Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.
Greece needs to present reforms to its creditors in order to receive more bailout funds for a 1.5 billion euro debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that is due at the end of this month. Although it remains unknown what the concessions are that Greece offers, markets have reacted positively to the news and seem to be confident that Greece will not default on its debt and remains a member of the Eurozone. The summit later today in Brussels is considered a decisive moment regarding the economic turmoil in Europe. As such, in case no deal or agreement can be made between Greece and its creditors, we expect to see sharply declining stocks and a heavily depreciating euro. But for the moment we remain optimistic that an agreement can be made between both sides.
Meanwhile, it was announced that the European Central Bank raised the level of emergency funding to Greek lenders again as the country's banking system faces a run by Greek customers withdrawing their money.
Stock indices rallied across Asia today: Tokyo (+1.26 percent), Seoul (+0.40 percent), Hong Kong (+1.20 percent), and Sydney (+0.24 percent). Indonesian stocks, however, were down with foreign net selling at IDR 63.3 billion (USD $4.8 million). Amid great global uncertainty, Indonesian stocks are regarded too risky. Trading is expected to remain erratic until the Greek issue has been solved.
Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG):
The Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 13,306 per US dollar on Monday (22/06) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The rupiah strengthened as the US Federal Reserve refrained from confirming that US interest rates are to be raised in September 2015.
However, concern about Indonesia’s economic growth remains an obstacle. Today, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said that the government is to lower its economic growth assumption for 2016 to the range of 5.5 - 6.0 percent (y/y), down from its previous assumption of 5.8 - 6.2 percent (y/y). In front of parliament Brodjonegoro said that “next year is a year of uncertainty”. Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) maintains its growth assumption of 5.4 - 5.8 percent (y/y) for 2016.
Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated 0.05 percent to IDR 13,318 per US dollar on Monday (22/06).
Indonesian Rupiah versus US Dollar (JISDOR):| Source: Bank Indonesia