Waspadalah terhadap penipu yang aktif di WA mengatasnamakan Indonesia Investments
19 June 2025 (closed)
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In the present, it has become particularly interesting to take a look at trade flows as the US import tariffs (announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April 2025) could cause the restructuring, or reshaping, of international trade.
On Sunday (04 May 2025) Indonesia Investments released the April 2025 edition of its monthly report. The report zooms in on a selection of developments that were relevant in the month of April 2025.
In July 2024, Indonesia saw its narrowest trade surplus since May 2023 as imports rebounded quite impressively. Fortunately, Indonesian exports also performed well in July 2024. If not, it would have meant an end to Indonesia’s trade surplus streak that has been ongoing for 51 successive months.
Although the trade performance of Indonesia was not as good as one month earlier, it is positive that its exports and imports experienced an increase (in value) in June 2024 compared to the same month one year ago.
Before we discuss Indonesia’s May 2024 trade data, we first need to go back to the previous month as Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) made a significant revision to the country’s April 2024 import data.
Indonesia enjoyed another great USD $3.56 billion trade surplus in April 2024. But unfortunately the nation’s exports and imports both dropped on a month-on-month (m/m) basis. However, that was in line with our expectations as trade was disrupted by the end of the Ramadan month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations (which meant a week-long holiday for Indonesia).
On Sunday 5 May 2024 Indonesia Investments released the April 2024 edition of its monthly report. As usual, the report zooms in on topics - relevant in the month of April 2024 - that affect the investment environment of Indonesia.
Indonesia collected a USD $2.01 billion trade surplus in January 2024, which is the smallest surplus in six months (July 2023) for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Key reason is that Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports showed a relatively steep decline compared to non-oil and gas exports in the preceding month and in the same month one year earlier. So, Indonesia’s export performance remains under some pressure.
On Friday 5 January 2024 Indonesia Investments released the December 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report informs readers on the latest -and in our opinion most relevant- economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.
Although Indonesia enjoyed another comfortable trade surplus in November 2023, the surplus ranks among its weakest in 2023 as exports dipped, while imports were rather stable. The latest trade surplus, which is the country’s 43rd consecutive trade surplus, reached a value of USD $2.41 billion.
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The central bank of Indonesia expects that Indonesia’s current account deficit will decline to below the three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) mark by the end of this year supported by sharply falling global oil prices and Indonesia’s recent subsidized fuel price hike. Hendar, Deputy Governor of the central bank, said that for every USD $1 decline in global oil prices, the country’s current account deficit narrows by about USD $170 million. Indonesia’s current account deficit fell to 3.1 percent of GDP in Q3-2014 (from 4.06 percent of GDP in Q2-2014).
After having recorded a trade deficit for several months, Indonesia finally posted a USD $20 million trade surplus in October 2014, according to data from the country’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday (01/12). Exports in October amounted to USD $15.35 billion, while imports were recorded at USD $15.33 billion. The improvement in Indonesia’s trade balance was mainly on the back of growth in the country’s non-oil & gas sector exports. This sector saw a surplus of USD $1.13 billion (up from USD $760 million in September).
Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).
On Thursday 12 June 2014 it was decided at the central bank’s Board of Governors’ Meeting to maintain the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This decision is consistent with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce Indonesia’s current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
Today (02/06), Statistics Indonesia released various important economic data that provide more insight into the state of the Indonesian economy. Two of these indicators - inflation and trade - are discussed in this column. Head of Statistics Indonesia Suryamin announced that inflation in May 2014 rose by 0.16 percent (slightly higher than previously expected), while the April 2014 trade balance of Indonesia recorded a USD $1.96 billion deficit. These data were not well received by the market, evidenced by sharp rupiah depreciation.
The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).
Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 11,581 per US dollar on Wednesday based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency is now at its strongest level since 25 November 2013 as it regained trust of international investors. In 2013, the rupiah weakened sharply after speculation emerged that the Federal Reserve would scale back its quantitative easing program. In combination with the country's record high current account deficit and high inflation it led to large capital outflows from Southeast Asia's largest economy.
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