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Today's Headlines Joko Widodo
Business and politics are highly related to each other and therefore it is worthwhile to take a look at chief executive officers' (CEOs) confidence in Indonesia's national politics as well as their expectations for Indonesia's future political conditions. Local media company Kontan recently issued its latest Kontan CEO Confidence Index (KCCI).
Indonesian Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution said the Indonesian government will announce the 16th economic policy package on Thursday morning (31/08). This new package will aim to boost investment and economic growth of Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Traditionally, the Indonesian President reveals the government's proposal for next year's state budget one day ahead of the Independence Day celebrations. This time, President Joko Widodo announced a rather ambitious target in terms of economic growth. The central government proposes the GDP growth target figure for 2018 at 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y). The budget proposal requires approval from the House of Representatives (DPR).
After having encouraged capital inflows into Indonesia through the tax amnesty program, Indonesian President Joko Widodo now also urges those multinational companies that operate in Indonesia but are listed abroad to go-public on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. He particularly targets those companies that generate more than 50 percent of their revenue from Indonesia, or, have more than 50 percent of their total assets in Indonesia.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged his cabinet members to guard - or even better: to improve - household consumption in Indonesia as this would have an immediate impact on Indonesia's overall macroeconomic growth. Over the past five years, the nation's household consumption accounted for about 56 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP).
The government of Indonesia is nearing completion of the forming of holding companies for state-owned enterprises that are active in the oil & gas and mining sectors. It now only requires signing by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Last year Widodo approved plans to create five state holding companies in energy, mining, construction, housing, and financial services. Fully state-owned aluminium producer Inalum and energy company Pertamina will be the holding companies for activities in the mining and oil & gas sectors, respectively.
During his state visit to India, Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed three memoranda of understanding. Widodo is on a three-day visit to India (12-13 December) and Iran (14 December) to meet political and corporate leaders and to enhance business and trade relations with the two countries. Indonesia's seventh president is accompanied by Darmin Nasution (Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs), Pratikno (State Secretary), and Thomas Lembong (Chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board, or BKPM).
On 23 October 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy and political-related topics such as Bank Indonesia's interest rates, analysis of two-years under Joko Widodo, the tax amnesty program, the trans-pacific partnership, current account balance, and more.
Contrary to our earlier predictions, Indonesia's tax amnesty program has been on a roll in September 2016. The program is designed to boost the government's tax revenue by offering tax evaders attractive rates to come clean and declare their previously undeclared assets (whether stashed at home or abroad in the so-called tax havens). Those who join the program can also repatriate offshore assets into Indonesia, into specifically prepared investment instruments where the funds need to stay for at least three years.
The eleventh meeting of the Group of 20 strongest economies (G20) started today in Hangzhou (China). It is the first time a G20 summit is hosted by the world's second-largest economy, a market that has been plagued by an economic slowdown over the past six years. The summit was opened by China's President Xi Jinping who urged leaders to avoid "empty talks" and instead to focus on boosting trade and the world economy which is currently at a critical juncture reflected by high market volatility. Critics, however, point out that China is known for implementing trade barriers.
Latest Columns Joko Widodo
The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) announced that growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia has slowed in the first nine months of 2014. In the first three quarters Indonesia saw the influx of IDR 228.3 trillion (USD $18.7 billion) worth of FDI, a 14.6 percentage point increase year-on-year (y/y). However, this growth pace is much lower than the 21.3 percent point growth of FDIs in the first nine months of 2013. In US dollar terms the decline was even greater as the rupiah has been depreciating.
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have rebounded on Friday due to several internal and external factors. During the first trading session on Friday (17/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) surged 0.94 percent to 4,998.14 points. Meanwhile, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 12,228 per US dollar by 12:30 pm local Jakarta time. Why do Indonesian stocks and the rupiah perform well on Friday?
Domestic steel sales in Indonesia are expected to rise 6 percent y/y to 15.1 million tons in 2014. Meanwhile, the global average steel price has been USD $536 per ton this year, implying that the market value of Indonesian steel sales is to reach USD $8 billion this year. In recent years, the country’s steel sales have been rising on development of infrastructure, defense industry, and manufacturing. The sales are expected to continue rising in the years ahead due to commitment of the government to boost infrastructure development.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service stated that it maintains a stable outlook for Indonesia’s sovereign and corporate debt rating in the next quarters due to the country’s healthy credit fundamentals, solid macroeconomy, and reduced political tensions. Moody’s believes that Indonesia’s fundamentals are strong enough to offset the negative impact of external pressures such as looming higher US interest rates and slowing economic growth in China. Moody’s had raised Indonesia’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade in late 2011.
Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.
Today, Indonesian president-elect Joko Widodo (commonly referred to as Jokowi) and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg met in Jakarta to discuss how Facebook can be utilized for the benefit of the people and how the social media network can support Indonesian micro businesses. With nearly 70 million, Indonesia contains the world’s fourth-largest Facebook community. With a total population that numbers about 250 million people, a burgeoning middle class and relatively low Internet penetration, there remains a large untapped potential.
Indonesian stocks tumbled at the first trading day of the week as investors are still concerned about the condition of the global economy. Declining stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week had a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG). The IHSG fell 1.01 percent to 4,913.05, its lowest level since 4 July 2014, on Monday (13/10). Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 595 billion (USD $49.6 million).
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.
Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.
Indonesian stocks plunged considerably on Thursday (02/10). The country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 2.73 percent to 5,000.81 points, the largest drop in almost six months. This poor performance was caused by both external and internal factors. Externally, various weak economic data from the USA and Europe as well as an appreciating yen impacted negatively on Asian stock indices. Internally, market participants responded negatively toward the inauguration of the new parliament.
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