The government of Indonesia selected two islands - Resort islands Bintan and Rempang, situated near Singapore - as the possible location for its tax haven (a low-tax jurisdiction that should prevent Indonesian taxpayers from moving their assets to other countries in search of more attractive tax rates, while non-residents will also be able to establish so-called shell companies). Currently, a significant portion of Indonesian funds flow to offshore financial centers in Singapore, Mauritius, British Virgin Islands and Panama.

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Although the peak of repatriated fund flows and tax declarations - in the context of Indonesia's tax amnesty program - are expected to occur in the months September and October 2016, there is room for concern whether the ambitious targets of the government can be achieved. Between the launch of the program on 18 July and 1 August 2016 the government only saw IDR 98.43 billion (approx. USD $7.6 million) of additional income from 464 tax payers, while it targets to collect a total of IDR 165 trillion (approx. USD $12.7 billion) within a nine-month period.

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Singaporean authorities deny that the nation's banks offer incentives to Indonesian clients to keep their assets stashed in Singapore. Last week, reports started to circulate in local Indonesian media claiming that Singaporean banks offer to finance the difference between interest paid on the declaration of assets kept in Singapore and the interest paid on the assets repatriated to Indonesia. Indonesia is eager to see the repatriation of offshore funds (stashed in so-called tax havens) through the tax amnesty program. It is estimated that some USD $200 billion worth of Indonesian funds are kept in Singapore.

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On 24 July 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's tax amnesty program, fiscal stability, Bank Indonesia's monetary policy, the pharmaceutical industry, global economic growth forecasts of the IMF and ADB, company profiles, and more.

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Allegedly, several Singaporean banks try to keep Indonesian funds within the country by offering tax incentives to their Indonesian clients. These banks are concerned that Indonesia's tax amnesty program will lure taxpayers to repatriate their funds into Indonesia. Under Indonesia's amnesty program tax evaders obtain tax incentives (and impunity from prosecution) to declare and - if desired - repatriate their offshore funds into Indonesia. Although it is illegal to request Indonesian clients not to declare these assets to Indonesian tax authorities, it is legal to offer an incentive to keep the assets in Singapore.

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Foreign investors have increased holdings of government bonds by IDR 96.45 trillion (approx. USD $7.4 billion) between the start of 2016 and Wednesday 20 July 2016. In total, foreigners now hold IDR 654.97 trillion (approx. USD $50 billion) worth of Indonesia's government bonds. This reflects strong investor appetite for (relatively) safer state assets amid economic uncertainties related to looming monetary tightening in the USA, the Brexit issue and sluggish global economic growth, but it also shows that foreign investors have confidence in Indonesia's fiscal fundamentals.

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Not only the Indonesian government - through its tax amnesty program - but also the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) offers incentives. Tito Sulistio, General Chairman of the IDX, said initial listing fees are scrapped for those companies that conduct an initial public offering (IPO) before 31 March 2017. It is no coincidence that this incentive is valid until 31 March 2017 (the same day Indonesia's tax amnesty program expires). The Indonesian government and market regulators all seem on the same page: attract capital inflows, deepen capital and financial markets, and - more generally - boost Indonesia's economic growth.

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It was another impressive day at the office for the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged 1.35 percent to 5,242.82 points on Wednesday (21/07). After Thailand's benchmark index, the Jakarta Composite Index was the best performing index in Asia today. Overall, Asian markets were mixed as most investors seem to reassess the global economy after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to cut its global growth outlook (modestly) on Tuesday (19/07).

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According to an Indonesian tax official, 149 taxpayers have already filed for Indonesia's tax amnesty program (which was launched on Monday 18 July 2016) at North Jakarta's Tax Office. Eleven have already settled their tax debt. However, spokesperson for the Directorate General of Taxation, Hestu Yoga Saksama, provided no information about the amount of tax revenue or repatriated funds that are involved. Saksama is optimistic that the government's target of seeing the repatriation of IDR 1,000 trillion (approx. USD $76 billion) worth of previously undeclared offshore assets into Indonesia will be achieved.

