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Today's Headlines Inflation

  • Consumer Price Index: Deflation Due to a Drop in Prices of Foodstuff Commodities

    Consumer Price Index: Deflation Due to a Drop in Prices of Foodstuff Commodities

    In September Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) deflated by 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), particularly due to a decline in food commodity prices. This is good news as we had detected some potential threats to Indonesia’s inflation rate in the August 2019 edition of out monthly report. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s core inflation has remained stable, signaling that deflation is not caused by weakening purchasing power.

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  • Consumer Price Index Update: Indonesian Inflation Accelerates on Tuition Fees, Food & Gold Prices

    Consumer Price Index Update: Indonesian Inflation Accelerates on Tuition Fees, Food & Gold Prices

    In line with expectations, Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated in August 2019. While the month of August normally brings mild deflation to Southeast Asia’s largest economy in the aftermath of the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations (a period when demand for food and transportation peaks), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s monthly inflation in August was recorded at 0.12 percent month-to-month (m/m).

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  • Consumer Price Index: Indonesian Inflation Eases Below Central Bank’s Target Range

    Consumer Price Index: Indonesian Inflation Eases Below Central Bank’s Target Range

    Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), which were released on 1 April 2019, Indonesian consumer prices continued to ease in March 2019 (in line with estimates). However, what is remarkable is that Indonesia’s annual inflation rate – 2.48 percent (y/y) in March 2019 – fell below the central bank’s target range (Bank Indonesia has set its inflation target for full-year 2019 at the range of 2.5–4.5 percent y/y). Indonesia’s latest inflation figure is the nation’s lowest inflation since December 2009. By Indonesian standards, inflation is currently remarkably low, hence it should manage to encourage household consumption.

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  • Consumer Price Index: Indonesia’s 2018 Inflation Slightly Below Our Forecast

    Consumer Price Index: Indonesia’s 2018 Inflation Slightly Below Our Forecast

    For the 4th year in a row Indonesian inflation was under control. Based on data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the nation’s annual headline inflation rate was 3.13 percent in full-year 2018. By Indonesian standards, that is a low inflation figure. The final figure even fell below the central government’s 3.5 percent (y/y) target that was set in the 2018 state budget and it fell below our (revised) prediction of 3.25 percent (y/y). But it did fall conveniently within the central bank’s wide target range of 2.5 – 4.5 percent (y/y).

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Latest Columns Inflation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) Completes Visit to Indonesia

    International Monetary Fund (IMF) Completes Visit to Indonesia

    An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Luis E. Breuer, visited Indonesia between 7 and 18 November 2016 to conduct the annual Article IV Consultation. The IMF team exchanged views with Indonesian government officials, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), and other public agencies, as well as representatives of the private sector, academics, and students on recent economic and financial market developments and the near-to-medium-term economic outlook.

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  • Analysis Indonesian Economy: GDP, Monetary Policy & Stability

    Analysis Indonesian Economy: GDP, Monetary Policy & Stability

    The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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  • What Is Next For Indonesian Interest Rates?

    What Is Next For Indonesian Interest Rates?

    On September 22, 2016, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its BI seven-day repo rate from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent, and this has changed parts of the long-term outlook for investors. Bank Indonesia also reduced its lending rate to 5.75 percent (from previous 5.50 percent), and the deposit rate to 4.50 percent (from previous 4.75 percent previously). This is significant because it shows that lending rates and interest rates have dropped to multi-year lows with the current policy changes.

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  • Update Consumer Price Index & Manufacturing PMI Indonesia

    Update Consumer Price Index & Manufacturing PMI Indonesia

    In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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  • Basic Economics: Inflation’s Effects on Gold Prices

    Basic Economics: Inflation’s Effects on Gold Prices

    Gold investment levels in Asia continue to hold close to their all-time highs, and many regional investors are asking questions about what is next for the bullish trend in precious metals. To answer this question, it is important to take another look at old-fashioned economics as a means for determining how price valuations are likely to unfold in the future. One of the most critical economic forces in these areas is the force of market inflation, and its influence on the yellow metal can be significant depending on the underlying fundamentals present in the global economy.

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  • Consumer Price Index Indonesia: July Inflation Expected at 1%

    Consumer Price Index Indonesia: July Inflation Expected at 1%

    The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's inflation to reach slightly below 1 percent month-to-month (m/m) in July 2016. According to central bank surveys, Indonesia's inflation accelerated in the first and second week of July by 1.18 percent (m/m) and 1.25 percent (m/m), respectively. Juda Agung, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said inflation tends to peak ahead of - and during - the Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July) but is set to ease in the third and fourth week.

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  • Islam & Indonesian Culture: Impact of Idul Fitri on the Economy

    Islam & Indonesian Culture: Impact of Idul Fitri on the Economy

    Next week Indonesia's financial and stock markets are closed for Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran or Eid al-Fitr), the celebrations that mark the end of the holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan). As usual, during the Ramadan month (that started in early June) business activities in Indonesia start to slow and this slowdown will reach its "peak" during the Idul Fitri holiday, a national holiday (from Monday 4 July to Friday 8 July) when some 17.6 million Indonesians who live and work in the bigger cities will return to their places of origin for a couple of days (a tradition called mudik).

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  • Economic Update Indonesia May 2016: Inflation & Manufacturing PMI

    Economic Update Indonesia May 2016: Inflation & Manufacturing PMI

    The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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  • Central Bank & Indonesia's Statistics Agency Expect Deflation in April 2016

    Central Bank & Indonesia's Statistics Agency Expect Deflation in April 2016

    The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation in April 2016 on the back of controlled food prices as the harvest season has arrived. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a central bank survey shows deflation of 0.33 percent month-to-month (m/m) during the first three weeks of April. Besides lower food prices, Martowardojo also attributes April deflation to the government's decision to cut fuel prices (premium gasoline and diesel) by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter per 1 April. This move led to a 4 percent drop in public transportation tariffs.

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  • Bank Indonesia Adopts New Reference Rate: 7-day Reverse Repurchase Rate

    Bank Indonesia Adopts New Reference Rate: 7-day Reverse Repurchase Rate

    The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (15/04) it will adopt a new monetary tool per 19 August 2016 that is to replace the existing BI rate which is considered too inefficient to influence market liquidity as it is not directly tied to Indonesia's money markets. The seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo), which stood at 5.50 percent in the central bank's last auction, is to become the nation's new benchmark. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo, who communicated through a teleconference from Washington DC, emphasized that the central bank will not change its monetary stance.

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