Coal production in Indonesia fell 21 percent (y/y) to 97 million tons in the first quarter of 2015 as the country’s coal miners cut production volumes amid low coal prices. Some smaller Indonesian miners may even have stopped production altogether as production costs exceed coal prices. According to data from Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, 79 million tons of coal were exported in the first quarter, while the remaining 18 million tons were absorbed by the domestic market.

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The coal mining industry continued its downward trend in 2014 amid weak global coal demand and an oversupply on the market. The benchmark Newcastle port thermal coal price fell 29 percent (y/y) over 2014 and declined a further 8 percent in the first quarter of 2015. As a result, Indonesian coal miners reported mostly weak 2014 corporate earnings. However, Indonesian miners are concerned that two new regulations will cause more problems. The Indonesian government plans to raise coal royalties and introduce mandatory letters of credit.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have generally weakened in 2014, evidencing that the coal mining industry, which was a lucrative business in the 2000s during the commodities boom (until 2011), is still experiencing a slowdown amid global economic trouble. The sluggish global economy has resulted in weak demand for commodities such as coal and crude palm oil (two important foreign exchange earners of Indonesia). Particularly slowing economic growth in China is a concern.

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Bad news for Indonesian coal miners as the government of Indonesia plans to raise coal royalties in March 2015 in a bid to increase revenue from the natural resources sector. Apart from raising royalties, the government will also implement measures to enhance monitoring in the coal mining sector (as illegal coal shipments and tax avoidance are a major problem). The plan to nearly double coal royalties are particularly expected to impact negatively on smaller miners and new firms that focus on the production of low-quality coal.

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Bob Kamandanu, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), advises the government of Indonesia to cut the country’s coal production by about 50 million tons and cap coal exports at 300 million tons in 2015 in an effort to boost global coal prices which are currently touching an eight-year low amid the sluggish global economy (particularly weakening coal demand from China) in combination with a coal oversupply. Indonesia is the world’s leading exporter of thermal coal which is primarily used in electricity generation.

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Indonesian coal production reached 213 million tons in the first half of 2014, a 7.6 percentage point growth from the same period in the previous year (198 million tons), as coal miners have been boosting coal output amid sluggish international coal prices. Approximately 75 percent of this output (158 million tons) was exported abroad. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal producer and exporter. The country’s coal primarily consists of the medium-quality type (between 5100 and 6100 cal/gram) and the low-quality type (below 5100 cal/gram).

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Indonesian state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) said that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - is expected to nearly double domestic consumption of thermal coal over the next eight years in an attempt to meet the nation's growing electricity demand. Moreover, coal, of which the country has huge reserves at its disposal, is regarded a better fuel source in electricity generation compared to expensive diesel. At present, many power stations in Indonesia are still diesel-powered.

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Coal production in Indonesia stood at approximately 110 metric tons in the first quarter of 2014, thus little changed from the production volume in the same period last year. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that - despite the decline in coal prices - the first quarter result implies that a quarter of this year's production target, which is set at 421 million tons, has been achieved. Indonesia is one of the world's top producers and exporters of coal. This fossil fuel accounts for about 85 percent of the country's mining revenues.

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PTT Plc, a Thailand-based energy company which conducts coal mining activities in Sebuku, Jambayan and Laung (all on the island of Kalimantan), is planning to list its subsidiary, Sakari Resources, on the Indonesia Stock Exchange through an initial public offering (IPO). PTT Plc has been active in Indonesia's mining sector since 2008 when it acquired a 94 percent stake in (Singapore-listed) Sakari Resources. After the acquisition, Sakari Resources delisted from the Singapore Stock Exchange.

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Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Bob Kamandanu expects that Indonesia's coal production will decline about 5 percent to 400 million tons in 2014 after the government asked miners to scale back production rates in order to safeguard future domestic supplies as the country needs sufficient energy resources for its future energy supply. Amid low domestic demand, the government asked Indonesian coal mining companies to limit the country's total coal output at 397 million metric tons.

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Currently, coal certainly ranks among the most interesting commodities. On the one hand, Indonesia expressed its commitment to reduce consumption of this dirty fossil fuel (that is especially used as raw material for the generation of electricity in power plants but also in various manufacturing industries such as the cement industry and textile industry) as the country seeks to become ‘carbon neutral’ by 2060 (although many doubt to what extent Indonesia is really committed to this ambition; after all, it has more immediate concerns such as the dozens of millions of Indonesians living below, and just above, the national poverty threshold).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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Only a few months after the Indonesian government had imposed a price cap on mandatory sales of local coal to Indonesia's state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) under the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme, the government now plans to revise this regulation. Coming Tuesday (31/07) a high-level meeting is to take place where decisions will be taken.

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Through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 19/2018 on the Procedures for Determining Benchmark Prices of Metal and Coal Sales as well as through Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry Regulation No. 1395 K/30/MEM/2018 on the Selling Price of Coal for the Electricity Supply for the Public Interest the Indonesian government confirmed a new set of rules in the coal mining sector, specifically regarding coal that is sold domestically under the domestic market obligation.

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The big Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange expect to raise their production volumes in 2018 amid rising global demand and the subsequent stronger coal price. Moreover, most local coal companies were heavily affected by bad weather in 2017 and therefore their output had been curtailed naturally, while coal prices had actually been skyrocketing since mid-2016.

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A number of listed coal mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are eager to raise production capacity amid attractive coal prices. One way to boost production capacity is through the acquisition of other coal miners. Indonesia's key thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - the monthly benchmark price that is set by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - rose slightly to USD $94.80 per metric ton in November 2017.

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After years of concern amid scandals, debt woes and low coal prices, there seems light at the end of the tunnel for Indonesia's largest coal producer Bumi Resources, a listed miner controlled by the Bakrie Group. Although its audited earnings (covering full-year 2016) will be released next month, a source within Bumi Resources said the company will post its first profit since 2011. The miner's net income is expected to reach USD $101.6 million, improving significantly from a net loss of USD $2 billion in the preceding year.

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The soaring benchmark thermal coal price of the Indonesian government (called harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, should boost earnings of listed Indonesian coal miner Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam in 2017. The HBA price nearly doubled to USD $102 per metric ton in December from the year-start. Besides the rising coal price, the company should also see improving corporate earnings due to its expected rising sales volume.

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The sharply rallying coal price in the second half of 2016 and its strong cash position (a sign of financial strength and liquidity) is the right recipe for listed Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy to post strong corporate earnings this year. In fact, Indonesian securities company Trimegah Securities believes that Harum Energy is the coal miner that will benefit the most of all listed coal miners on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) because 95 percent of its coal sales is sold on the spot market.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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