Domestic cement sales in Indonesia fell 2.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.5 million tons in January 2015. A fall in cement consumption was detected in almost all regions of Indonesia, possible related to heavy rains that have plagued several areas in January and led to a slowdown in construction and infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Widodo Santoso, Head of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said that the largest declines in cement sales in the first month of 2015 were recorded in Kalimantan and Sumatra.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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Indonesian cement sales in 2014 reached 59.9 million metric tons, up 3.3 percent from domestic sales in the previous year but below the target that was set by the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI). The ASI targeted a sales growth rate of between 3.5 percent and 4.0 percent year-on-year. This sales target had in fact already been revised down from 6 percent (y/y) due to weak cement sales amid uncertainties brought about by Indonesia’s ‘political year’ (legislative and presidential elections) as well as weak global commodity prices.

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Cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise as the new Indonesian government aims to ramp up infrastructure development while - in the long term - Indonesian banks will lower interest rates. Lower interest rates give rise to enhanced property development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The country’s three leading cement producers are expected to benefit significantly from these developments. These companies are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, and Holcim Indonesia.

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Although the combined performance of the four listed Indonesian cement companies in the first six months of 2013 is good with net profit rising 13.7 percent from the same period in 2012, the individual companies posted mixed results. Net profit of Semen Indonesia, Indonesia's largest cement producer, rose 22.9 percent, while net profit of Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, the country's second-largest cement producer, rose 11.8 percent. The other two cement producers, Holcim Indonesia and Semen Baturaja, posted a decline in net profit.

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Between the years 2011 and 2013 Indonesia’s cement industry seemed to be a goldmine. Double-digit growth in annual domestic cement sales – supported by strong growth in the country’s property sector, particularly on the islands of Java and Sumatra – attracted new foreign investment in cement production facilities, while established cement producers in the Archipelago invested in expansion of their cement production facilities.

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Semen Indonesia, the largest cement producer in Indonesia, announced in November 2018 that it has signed a conditional sales & purchase agreement with LafargeHolcim Ltd to acquire an 80.6 percent stake in Holcim Indonesia, the third-biggest cement producer in Indonesia.

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Over the past five years Indonesia's annual cement production capacity surged to above 100 million tons, while domestic cement consumption has difficulty to reach beyond 65 million tons (and Indonesia exports relatively few cement). The subsequent oversupply condition puts significant pressure on cement prices. So, what are the strategies of Indonesian cement producers in 2018?

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Cement consumption in Indonesia grew 5.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 41.1 million tons in the January-August 2017 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). This can be labelled a rebound compared to bleak growth of 1.8 percent (y/y) and 1.6 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. This year Indonesian cement demand could in fact reach 64 million tons.

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While domestic cement demand remains bleak, Indonesia's cement producers managed to raise their level of production capacity utilization due to a surge in exports. However, export growth will only slightly improve the structural oversupply situation in Indonesia's cement market. With installed annual production capacity estimated at 103.8 million tons of cement, nearly 40 million tons of capacity remains unused.

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For Indonesian cement producers it is vital to maintain their market share amid ongoing difficult times. With Indonesia's total installed annual cement production capacity now being around 100 million tons, while domestic demand is only expected to reach 65 million in 2017, cement players are facing weak prices amid a big oversupply, while foreign demand for Indonesian cement is yet to grow. Meanwhile, due to the arrival of various new cement players in Indonesia in recent years, competition for market share has become increasingly fierce.

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Cement sales in Indonesia weakened 5.4 percent month-on-month (m/m) - or 5.3 percent on an annual basis - to 5.7 million tons in November 2016. However, in the first 11 months of 2016 Indonesian cement sales reached a total of 56.5 million tons, up 2.8 percent (y/y) from domestic cement sales in the same period one year earlier. This modest growth is supported by government-led infrastructure development as well as smelter and power plant development. The housing market, however, remained flat. Also intense rainfall managed to curtail the progress of projects. Below, a snapshot of our latest report.

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Indonesia's cement exports are targeted to reach 1.5 million tons in 2016, up 50 percent (y/y) from the realization of approximately 1 million tons in the preceding year. Up to the end of July 2016 Indonesian cement exports had already risen by 63 percent (y/y) this year. Although coming from a low base, rapidly increasing cement exports are highly welcome to offset the nation's rising cement oversupply. Due to the arrival of new cement producers and production expansion of existing cement players, while domestic cement consumption remains bleak, there occurred a big oversupply.

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The year 2015 was a sluggish year for Indonesia's cement industry amid the country's slowing economic growth. Total cement sales only rose 1.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 61 million tons, the slowest growth pace since 2009. In the first month of 2016, however, a positive sign was detected. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesian cement sales rose 4.4 percent (y/y) to 5.14 million tons in January 2016 (from the same month one year earlier) on the back of government-led infrastructure development.

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As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.

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