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On 3 July 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah in the post-Brexit era, the impact of Idul Fitri on the economy, the tax amnesty program, revised state budget, inflation, manufacturing, and much more.

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Indonesia's Tax Office now has more power to check whether people and companies indeed pay taxes. Last week the Indonesian government basically scrapped the existence of banking data secrecy by introducing a new regulation that gives the nation's tax authorities access to information on accounts held at financial institutions, including bank accounts. The new regulation should contribute to a more transparent financial system and boost the government's (much-need) tax revenue realization. However, Indonesian parliament still needs to approve the new regulation.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 March 2017, so now it is time to take a look at the results. Although Indonesia's amnesty program has been labelled as one of the most - if not the most - successful amnesty programs ever around the globe (in terms of asset declarations), there is plenty of room for disappointment. Based on data from Indonesia's Tax Office, less than one million Indonesians joined the program. For many nations this would be a great number. For Indonesia this number means tax evasion remains rampant, implying the government misses out on much-needed tax revenue.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program will end soon. The nine-month program was designed to finish on 31 March 2017. Although the program has become the world's most successful tax amnesty program, it will fail to solve Indonesia's tax revenue collection problems. And with tax revenue being the largest source for public spending capacity, low tax compliance in Southeast Asia's largest economy obstructs more rapid development of the Indonesian economy.

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The tax amnesty program of Indonesia is yet to have an impact on Indonesia's property sector. Earlier, analysts and stakeholders expected part of the asset repatriations into Indonesia (under the government's tax amnesty program) to flow to property, either property ownership or property development projects. Although tax declarations and additional government revenue under the amnesty program were a success, the repatriation of assets that were stashed overseas has been weak. However, some stakeholders are optimistic that repatriated funds will flow to Indonesia's residential property in Q2-2017.

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Indonesia's budget deficit in 2016 is estimated to have reached 2.46 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), below the government's forecast of 2.7 percent of GDP and at a safe distance from the legal cap of 3.0 percent of GDP that is stipulated by Indonesian law. This is a positive matter that is supported by modestly growing tax revenue. In full-year 2016 tax revenue realization reached IDR 1,105.2 trillion (approx. USD $83 billion), only 81.6 percent of the target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (APBN-P 2016) but slightly higher than tax revenue realization in the preceding year.

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After the Constitutional Court had already confirmed earlier this week that Indonesia's tax amnesty program is not in violation of the nation's constitution, there occurred a second reason for celebration related to the tax amnesty program: the total of declared assets up to Wednesday (14/12) had surpassed the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion (approx. USD $301 billion), about 3.5 months before the end of the program. Despite this success there remains reason for pessimism.

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Throughout the year 2016 the economy of Indonesia was plagued by major challenges stemming from abroad. In fact, most countries around the globe have been busy to soften the impact of low global economic growth on the local economy. In the case of Indonesia, authorities have unveiled a series of 14 economic policy packages aimed at improving investment, trade and purchasing power. Although it remains difficult to implement these packages in full force (due to the low quality of human resources at the local government level or conflicts of interests), they have helped to push Indonesia's economic growth into higher gear.

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In the October 2016 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report, titled "Easing Pressures", the World Bank is positive about Indonesia's improved fiscal management and its impact on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The Washington-based institution projects Indonesia's economic expansion at 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016. However, it emphasizes that external risks (sluggish global economic growth and global market volatility) continue to pose a threat.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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At its latest monthly policy meeting the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged with the benchmark BI rate at 6.50 percent (this month the bank is set to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate - reverse repo - as the new benchmark rate). Bank Indonesia's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was a surprise move given that the nation's inflation is low, the rupiah is strengthening, but overall economic growth has remained sluggish. This context would actually justify a moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

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