As agreed last month, this November Indonesia will start importing about 1.5 million tons of rice from Vietnam. Earlier this year, Indonesia had already imported 60,000 tons of rice to stabilize rice prices as a spike in rice prices, which the government blamed on mark-ups by market traders, caused concern. Rice is the main staple food for the Indonesian population, implying that the poorer segments of society spend a relatively large portion of their disposable incomes on rice. This means that rice inflation can cause a surge in poverty.

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Indonesian inflation is expected to have eased further in February 2015 on lower food prices. One notable exception, however, is rice. Rice prices have soared approximately 30 percent year-on-year (y/y) up to IDR 12,000 per kilogram in February. Higher rice prices have been caused by distribution obstacles for Raskin (‘rice for the poor’) operations in combination with this year’s late harvest season (between March and June). Fluctuation in prices of rice, the staple food of 250 million Indonesians, has a significant impact on inflation in Indonesia.

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The price of rice in several Indonesian regions has risen by between 17 to 23 percent to IDR 8,500-9,000 per kilogram as rice production at the start of the year has not been able to meet rice demand. In January 2015, Indonesian rice production stood at 2 million tons, whereas demand reached 2.5 million tons. Inflation of rice is a sensitive issue in Indonesia because it jeopardizes declining poverty rates as poorer segments of Indonesian society spend over half of their total disposable income on food items, primarily rice.

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Prices of certain food products in Indonesia have risen steeply during the first week of Ramadan, the Islamic fasting month. Higher prices are a sensitive issue at the moment as the country is fighting higher inflation after subsidized fuel prices were increased in June. Therefore, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent last week. If inflation exceeds 2.3 percent in July (month to month) then it might result in another upward revision of the interest rate, thus slowing down Indonesia's economic growth.

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Corn is among the four strategic commodities that receive special attention in the blueprint of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The AEC’s food blueprint aims to enhance food security & sovereignty of corn, rice, soybeans and cassava in the ASEAN region. Indonesia is currently the region’s largest corn producer. However, Indonesian corn consumption continues to outpace domestic corn production, resulting in a deficit. This column provides an overview of Indonesia’s corn sector in the context of the AEC.

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Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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