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Today's Headlines Inflation
Interestingly enough, November was the month that – so far – brought the biggest inflationary pressures to Indonesia in 2023. The latest data published by Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) showed that headline inflation reached 0.38 percent month-on-month (m/m) in November 2023, higher than expected.
On Tuesday 5 December 2023 Indonesia Investments released the November 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report informs readers on the latest - and in our opinion most relevant - economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.
Inflationary pressures in October 2023 were in line with our expectations. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), Indonesia’s headline inflation was recorded at a rate of 0.17 percent month-on-month (m/m) in October 2023. On an annual basis, inflation accelerated to 2.56 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from 2.28 percent (y/y) in September 2023.
On Sunday 5 November 2023 Indonesia Investments released the October 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report informs readers on the latest - and in our opinion most relevant - economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.
As expected, inflationary pressures increased on a month-on-month (m/m) basis in September 2023. However, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation eased quite significantly as the impact of the subsidized fuel price hike in September 2022 is now removed from the data. Based on the data from Indonesia’s Statistical Office (BPS), Indonesia’s headline inflation decelerated to a rate of 2.28 percent (y/y).
In line with our forecast, Indonesia recorded mild deflation in August 2023. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Indonesian deflation was recorded at 0.02 percent month-on-month (m/m) in August 2023. But because deflation was milder than last year, Indonesia’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.27 percent (y/y).
On Thursday (07.09.2023) Indonesia Investments released the August 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report discusses a selection of key economic, political and social developments that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of August 2023.
Again, Indonesia experienced another month characterized by low inflation. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.21 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2023, significantly lower than the 0.64 percent (m/m) that was recorded in the same month one year earlier.
On 7 August 2023 Indonesia Investments released the July 2023 edition of its monthly report, zooming in on various economic, political and social matters that were relevant in the month of July 2023.
On 6 July 2023 Indonesia Investments released the June 2023 edition of its monthly report. In the report we present a number of analyses of topics (all related to the economy, politics and social matters) that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of June 2023.
Latest Columns Inflation
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the May 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:
On Thursday 12 June 2014 it was decided at the central bank’s Board of Governors’ Meeting to maintain the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This decision is consistent with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce Indonesia’s current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
Car sales in Indonesia declined 8 percent to 98,198 units in May 2014 from 106,811 units in the previous month. The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) said that the decline was the direct consequence of several public holidays (International Labour Day and the commemorations of Buddha’s birthday as well as ascensions of Prophet Muhammad and Jesus Christ). These holidays caused a lower car production rate and a reduced number of car deliveries to wholesale dealers.
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's balance of trade in April 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $1.96 billion, after having recorded a surplus of USD $0.67 billion in March. The balance of trade performance in April 2014 was particularly affected by the country's non-oil & gas balance, which turned from a surplus into a deficit, whereas a lower deficit in the oil & gas trade balance was realized (compared to March 2014). Meanwhile, inflation in May 2014 was slightly higher at 0.16 percent (mtm) from the previous month.
Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite index or IHSG) fell after the market responded to today's release of Indonesia's April trade deficit and May inflation, the index ended in the green zone due to foreign net buying and general positive Asian indices (influenced by higher stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week). Particularly Indonesia's big cap stocks in the miscellaneous industry and consumer sectors were popular as these were relatively cheap after having tumbled at the end of last week.
Today (02/06), Statistics Indonesia released various important economic data that provide more insight into the state of the Indonesian economy. Two of these indicators - inflation and trade - are discussed in this column. Head of Statistics Indonesia Suryamin announced that inflation in May 2014 rose by 0.16 percent (slightly higher than previously expected), while the April 2014 trade balance of Indonesia recorded a USD $1.96 billion deficit. These data were not well received by the market, evidenced by sharp rupiah depreciation.
The government of Indonesia will submit a new draft proposal for the 2014 Revised State Budget (APBN-P 2014) on 20 May 2014. Of the seven basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), three assumptions are proposed to be revised. These involve general economic growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, and crude oil lifting. The government felt that the assumptions need a revision as results in the first quarter of 2014 have not been up to expectation.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the April 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.
