9 December 2019 (closed)
USD/IDR (14,004) -17.01 -0.12%
EUR/IDR (15,504) +2.91 +0.02%
Jakarta Composite Index (6,193.79) +6.92 +0.11%
Not only were we surprised by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, but also by markets' positive reaction to Trump's win on Tuesday. It shows that most analysts' opinions and opinion polls fail to reflect reality accurately (similar to the Brexit case earlier this year). Today (10/11) the turnaround continued in Asia, extending the performance of European and US stocks overnight. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index opened 0.79 percent higher on Thursday morning (10/11), while the rupiah has not really moved yet.
Although markets initial reaction to a Trump victory was indeed negative (giving rise to a massive selloff on Wednesday, particularly in Asia), markets somewhat recovered after Trump gave a rather soft victory speech (in which he called for unity among Americans, praised Clinton's fighting spirit, emphasized the need for massive investment in infrastructure, and seeks conducive international relations provided other nations want to be on good terms with the USA).
On Wednesday (09/11) the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 1.4 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 1.1 percent, while the Nasdaq composite added 1.1 percent on expectation that Trump's plans for infrastructure spending, tax cuts and lighter regulation will benefit the economy.
On Thursday (10/11) this rebound was extended into Asia. Japan basically erased its huge losses on Wednesday (Japan's yen, which gained significantly during yesterday’s turmoil, fell sharply overnight as the US dollar recovered), while Australian stocks posted their biggest gain in five years in early trade.
However, there are concerns about the emergence of a trade war with Trump in the White House. This may impact particularly negative on emerging markets in Asia. Trump has repeatedly spoken out against the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal, while he has also called for punitive tariffs on Chinese and Mexican exports.
It is interesting to mention that shares of MNC Investama, an Indonesian investment company with a scope of businesses spanning media, financial services, energy, natural resources as well as portfolio investments, jumped about 15 percent on Wednesday after Trump won the US election. MNC Investama, founded by media mogul Hary Tanoesoedibjo, is possibly best known for being the holding company for Indonesia's free-to-air Media Nusantara Citra, cable television operator Indovision, and real estate businesses that include Lido Lakes and Resort and Westin Resort Bali.
In August 2016 it was announced that the MNC Group will cooperate with Trump Hotel Collection, a luxury hotel chain owned by next US president Donald Trump, to develop Lido Lakes and Resort, a six-star hotel in Sukabumi (West Java). On Thursday, however, shares of MNC Investama are plagued by profit taking.