Per May 2015 the government of Indonesia will offer tax breaks to companies that export a minimum of 30 percent of their production. Earlier this month, Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed a package that includes the tax break for exporters as well as a tax break for multinational companies that are willing to re-invest profits in Indonesia instead of sending profits and dividends to shareholders abroad. This package is designed to improve Indonesia’s trade balance (and the related current account balance).

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In line with other Asian emerging market currencies, the Indonesian rupiah is depreciating against the US dollar on Monday’s trading day (20/04). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 12,882 per US dollar at 13:00 pm local Jakarta time. However, Head of Research at NH Korindo Securities Reza Priyambada believes that the currency cannot depreciate much further as positive economic data provides enough support for the rupiah.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s current account deficit has eased to 1.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2015. This estimate is lower than the institution’s initial forecast of 2 percent of GDP. Main reason for this more optimistic view is that Indonesia experienced a USD $2.43 billion trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015. Particularly the unexpectedly-wide USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March will manage to ease pressures on the country’s current account.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/04) that Indonesia posted a USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March 2015, the country’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus, and almost twice the size that analysts had forecast earlier. Despite the monthly trade surplus being good news, data also showed that both Indonesian exports and imports contracted. Exports were down 9.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.71 billion in March, while imports fell 13.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.58 billion.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at Tuesday’s Board of Governors’ Meeting (14 April 2015). The institution also left its deposit facility and lending facility at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers this level to be effective in order to push the country’s inflation rate back into its target range of 3-5 percent (y/y) in both 2015 and 2016. It is also convinced that this interest rate environment will improve the current account balance.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate strengthened rapidly on Thursday (19/03) after the Federal Reserve refrained from raising its key interest rate at the two-day FOMC meeting that ended on Wednesday (18/03) as US inflation is still tame while US economic growth somewhat moderated. The US central bank signaled that it is not in a hurry to raise interest rates, but, on the other hand, it also dropped the word ‘patient’ from its guidance on interest rates (which have been at historic lows since late 2008).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 7.50 percent at today’s Board of Governors’ Meeting. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were maintained at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers that the current interest rate environment is in line with its target to push inflation within its target range of 3.0-5.0 percent (y/y) in 2015 and to curb the country’s current account deficit to a range of 2.5-3.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

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After a series of good economic data (particularly US employment) the market expects that the Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate in the second or third quarter of 2015 thus providing ammunition for bullish US dollar momentum (hovering at an 11-years high). Due to the expected higher yield in the USA, capital is flowing back to the world’s largest economy at the expense of emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate which has depreciated 6 percent against the US dollar this year so far.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s trade balance will show a USD $500 million surplus in February 2015 on the back of increased manufacturing exports, the higher price of crude palm oil, and lower oil imports. In January, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a USD $710 million surplus, divided into a USD $748 million surplus in the non-oil & gas trade balance and a USD $38.6 million deficit in the oil & gas trade balance.

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Regarding Indonesia, the spotlight remains sharply focused on the drastically depreciating rupiah exchange rate. As speculation is growing that the US Federal Reserve will soon raise its interest rate regime, emerging market assets (both currencies and stocks) tend to weaken. However, although most Asian emerging currencies are weakening against the US dollar, the rupiah is particularly vulnerable as Indonesia is plagued by a wide current account deficit, which informs investors that the country is relying on foreign capital inflows.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the April 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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While most emerging Asian currencies fell, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 11,523 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (12/05). The depreciating Chinese yuan, after its central bank set the midrate at its lowest level in eight months, put pressure on other Asian currencies. Today, Indonesia's Finance Ministry sold IDR 10 trillion rupiah (USD $867 million) of bonds, higher than the indicative target of IDR 8 trillion rupiah. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s two-year bonds gained.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's economic growth in 2015 is targeted in the range of 5.5 to 6.3 percent. Amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible interest rate hikes in the world's largest economy, chances of capital outflows from emerging markets (including Indonesia) are becoming larger. Basri said that these global conditions impact on GDP growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, 2015 is a transition year, reflected by tighter economic projections and state spending.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that the country's inflation outcome in April 2014 is further evidence of a continuing downward trend. In fact, Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) in April recorded deflation of -0.02 percent month-to-month (mtm) or 7.25 percent year-on-year (yoy), thus easing compared to 0.08 percent (mtm) of inflation or 7.32 percent (yoy) in March 2014. Since January 2014, Indonesia has now recorded moderating inflation, both on a monthly and annual basis.

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Indonesia’s HSBC Markit Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) showed a reading of 51.1 in April 2014, significantly up from 50.1 in the previous month, meaning that manufacturing activity in Indonesia has grown (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). In fact, amid improved economic conditions as well as strong demand, manufacturing activity in Southeast Asia’s largest economy expanded at the fastest pace in 11 months.

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On the first trading day of the week (Monday 28 April 2014), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 11,587 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Several factors - both internal and external - influenced the rupiah as well as Indonesian stocks in a negative way. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) declined a whopping 1.61 percent to 4,818.76 points, in line with the regional trend in Asia today.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate ended the week with a 0.32 percent gain to IDR 11,565 per US dollar on Friday (25/04) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Despite still high local demand for US dollars ahead of the month-end (for reasons of profit repatriation, imports and debt repayments), the rupiah managed to appreciate as (foreign and domestic) investments in Indonesia were reported to have reached a new record at IDR 106.6 trillion (USD $9.4 billion) in the first quarter of 2014.

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Mostly declining Asian stock indices, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite, had a negative influence on the performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Wednesday (23/04). Moreover, today's sharp rupiah depreciation contributed to the 0.10 percent decline to 4,893.15 points. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.94 percent to 11,630 per US dollar.

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