A coalition of civil society groups is ready to challenge Indonesia's new mining rules at the Supreme Court next week, specifically those rules that impact negatively on the longstanding Contracts of Work (Kontrak Karya) as well as the (re-)opening of nickel ore and bauxite exports. Late last week, the Indonesian government announced to ease the controversial ban on exports of mineral ore. The government was immediately criticized for this "flip-flop policy". The move could flood global markets and put pressure on prices.

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The Industry Ministry of Indonesia targets to see the contribution of the manufacturing industry toward the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) rise further above 20 percent in 2017. This growth is supported by the start of operations of several new smelters. I Gusti Putu Suryawirawan, Director General of Metal, Machinery, Transportation Equipment & Electronic Industries at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, said ten new smelters will start the production phase this year.

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The government of Indonesia revised rules regarding the ban on unprocessed ore exports. Originally, Southeast Asia's largest economy (a key exporter of natural resources) planned to ban exports of mineral ore per 12 January 2014 in a bid to encourage the development of domestic higher value smelting facilities (part of the New Mining Law that was unveiled in 2009). However, a three-year delay was announced (through a presidential regulation) on the evening before the ban would be imposed as local processing capacity was still insufficient. Now, three years later, there have been more revisions.

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Entrepreneurs in Indonesia urge the central government to provide clarity about the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals that is set to be implemented on 12 January 2017, provided the government will not alter its policy. Initially, the full ban would be introduced on 12 January 2014 in an effort to boost the downstream mining industries (hence becoming an exporter of mining products that are positioned higher in the value chain rather than remaining dependent on raw materials that are very vulnerable to volatile price movements).

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Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Luhut Pandjaitan informed local media that the government of Indonesia may allow more time for the nation's miners to build smelting facilities. Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining originally banned mineral ore exports from Indonesia by January 2014 (forcing miners to process the material domestically into value-added products first). However, due to the lack of adequate smelting facilities this ban was delayed by three years (January 2017).

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Business activities at Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), one of Indonesia’s largest copper miners, could be disrupted as the subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp is yet to obtain a recommendation letter (from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry) to renew its 6-month copper concentrate export permit (which expired on 20 May 2016). The recommendation from the Energy Ministry is needed to obtain the export permit from Indonesia's Trade Ministry.

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By September 2016 the Indonesian government plans to have revised regulations regarding exports of mineral ore, part of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law). Per January 2014 mineral ore exports from Indonesia should have been banned altogether as the government aims to boost domestic smelter development and reduce the country's dependence on raw material exports. However, a last-minute regulation, signed in January 2014, softened this ban and allowed exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead, and iron ore concentrates until 2017. Now the government may decide for a two-year delay up to 2019.

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There is still the possibility that Freeport Indonesia, subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, will not be allowed to continue exporting copper concentrate. The existing export permit expires on Thursday (28/01) and the Indonesian government is seemingly unwilling to renew the 6-month permit as Freeport has still not send the USD $530 million deposit for the development of a new smelter. Freeport, on the other hand, says this deposit is not in line with existing agreements.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued an export recommendation letter for copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), meaning that the company can resume copper concentrate exports for another six-month period after the previous permit expired on 22 September. Bambang Gatot, Director General for Coal and Minerals at the Energy Ministry, said NNT has met all requirements - including those related to NNT's commitment to establish domestic smelting facilities - in order to obtain the export recommendation letter.

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As Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources declined to issue a recommendation for the extension of Newmont Nusa Tenggara’s export permit, operations at the Batu Hijau mine (an open-pit gold and copper mine located on the island of Sumbawa in the eastern part of Indonesia) have become uncertain. The six-month permit for copper concentrate exports of copper miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara, a unit of US-based Newmont Mining Corp, expired on Friday (18/09) and was not extended as the company failed to fulfill the government’s requirements regarding smelter development.

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ICRA Indonesia released an analysis of the economic impact of the ban on export of raw minerals. The ban - stipulated by the new 2009 Mining Law - became effective per 12 January 2014 (although in a milder form as some mineral ore exports are allowed under specific terms) and aims at boosting domestic processing. However, it led to great concern among domestic and foreign stakeholders as its implications on the economy of Indonesia - a global leader in exports of mineral resources - were unknown.

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Freeport Indonesia stated that the company's production of copper concentrate plunged since the Indonesian government implemented the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals on 12 January 2014. Currently, Freeport only produces to supply Smelting Gresik, Indonesia's first copper smelter and refinery. As such, Freeport only operates at 45 percent of production capacity regarding copper concentrate. According to Freeport Indonesia's spokeswoman Daisy Primayanti, production of copper concentrate fell to 3,150 tons per day.

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Mahendra Siregar, Head of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) is optimistic that realized investment in Indonesia can reach over IDR 100 trillion (USD $8.6 billion) in the first quarter of 2014, particularly supported by foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country's automotive and electronics sectors. Siregar uttered his optimistic view at the groundbreaking of the new Toyota factory in Karawang (West Java) on Tuesday (25/02). Foreign investors remain buoyant on the potential of Indonesia's rapidly expanding consumer force.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, in effect since 12 January 2014, will result in slowing economic growth in several regions in the eastern part of Indonesia as these regions are main sources of mineral production. Doddy Zulverdi, Head of the Economic Assessment Group in Bank Indonesia's Department of Economic and Monetary Policy, said that Sulawesi and Kalimantan will post slowing economic growth this year.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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The BKPM announced that three processing and mineral concentrate refineries (smelters) are in the construction phase and expected to be ready for production in Indonesia this year. Two of the three smelters will process and purify iron ore while the third will process bauxite ore into chemical grade alumina. The three smelters are owned by Indonesia Chemical Alumina. This company, a joint venture between Aneka Tambang (Antam) and Japan, operates in West Kalimantan.

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According to Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri, the country's trade deficit will continue between 2014 and 2016 (although expecting to show an easing trend) but will turn into a surplus from 2017 onwards. One of the most influential factors that will impact on the trade balance is Indonesia's raw ore export ban, in effect as of Sunday 12 January 2014. In the short term, this ban will limit Indonesia's exports but in the long term, from 2017 onward, it will lead to high added-value exports.

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On Sunday (12/01), one of the most important new laws in the recent history of Indonesia came in force. Mining Law Nr.4/2009, which prohibits the export of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, was implemented. However, it was not implemented in its original form. The president of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, signed a last-minute regulation which softens the impact of the new law by allowing mining companies to continue exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead and iron ore concentrate until 2017.

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Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is scheduled to take effect on 12 January 2014, is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown of Indonesia's total exports and thus will put more pressure on the country's current account deficit. Despite two consecutive months with trade surpluses (October and November 2013), Indonesia's wide current account deficit is still a concern to investors as well as the government although the deficit has shown an easing trend in recent quarters.

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After having reported yesterday (26/12) that Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, stipulated in Mining Law No.4/2009 (which is set to become in force from 12 January 2014), may be delayed, more and more signs are pointing towards a postponement of this law. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, said that the government is considering to delay the implementation of the law by two or three years as the ban will cause increased unemployment and the cease of mining operations.

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