Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which was launched in July 2016 and will run until 31 March 2017, can be labeled a success. Up to 16 October 2016, a total of IDR 3,842.9 trillion (approx. USD $296 billion) worth of assets (either at home or abroad) have been declared to Indonesia's tax authorities nearly achieving the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion. However, asset repatriations (from the so-called tax havens) are not a success, being far from the government's initial projection and therefore Indonesian authorities are now easing regulations.

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The first phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on Friday (30/09). Contrary to earlier forecasts the first phase of the program can be labeled a success. The Indonesian government collected IDR 97.2 trillion (approx. USD $7.5 billion) in additional tax revenue, or 58.9 percent of the nine-month program's full target (IDR 165 trillion). Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which runs up to 31 March 2017, is divided in three phases. In the first phase the government offered the most attractive tax tariffs to taxpayers who declare and/or repatriate their previously unreported assets.

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Contrary to our earlier predictions, Indonesia's tax amnesty program has been on a roll in September 2016. The program is designed to boost the government's tax revenue by offering tax evaders attractive rates to come clean and declare their previously undeclared assets (whether stashed at home or abroad in the so-called tax havens). Those who join the program can also repatriate offshore assets into Indonesia, into specifically prepared investment instruments where the funds need to stay for at least three years.

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Realization of non-oil & gas tax revenue reached IDR 705 trillion (approx. USD $54 billion) up to 26 September 2016, or 53.5 percent of the full-year non-oil & gas revenue target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (IDR 1,318.9 trillion). Ken Dwijugiasteadi, the Finance Ministry’s Taxation Director General, said bleak non-oil & gas tax revenue realization is partly the result of lower income tax and value-added tax realization generated from imports. Both Indonesia's import and export performance have been declining for nearly two years.

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According to reports in Indonesian media, President Joko Widodo is willing to extend the deadline for the first phase of the government's tax amnesty program. Originally, this first phase, which sets the most attractive tax rates for those who decide to declare previously undeclared assets and - if desired - repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia, was designed to end on 30 September 2016. Rosan Roslani, Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia), said Widodo is willing to extend the deadline on request of Indonesia's business community.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was at a court hearing in Jakarta on Tuesday (20/09) to defend the legality of the nation's tax amnesty program. In July 2016 legal activists, gathered within the One Justice Foundation (Yayasan Satu Keadilan) and Indonesian People's Struggle Union (Serikat Perjuangan Rakyat Indonesia), filed for a judicial review at the Constitutional Court claiming that the program turns money laundering into a legal practice, protects criminals, teaches Indonesian citizens not to pay taxes, and constitutes an unfair program from a social point of view.

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The first period of Indonesia’s tax amnesty program is almost completed. This first period, which runs from July to 31 September 2016, offers the most attractive tax rates to those taxpayers who have not fulfilled their tax obligations in recent years. Through the government’s tax amnesty program they can declare previously undeclared assets and – if they have assets abroad (for example in the so-called tax havens) – they are encouraged to repatriate these funds into Indonesia through attractive tax incentives and immunity from prosecution, a move that met resistance in Singapore.

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The governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, stated that he has become highly skeptical about the government's tax amnesty program that was launched in July. At a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday (07/09), Martowardojo said the central bank only expects to see IDR 21 billion (approx. USD $1.6 billion) in additional tax revenue through the amnesty program for the state and only USD $13.8 billion in repatriated funds. These new projections are significantly below the central bank's earlier projections.

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A total of 62 "big taxpayers" have joined Indonesia's tax amnesty program. According to local media their participation has resulted in a total of IDR 41.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.1 billion) worth of fund declarations and IDR 902 billion (approx. USD $68 million) in additional state revenue (tax). Meanwhile, the Tax Directorate General said there are more big Indonesian taxpayers ready to join the program. The tax office has formed a special team that calls the country's large businessmen on a daily basis to remind them about the tax amnesty program and their tax obligations.

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The ambitious tax amnesty program of the Indonesian government received support from three influential Indonesian businessmen. The first, James Riady, Chief Executive of the Lippo Group (and son of Mochtar Riady, the founding father of this huge conglomerate), joined the program by handing over his tax declaration documents to Indonesia's Tax Office on Friday (02/09). This declaration took place in front of an audience consisting of Indonesian press and therefore may cause some momentum for the controversial program that experienced a sloppy start.

