According to the latest data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, the nation's coal production reached 163.4 million tons in the first half of 2018. This may seem a very low figure considering the Indonesian government targets national coal production at (a maximum of) 485 million in full-year 2018 (and not unoften this target is exceeded as local coal companies are eager to boost sales, particularly in times of high coal prices).

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Domestic coal demand in Indonesia is estimated - by the Indonesian government - to reach 114.51 million tons in 2018, up around 6 percent from estimated demand in 2017. Bambang Gatot, Director General for Coal and Minerals at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said coal-fired power plants remain the biggest domestic consumers of coal.

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Coal imports into China are expected to recover in the last two months of the year and therefore various analysts say the coal price is able to touch beyond USD $97 per ton before the year-end. In October coal imports into China - the world's largest coal importer - had fallen by a whopping 24 percent (m/m) to 21.3 million tons due to the availability of plenty domestic coal supplies.

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The value of Indonesia's coal exports to China during January-August 2017 reached USD $1.68 billion, up 63 percent compared to the export value of the commodity in the same period (to China) one year earlier (USD $1.03 billion) according to the Trade Attaché of the Indonesian Embassy in Beijing.

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The Indonesian government is having problems curbing the nation's coal output, especially now coal prices are at a much more attractive level compared to one year ago. Therefore, the government may consider implementing disincentives or even sanctions in order to keep coal production under control and push it down to (an annual) 400 million metric tons by 2019.

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While Indonesian authorities try to curtail the nation's coal production in order to safeguard plenty of supplies for future use (particularly to fuel Indonesia's coal-fired power plants), it is difficult for local coal miners to resist producing and exporting more coal now coal prices are still about 50 percent higher compared to the situation one year ago.

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Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, surged further in October 2016. The HBA soared 8.04 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $69.07 per metric ton from USD $63.93 per ton in the preceding month. Indonesia's HBA price is now at its highest level since August 2014. This rally is mainly supported by rising coal demand in China.

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Coal prices are experiencing a remarkable rebound so far this year. On Thursday (15/09) the coal price touched USD $70.95 per metric ton (September delivery, ICE Futures Exchange), up about 53 percent from its position at the year-start. For Indonesia, a country that ranks among the world’s biggest coal producers and exporters, this is good news. There are plenty of coal companies active in Indonesia that will see improving corporate earnings due to the bullish price. Moreover, several coal mining companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have also seen their shares surge significantly.

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The DBS Group Research expects that the coal price will remain in the range of USD $60 - $65 per metric ton in the second half of 2016. Given that coal demand from China remains bleak (as authorities are eager to meet environmental accords) chances are slim that the coal price can manage to go higher. For Indonesia, a country that - in terms of commodity exports - is highly dependent on coal and crude palm oil, it means challenges remain despite the recently sharply rebounding coal prices.

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Over the past two months global coal prices have surged, primarily on the back of rising coal demand in China where local coal production capacity was curtailed as authorities seek to curb industrial overcapacity. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly rate set by the nation's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, rose 10.1 percent (m/m) to USD $58.37 per ton in August from USD $53.00 per ton in the preceding month, a remarkable rebound that pushed the HBA to a one-year high.

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The chairman of the Indonesia Coal Mining Association said that Indonesia's coal exports are expected to increase from 310 million tons in 2012 to 330 million tons in 2013, a 6.5 percent increase. Coal producers have been facing a tough period since July 2008 when global coal demand weakened and triggered volatile - but mostly declining - coal prices ever since. Coal demand from China and India, however, is expected to increase this year.

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