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Today's Headlines Export Ban
Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, may need to scrap its plan to build a USD $500 million smelter in Bahodopi (South Sulawesi) as its strategic Chinese partner, for now, backed away from the project due to falling nickel prices. Initially both sides agreed to form a joint venture for the establishment of the smelter.
The management of gold and copper miner Freeport Indonesia is optimistic that negotiations with the central government will be completed before the Idul Fitri celebrations in the last week of June 2017. If an agreement is reached, then the case will not require arbitration. Both parties are negotiating over a contract dispute that also prompted the subsidiary of the United States-based mining giant Freeport-McMoRan to wind down operations (and fire staff) at its Grasberg mine in Papua.
The nickel price is expected to remain under pressure up to (at least) the second half of 2018 due to the structural oversupply in the world market. So far this year the nickel price has fallen 9.38 percent to USD $9,080 per ton (London Metal Exchange). Analysts of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say nickel - used in stainless steel - is the worst-performing metal so far this year.
Although Indonesian nickel miner Vale Indonesia saw its sales rise by 32.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $143.95 million in the first quarter of 2017 supported by the 24.1 percent (y/y) growth in the (average) nickel matte price in Q1-2017, the company is pessimistic about the direction of the nickel price in the remainder of 2017 as inventory levels remain high on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange.
The dispute between Freeport Indonesia and the Indonesian government may escalate now the former said it considers to seek international arbitration over the government's alleged breaching and violation of the existing Contract of Work (CoW) between both sides. Ever since the passing of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law) there has been a high degree of uncertainty in Indonesia's mining sector.
A coalition of civil society groups is ready to challenge Indonesia's new mining rules at the Supreme Court next week, specifically those rules that impact negatively on the longstanding Contracts of Work (Kontrak Karya) as well as the (re-)opening of nickel ore and bauxite exports. Late last week, the Indonesian government announced to ease the controversial ban on exports of mineral ore. The government was immediately criticized for this "flip-flop policy". The move could flood global markets and put pressure on prices.
Entrepreneurs in Indonesia urge the central government to provide clarity about the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals that is set to be implemented on 12 January 2017, provided the government will not alter its policy. Initially, the full ban would be introduced on 12 January 2014 in an effort to boost the downstream mining industries (hence becoming an exporter of mining products that are positioned higher in the value chain rather than remaining dependent on raw materials that are very vulnerable to volatile price movements).
Indonesian newspaper Bisnis Indonesia printed an interesting interview with Vice President Jusuf Kalla on Wednesday (19/10). Kalla is one of the few political veterans of Indonesia, having been born during the Japanese occupancy of the Dutch East Indies, before Indonesia existed. He was VP under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004-2009), leader of Golkar, Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare (2001-2004), and Minister of Trade & Industry (1999-2000). Before he became fully committed to politics he developed a successful business empire.
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Luhut Pandjaitan informed local media that the government of Indonesia may allow more time for the nation's miners to build smelting facilities. Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining originally banned mineral ore exports from Indonesia by January 2014 (forcing miners to process the material domestically into value-added products first). However, due to the lack of adequate smelting facilities this ban was delayed by three years (January 2017).
Business activities at Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), one of Indonesia’s largest copper miners, could be disrupted as the subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp is yet to obtain a recommendation letter (from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry) to renew its 6-month copper concentrate export permit (which expired on 20 May 2016). The recommendation from the Energy Ministry is needed to obtain the export permit from Indonesia's Trade Ministry.
Latest Columns Export Ban
On Wednesday (15/01), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 12,095 per US dollar at 14:15 local Jakarta time. Global markets are again in anticipation of the Federal Reserve tapering issue after the Fed officials of Philadelphia and Dallas stated that they support an as-soon-as-possible winding down of the US stimulus program after the release of strong US retail data. The tapering will make it very hard for emerging currencies to gain against the US dollar. At 28-29 January, the Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting.
On Sunday (12/01), one of the most important new laws in the recent history of Indonesia came in force. Mining Law Nr.4/2009, which prohibits the export of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, was implemented. However, it was not implemented in its original form. The president of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, signed a last-minute regulation which softens the impact of the new law by allowing mining companies to continue exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead and iron ore concentrate until 2017.
Several factors can be mentioned that may explain the fall of the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated as IHSG) on Monday's trading day (06/01). These include a sell off of mining stocks (which subsequently negatively affected agricultural stocks) because of the approaching implementation of the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, the continuing depreciating rupiah exchange rate, the impact of falling stock indices across Asia, and the higher price of 12 kilogram-cylinders of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is scheduled to take effect on 12 January 2014, is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown of Indonesia's total exports and thus will put more pressure on the country's current account deficit. Despite two consecutive months with trade surpluses (October and November 2013), Indonesia's wide current account deficit is still a concern to investors as well as the government although the deficit has shown an easing trend in recent quarters.
After having reported yesterday (26/12) that Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, stipulated in Mining Law No.4/2009 (which is set to become in force from 12 January 2014), may be delayed, more and more signs are pointing towards a postponement of this law. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, said that the government is considering to delay the implementation of the law by two or three years as the ban will cause increased unemployment and the cease of mining operations.
The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Wednesday (18/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a depreciating rupiah against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR was set at IDR 12,151 per US dollar, a 0.39 percent fall from yesterday (17/12), while in the Bloomberg Dollar Index the currency depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,168 per US dollar at 16:55 in the afternoon, local Jakarta time.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.
Starting from 12 January 2014, the export of all mineral-ores are banned in Indonesia. This controversial new policy, stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (on Minerals and Coal Mining), was agreed upon by the nine fractions in Commission VII of the Indonesian parliament (DPR). Through this new law, the government intends to increase the value of exports while reducing dependence on raw exports and thus becoming less vulnerable to price downswings on the global commodities market.
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