The US Federal Reserve finally decided to raise the Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting (15-16 December) on a considerable improvement in US labor market conditions (the US unemployment rate having fallen to 5 percent) and US inflation projected to meet the Fed's 2 percent target over the medium term. After this announcement US stocks soared. Emerging markets were not hit by severe capital outflows after the rate hike. Asian stock indices strengthened sharply on Thursday morning (17/12).

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Stock markets in Asia are experiencing rough weather as investors pull funds out of emerging markets. By 11:25 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had plunged 1.11 percent to 4,344.69 points, while the rupiah had depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 14,068 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Investors are seeking safe(r) haven assets as the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key Fed Fund Rate (for the first time in almost a decade) at its next FOMC meeting (scheduled for 15-16 December).

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday morning (30/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 0.84 percent to 4,522.09 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 13,830 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 11:15 am local Jakarta time. Negative sentiments still stem from China and the looming Fed Fund Rate hike in December, while there are few to none domestic sentiments that can support the nation's assets.

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Due to heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike in December, the US dollar was pushed to a seven-month high today. As a consequence, the rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,722 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Moreover, the strong US dollar impacted negatively on commodity prices. Many commodity prices, including oil, copper and nickel plunged severely on today's trading day. For key commodity producers, which include Indonesia, falling commodity prices put pressure on assets.

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Indonesian assets produced a strong finish on Friday (20/11). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah both strengthened considerably on increased certainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, while China announced it implemented more measures to encourage economic growth, giving rise to a stronger yuan (supporting stronger emerging currencies in Asia). Indonesian stocks rose 0.94 percent to 4,561.33 points, while the rupiah appreciated 1.10 percent to IDR 13,623 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Across the world, stock indices plunged on persistent concern about lower commodity prices (especially as crude oil dived to a two-month low and may start to flirt with the USD $40 per barrel level again), concern about slowing credit growth in China, while markets are also bracing for a possible US interest rate hike in December (a move that will particularly trigger capital outflows from riskier emerging market assets). This month markets are under severe selling pressure after experiencing a rally in October.

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Asian shares are facing pressures on Friday (13/11) due to lower oil prices and increasing expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points in December. Resource stocks are dragging down stock indices in Australia, Hong Kong and China by more than one percent. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, however, is bucking the trend in Asia, having risen 0.51 percent to 4,485.12 points by 10:20 am local Jakarta time amid red indices in Asia. Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening against Asian currencies but not as sharply as initially predicted.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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Although Indonesian stocks managed to rebound, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar today (25/08). However, rupiah weakening was limited as Bank Indonesia was closely monitoring and intervening in markets to support the rupiah. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 14,054 per US dollar. As significant further rupiah weakening is assumed to seriously undermine confidence in the rupiah, the central bank’s intervention efforts are well received by investors.

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The Indonesian rupiah touched a 17-year low as the currency continued to depreciate amid persistent bullish US dollar momentum. The rupiah weakened to IDR 13,539 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (31/07). The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday (30/07) that US gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 2.3 percent (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2015, giving rise to heightened expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate soon.

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Most stock markets and currencies in Southeast Asia weakened on Friday (29/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and the rupiah. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.40 percent to 5,216.38 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 13,224 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Over the past week, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened primarily due to the Greek debt crisis, looming higher US interest rates and the lack of positive domestic factors.

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In line with other Asian indices, Indonesian stocks rose on Tuesday (26/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.62 percent to 5,320.90 points. Positive sentiments did not originate from the USA as US stock markets were closed for a holiday yesterday but primarily stemmed from China where the economic planning agency announced to implement several new policies in a bid to boost the sluggish economy. The rupiah, however, depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 13,220 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Over the past week, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,850 per US dollar on Friday (17/04). Only a month ago, investors and policymakers were alarmed when the rupiah touched IDR 13,245 per US dollar, a 17-year low. This column discusses the factors that caused the strengthening of the rupiah in recent weeks. However, amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA, this development should be short-term only.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that, besides global volatility caused by uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, the rupiah has been - and remains - under pressure due to Indonesia’s increasing private sector debt and the wide current account deficit. Moreover, as subsidiaries of multinational companies in Indonesia tend to send back dividends to the foreign parent companies in the second quarter (implying rising US dollar demand), the rupiah is plagued by additional pressures up to June.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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The Indonesian rupiah strengthened on Monday (16/02) as the country’s twin current account and trade balances improved, while the US dollar weakened on disappointing US retail sales and on optimism that Greece will remain a member of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Finance Ministry held a successful auction today in which it sold IDR 12 trillion (USD $942 million) of conventional bonds. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,753 per US dollar based on Monday (16/02).

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