As Indonesia's oil production is expected to rise while a new oil refinery in Tuban (East Java) has started to come online, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources targets to stop imports of diesel fuel altogether and cut imports of gasoline fuel by 30 percent in 2016. The refinery in Tuban is owned by Trans Pacific Petrochemical Indotama, which was recently acquired by Indonesia's state-owned energy company Pertamina.

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The government of Indonesia decided to offer more attractive profit sharing schemes in order to lure investors to invest the nation’s oil & gas blocks. In September, the government plans to auction a total of eight oil & gas blocks with a profit sharing of 30 percent to 35 percent for oil, and 35 percent to 40 percent for gas. The majority of profit will still go to the government. Usually, the government offers a 15 percent profit share for oil and a 30 percent profit share for gas to investors.

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After a seven-year hiatus Indonesia will rejoin the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a full member in December 2015. A statement on the website of the OPEC states that all members approved reactivating Indonesia’s full membership in the organization. At the next OPEC meeting, scheduled for 4 December 2015 in Vienna (Austria), Indonesia will be formally admitted back into the OPEC.

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Pihak berwenang Indonesia, yaitu Pemerintah dan bank sentral (Bank Indonesia), mengumumkan sejumlah asumsi makroekonomi yang direvisi untuk 2015 dan 2016. Mungkin yang paling penting adalah bahwa asumsi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2016 telah diturun pada cakupan 5,5-6,0% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), turun dari asumsi sebelumnya yaitu 5,8-6,2% (y/y). Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro juga menyatakan bahwa Pemerintah akan mengasumsikan rupiah pada Rp 13.000-13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk tahun 2016.

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Indonesia diprediksi akan memproduksi antara 800.000 sampai 830,000 barel minyak per hari (barrels of oil per day/bpd) di 2016. Cakupan target ini disetujui dalam sebuah rapat kerja antara Komisi VII (yang mengawasi sektor energi negara) dari Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) dan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM). Rapat ini diadakan dalam konteks pertimbangan mengenai Anggaran Perencanaan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016. Sejauh ini di tahun ini, hasil produksi minyak mentah Indonesia berjumlah rata-rata 802.046 bpd (dalam basis bulanan). Meskipun begitu, permintaan domestik berjumlah 1,43 juta bpd.

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Indonesia’s Commission VII of the House of Representatives (DPR) - the commission that oversees the country’s energy affairs - and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources agreed on Wednesday (28/01) to set a 825,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil production target for 2015 in the Revised 2015 State Budget (APBN-P 2015), up from an estimated 794,000 bpd of realized production in 2014. Since its peak production of 1.6 million bpd in 1995, oil output of Indonesia (a former OPEC member) has declined drastically.

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The government of Indonesia will soon decide on the future of the Mahakam oil and gas block in East Kalimantan. The existing contracts to operate the block will expire in 2017 and therefore the government needs to make a decision about the future operator(s). The current operators of the Mahakam block are Total E&P Indonesia (subsidiary of France-based oil and gas giant Total S.A.) and Japanese oil company Inpex Corporation. Both companies have a 50 percent stake in the Mahakam block.

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Indonesia’s seventh president Joko Widodo, who will take office on 20 October 2014, wants to conduct several reforms in Indonesia’s energy sector in an attempt to combat illegal practices and optimize state income. Firstly, Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, plans to audit operations of state-owned Pertamina’s energy trading unit Petral to halt alleged fuel smuggling and corruption. Secondly, Jokowi wants to impose major changes at Pertamina. Lastly, the president-elect wants to curb coal exports to ensure domestic supplies for power plants.

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Indonesia may achieve its oil target of 900,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2015 as the Banyu Urip field in Cepu (East Java) is expected to start production in February next year. Indonesian upstream oil and gas regulator SKKMigas stated that the oil field has now been completed for 92.5 percent. The oilfield’s early production facility is already producing 30,000 bpd. This is expected to increase to 165,000 bpd once production has reached its peak in mid-2015. This peak level is estimated to last for three years.

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The government of Indonesia will tender a crude oil refinery construction project in mid April 2014. The oil refinery will be located in Bontang (East Kalimantan) and the project is based on the public-private partnership (PPP) scheme. Susilo Siswoutomo, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the government is currently engaged in formulating procedures for submission of the tender bid. The Finance Ministry and Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) are also involved in formulating the terms of reference.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.

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Produksi minyak mentah Indonesia diharapkan untuk berningkat mulai pertengahan Maret 2015 karena sumur-sumur minyak baru mulai berproduksi tahun ini, termasuk ladang minyak Bukit Tua (bagian dari blok Ketapang di Jawa Timur yang dioperasikan Petronas Carigali). Selama dua dekade terakhir produksi minyak Indonesia telah menurun drastis karena ladang-ladang minyak tua mulai jenuh dan kurangnya eksplorasi dan investasi lain di sektor minyak dan gas Indonesia. Pada 2014, Indonesia memproduksi kira-kira 794.000 barrel minyak per hari (bmph).

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The government of Indonesia plans to add new fuel refineries soon after such development has been postponed for many years. Today, Indonesia's total of oil refineries have roughly the same combined production capacity as a decade ago, indicating that limited progress has been made. In fact, domestic oil output has experienced a steady downward trend for almost two decades due to a lack of exploration and investments amid weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty.

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It remains difficult for Indonesia to achieve oil production targets that are set by the Indonesian government. In fact, it is unlikely that Indonesia will meet this year’s revised oil lifting target of 818,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) as set in the Revised 2014 State Budget. In the first half of 2014, Indonesia recorded an oil production rate of 797,000 bpd only. For almost two decades, Indonesia’s oil sector has been in a state of decline, evidenced by falling production rates, due to a lack of investments and aging oil fields.

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In the past week, the global crude oil price has increased considerably due to geopolitical tensions in Iraq which can disturb oil supplies from the Middle East. Up to the end of 2014, provided that no exceptional developments occur, the oil price is expected to range between USD $105-110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced that, despite the higher oil price putting pressure on the government’s budget balance, it will not increase prices of subsidized fuels this year.

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General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.

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