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After the Constitutional Court had already confirmed earlier this week that Indonesia's tax amnesty program is not in violation of the nation's constitution, there occurred a second reason for celebration related to the tax amnesty program: the total of declared assets up to Wednesday (14/12) had surpassed the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion (approx. USD $301 billion), about 3.5 months before the end of the program. Despite this success there remains reason for pessimism.

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Indonesia's Communication and Information Ministry urges American multinational technology company Google to set up a permanent establishment in Indonesia. This way Google, which is owned by US multinational conglomerate Alphabet Inc, would need to start paying taxes to Indonesian authorities. Currently, Google only has a representative office in Indonesia, while transactions and revenue generated in Indonesia are booked at Google Inc's Asia Pacific headquarters located in Singapore.

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Indonesia's tax revenue realization in the first half of 2016 was disappointing. According to the latest data, Southeast Asia's largest economy collected a total of IDR 518.4 trillion (approx. USD $39.6 billion) worth of tax revenue (including customs and excise) in the first six months of 2016, down 3.3 percent (y/y) from tax revenue realization in the same period one year earlier, and only 33.7 percent of total targeted tax revenue (IDR 1,539.2 trillion) set in the revised 2016 State Budget. The disappointing performance is mainly due to weak tax income from the oil and gas sector.

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The government of Indonesia is preparing various investment instruments in order to absorb the (potentially large) inflow of capital following the launch of the tax amnesty program earlier this month. Besides government bonds, state-owned enterprises' bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and property investment through private equity schemes (RDPTs), the government is also preparing trustees and zero coupon bonds. Without such investment instruments, bubbles are expected to appear due to the large inflow of funds into Indonesia's financial markets.

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Without giving too much insight into the details and regulations, Indonesian President Joko Widodo launched the tax amnesty program on Friday (01/07) during a speech in front of hundreds of businessmen and officials at Indonesia's tax office headquarters in Jakarta. The tax amnesty program - approved by the House of Representatives in late June - is a strategy to boost state tax income by (temporarily) granting amnesty as well as offering attractive incentives to (former) tax evaders. In return, the tax dodgers have to declare and (if wanted) repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia.

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In a plenary session on Tuesday (28/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) passed the controversial Tax Amnesty Bill into law as well as the revised 2016 state budget. The Indonesian government will be relieved to see the Tax Amnesty Bill come into effect on 1 July 2016 (ending in May 2017) as it expects the bill to boost tax revenue this year by IDR 165 trillion (approx. USD $12.4 billion). Through tax incentives and the pardoning of tax crimes, the tax amnesty program makes it attractive for tax evaders to declare their offshore assets and repatriate these into Indonesia.

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In the past two weeks, two of the big international credit rating agencies released new reports about Indonesia's fiscal situation. Both agencies affirmed Indonesia's sovereign debt rating: Fitch Ratings kept Indonesia at BBB-/stable (investment grade class) and Standard & Poor's (S&P) maintained Indonesia at BB+/positive (highest junk level, one notch below investment grade). S&P's decision to keep Indonesia within the junk level category was met with disappointment among investors and Indonesian government officials but perhaps not that surprisingly.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.

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So far this year, realization of government revenue in Indonesia (up to 8 May 2016) has reached IDR 419.2 trillion (approx. USD $32 billion), roughly 23 percent of the full-year revenue target in 2016 (IDR 1,822.5 trillion). This result is weaker compared to last year when the government collected IDR 476.3 trillion in the period 1 January - 15 May 2015, or 27 percent of the full-year target. Meanwhile, government spending reached IDR 586.8 trillion between 1 January and 8 May 2016, or 28 percent of the full-year target (IDR 2,095.7 trillion), roughly the same as government spending during the same period last year.

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More changes to Indonesia's tax system are in the pipeline. Today (11/04), Indonesia's Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said Southeast Asia's largest economy plans to cut the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent this year (from 25 percent currently). According to Brodjonegoro a 20 percent corporate tax rate is more competitive and will attract investment. Indonesia's finance minister expressed this plan in a meeting with the nation's parliamentary commission overseeing taxes (an income tax rate cut requires parliamentary approval).

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