Although influence of the devaluation of China’s yuan has eased, the Indonesian rupiah remains under pressure as investors are waiting for results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governor’s meeting (to be held later today), low oil (and other commodity) prices, while the US dollar appreciates against most other currencies amid mixed US macroeconomic data. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.12 percent to IDR 13,838 per US dollar by 10:30 am local Jakarta time on Tuesday (18/08).

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (05/08) that the Indonesian economy grew 4.67 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. However, the result was in line with expectation. Most analysts assumed that economic growth would continue to slow as there has been no rebound in global commodity prices, interest rates remained high, people’s purchasing power weakened, government spending remained problematic, companies Q2-2015 earnings reports were not too good, and manufacturing contracted.

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Pada 19 Juli 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletternya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami selama tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik membahas tentang isu ekonomi seperti update proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dari Bank Pembangunan Asia untuk wilayah Asia, tingkat suku bunga Indonesia, neraca perdagangan Juni, kebijakan Open Sky ASEAN, update industri minyak sawit, dan banyak lagi.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Kebanyakan analis setuju bahwa Bank Indonesia akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga yang sama dalam pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang dijadwalkan untuk dilaksanakan pada hari Selasa 14 Juli 2015. Bank sentral Indonesia dipediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00% karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah meningkat cepat baru-baru ini sementara rupiah mengalami tekanan karena faktor-faktor eksternal.

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Sejalan dengan perkiraan dan tren sejarah, penjualan mobil di Indonesia naik - dalam basis bulanan - di Juni 2015 menjelang perayaan Idul Fitri (yang menandai akhir bulan puasa umat Muslim). Penjualan mobil di Indonesia biasanya naik menjelang Idul Fitri, sebuah tradisi yang melibatkan perpindahan sementara jutaan orang Indonesia dari kota-kota ke daerah asal mereka. Sebelum perjalanan ke tempat asal, sebagian dari para pemudik ini membeli mobil baru, keputusan yang sering dipengaruhi oleh kampanye promosi dan program diskon.

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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On 21 June 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such Bank Indonesia’s interest rate policy, the May trade balance, Pertamina’s stake in the Mahakam block, the IPO of Merdeka Copper Gold, Islamic banking, education in Indonesia, and more.

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Sejalan dengan prediksi pasar, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tidak mengubah suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) yang tetap pada 7,50% di hari Kamis (18/06). Bank Indonesia tetap berkomitmen pada posisi moneternya yang relatif ketat dalam usaha melawa percepatan inflasi, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia yang lebar, dan mendukung rupiah yang sedang melemah. Bank sentral juga menetapkan tingkat fasilitas simpanan bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%.

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Saham Indonesia naik kembali pada hari Selasa (16/06). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,72% menjadi 4.872,60 poin dikarenakan oleh pembelian bersih netto oleh pihak asing. IHSG naik kembali dari posisi kemarin yang merupakan level terendah selama 13 bulan terakhir. Para investor jangka menengah dan panjang kini memiliki kesempatakan besar untuk menemukan saham pada harga murah (terutama saham yang tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh melemahnya rupiah).

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According to Fauzi Ichsan, Managing Director at Bank Standard Chartered Indonesia, there is a possibility that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 7.50 percent to 8 percent at the next Board of Governor's Meeting as the country's current account deficit has not improved markedly yet. The deficit stood at about 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2013. Bank Indonesia intends to lower the deficit to a sustainable level of below 3 percent in 2014.

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In 2014, Indonesia is expected to see capital inflow of between USD $1 billion and USD $1.5 billion of funds for investments in the country's car components industry. About 20 to 30 companies are eager to expand or start business in this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy (each investing about USD $50 million). Indonesia's car industry is attractive due to record high car sales in recent years (triggered by strong domestic GDP per capita growth) as well as double-digit export growth (although coming from a low base).

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the December 2013 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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Today, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the Board of Governors’ meeting. The lending facility rate and deposit facility rate were maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. An assessment of the economy in 2013 and outlook for 2014-2015 indicated that such policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to help reduce the current account deficit to a sustainable level.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) ended the first trading session down, it recovered in the second half of Wednesday's trading day (08/01). Investors were eager to buy stocks that have experienced a significant correction since May 2013. Moreover, as the Indonesia Stock Exchange reduced trading sizes to 100 shares per lot from 500 shares (to increase market liquidity and attract more retail investors), investors were able to benefit from these premium prices.

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Domestic sales of motorcycles in Indonesia are expected to have fallen by 20 percent to 550,000 in December 2013 compared to the previous month (688,527). According to the Chairman of the commercial department of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), Sigit Kumala, this decline is not the result of slowing demand for motorcycles but due to the limited amount of working days amid the Christmas and New Year holidays. This then led to less production and distribution of motorcycles to Indonesian dealers.

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From the start of today's trading day (06/01), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's currency fell 0.48 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar at 13:00 local Jakarta time. This declining trend is in line with the majority of other Asian Pacific currencies. With the exception of the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen, the US dollar appreciated against all Asia Pacific currencies in the morning of Monday (06/01).

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Again positive news for Indonesia's trade balance. Last week, Statistics Indonesia announced that the largest economy of Southeast Asia posted a USD $776.8 million trade surplus in November 2013 (the largest monthly trade surplus since March 2012). After the (revised) USD $24 million trade surplus in October 2013, November was the second straight month in which the country posted a surplus. This development is important to gain investors' confidence as Indonesia's current account deficit has been a major cause for concern.

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As we approach the end of 2013 it is worth taking a look back to the performance of the stock market of Indonesia this year. At the start of the year, investors and analysts were positive that the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would post steady growth. Initial forecasts claimed that the IHSG could surpass the 5,000 points level by the end of 2013 from 4,300 at end-2012. The actual performance of the IHSG in fact exceeded expectations as in May 2013 the index moved beyond 5,200 points.

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On Thursday 12 December 2013, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) remains unchanged at the level of 7.50 percent in December 2013. This announcement was a bit surprizing as about 80 percent of analysts expected Bank Indonesia to raise the BI rate in order to support the depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. Starting the year at IDR 9,670 per US dollar, the rupiah has fallen around 25 percent to IDR 12,081 per US dollar.

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