The Indonesian rupiah depreciated sharply, while the country’s stocks fell. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.86 percent to IDR 13,148 per US dollar on Thursday (07/05). This performance was in line with the performance of other Asian currencies. Of the 11 Asian currencies that are followed by Bloomberg, only Japan’s yen appreciated against the US dollar. The Indian rupee was the worst performer today, weakening 1.06 percent against the greenback.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is again plagued by selling pressures on Wednesday’s trading day (29/04). After today’s first trading session the index was down 2.58 percent to 5,106.73 points. The decline is caused by the persistence of the negative sentiments that have been felt over the past couple of days (explained below) coupled with a discrepancy in economic growth forecasts between the Indonesian government and the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia).

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Most Southeast Asian stock markets declined ahead of the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve which started today (28/04). Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to limit losses. After the 3.49 percent fall yesterday, the IHSG was down 1 percent after the first trading session today. However, near the closure of the market the index improved markedly resulting in a small loss of 0.06 percent only. Due to severe losses over the past couple of trading sessions, some oversold blue chip shares became attractive.

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Over the past week the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.60 percent to IDR 12,941 per US dollar (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate). At the start of the week the rupiah experienced severe pressure as market participants were concerned about Indonesia’s slowing economic growth. However, in the second half of the week, Indonesia’s currency somewhat improved as the US dollar was negatively affected by weak US economic data. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah finished at IDR 12,922 per US dollar on Friday (24/04).

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In line with other Asian emerging market currencies, the Indonesian rupiah is depreciating against the US dollar on Monday’s trading day (20/04). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 12,882 per US dollar at 13:00 pm local Jakarta time. However, Head of Research at NH Korindo Securities Reza Priyambada believes that the currency cannot depreciate much further as positive economic data provides enough support for the rupiah.

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Over the past two days the Indonesian rupiah has performed strongly against the US dollar. The primary reason for this performance is Indonesia’s March trade surplus. On Wednesday (15/04), Statistics Indonesia announced that the country’s March trade surplus totaled USD $1.13 billion. This is Indonesia’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus and the highest one since December 2013. Moreover, the USD $1.13 billion March surplus was nearly twice the size that analysts had forecast previously.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are performing well on Monday’s trading day (06/04) after weak US economic data suggests that the US central bank (Federal Reserve) will still refrain from raising its key interest rate too soon. Weaker-than-expected US jobs data caused that most Southeast Asian stock markets strengthened today. Moreover, the rupiah also felt the positive impact. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had appreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 12,950 per US dollar by 15:17 pm local Jakarta time.

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Indonesian stocks continued to climb strongly after the market opened on Tuesday (31/03). The country’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged nearly one percent. Several external and internal factors are at play here. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve indicated over the past week that it may not raise its key interest rate too soon, leading to investors’ appetite for emerging market assets. Secondly, Chinese policymakers provided room for increased infrastructure spending and monetary stimulus.

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Whereas the Indonesian rupiah is depreciating on Monday’s trading day (30/03), Indonesian stocks climb significantly. At 14:15 pm local Jakarta time, the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had gained 0.93 percent to 5,444.27 points. In line with other Asian markets, Indonesia’s stock index felt the positive impact of Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s statements on Friday (27/03). Yellen indicated in a speech in San Francisco that it is riskier to raise US interest rates too fast than to raise them too slowly.

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Despite some protests in Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta, the Indonesian government raised the price of subsidized low-octane gasoline (premium) from IDR 6,900 (USD $0.53) per liter to IDR 7,400 (USD $0.56) over the weekend (a 7.2 percentage point price increase). Meanwhile, the price of subsidized diesel (solar) was raised from IDR 6,400 (USD $0.49) to IDR 6,900 per liter (+7.8 percent). The price increase was considered necessary as crude oil prices had increased over the past month, while the rupiah continued to depreciate.

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At the start of the new week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was able to continue to climb, supported by positive Asian indices. Today, investors took advantage of discounted stocks in Asia as markets had fallen after the Federal Reserve's announcement last week that the quantitative easing program would be wound down further as well as a possible US interest rate hike in 2015 and 2016. However, the IHSG was also vulnerable to profit taking. Therefore, today's gain was limited.

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The US Federal Reserve's plan to increase interest rates is a serious threat to the stock and bonds markets of emerging markets, including Indonesia, in 2014. The higher Fed Fund rate will result in a high cost bonds-climate in Indonesia. The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday (19/03) that it continues to cut its quantitative easing program (QE3) by USD $10 billion in March 2014 as well as aims for an interest rate hike six months after the 'tapering' has ended. With the current pace, QE3 is expected to end in December 2014.

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We expected that Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (the country's benchmark stock index also known as IHSG) would continue to weaken on Wednesday's trading day (19/03) but net buying by foreign investors managed to push the index back into green territory. During the first two days of this week, the IHSG fell as euphoria over Joko Widodo's announcement to run for president in the 2014 elections faded. Last week, the market showed that they approve of Widodo as the IHSG climbed 3.23 percent on Friday (14/03).

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Previously we were hoping that if global stock indices would turn positive, it could limit the fall of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) as the 'Jokowi effect' has definately worn off. On Tuesday (18/03), investors continued to engage in profit taking causing the IHSG to plunge 1.45 percent to 4,805.61 points. While most Asian indices were up, influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous trading day (17/03), the IHSG deviated sharply from the Asian trend today.

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There were two options with regard to today's trading day (Monday 17 March 2014). First, the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index also known as IHSG) could rise further after its impressive 3.23 percent jump last Friday (14/03), and secondly, the bullish market could become vulnerable to profit taking as the 'Jokowi effect' tones down and no other factors could trigger positive market sentiments. It turned out to be the second option. Not even sharp rupiah appreciation could push the index in the green zone.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its impressive rebound in 2014, supported by Indonesia's improving economic fundamentals as well as increased political certainty due to the nomination of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) as the main opposition party's (PDI-P) presidential candidate. As such, the 'Jokowi effect' managed to offset negative market sentiments brought on by the (disputed) referendum in Crimea that showed that 97 percent of voters support a split from Ukraine. This intensified political tensions between the West and Russia.

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Despite technical indicators pointing toward a potential rise of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), foreign net selling on Wednesday's trading day (12/03) caused the 0.42 percent decline to 4,684.38 points. Only two sectors recorded a positive performance today: consumer goods and property. Companies that did particularly well were Danayasa Arthatama, Metropolitan Land, Agung Podomoro Land, Siantar Top, and Kedawung Setia Industrial.

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Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa said that the rupiah exchange rate's new equilibrium is at IDR 11,000 per US dollar. As the economic fundamentals of Indonesia's economy have improved in recent months - evidenced by the easing current account deficit and inflation - the rupiah has shown a strong performance, appreciating around six percent against the US dollar in 2014 (year to date). In fact, Rajasa warned that the rupiah should not strengthen too much as this impacts negatively on Indonesia's trade balance.

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Although immediately plunging 0.33 percent to IDR 11,478 per US dollar after its opening on Monday (10/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.57 percent to IDR 11,375 per US dollar by 14:00 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah's performance today is in sharp contrast with other Asian currencies. As US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected and Chinese exports fell sharply (18.1 percent year-on-year) in February 2014, the US dollar appreciated against most Asian currencies.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its good performance on Friday (07/03) as it had appreciated 0.49 percent to IDR 11,425 per US dollar at 14:22 local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency rose for a fifth consecutive week. Main reasons for this good performance are the improving global economy as well as the improving economy of Indonesia. Foreign funds are again entering Indonesia as investors have renewed confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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