The Indonesian rupiah has been under pressure so far today (03/02) on concern that falling oil prices drag down other commodity prices, hence negatively affecting Indonesia's export performance. Yesterday, a global selloff in stocks occurred as oil prices were again touching the USD $30 per barrel mark. Emerging market currencies too are under pressure. The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.79 percent to IDR 13,799 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:55 pm local Jakarta time.

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Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $230 million in December 2015 as imports (USD $12.12 billion) exceeded exports (USD $11.89 billion), the second monthly trade deficit in 2015. Overall, the country's trade balance shows a surplus of USD $7.51 billion in 2015, significantly improving from the USD $2.2 billion trade deficit in the preceding year. But despite posting a good trade surplus in full-year 2015, a closer look at the data still reveals weak global and domestic conditions.

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Although not final yet, the United States plans to impose anti-dumping duties on imports of uncoated paper sheets from Indonesia. On Monday (11/01) the US Commerce Department said it plans to introduce anti-import duties in the range of 2.05 percent to 222.46 percent for uncoated paper sheet imports from Indonesia, Australia, China, Portugal and Brazil. On 22 February 2016 the final decision is expected to be announced by the US Commerce Department.

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Gejolak ekonomi yang telah mendorong pertumbuhan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) ke level terendah dalam 25 tahun terakhir telah berdampak langsung pada Indonesia karena RRT adalah mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Kekuatiran akan perlambatan ekonomi RRT (dan dampak perlambatan ini pada ekonomi dunia) bertahan pada tahun 2016 karena Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) menurun selama 10 bulan berturut-turut di Desember 2015 (di 48,2), sedangkan pembacaan jasa layanan untuk bulan Desember turun ke level terendah dalam 17 bulan terakhir (50,2).

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Indonesia mencatat defisit perdagangan yang tak terduga sebesar 346,4 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada November 2015 menurut data terbaru dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) yang dirilis pada Selasa (15/12). Ini adalah defisit perdagangan bulanan pertama di Indonesia di tahun 2015 karena ekspor turun lebih cepat - sedangkan impor menurun lebih lambat - dari yang diperkirakan. Ekspor Indonesia turun 17,6% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 11,16 miliar dollar AS pada bulan November, sedangkan impor menurun 18,0% (y/y) menjadi 11,51 miliar dollar AS. Defisit terjadi baik di saldo sektor minyak & gas (migas) maupun non-migas.

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China's yuan (also known as renminbi) was included in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) - with a weightage average of 10.91 percent - on Tuesday (01/12), a decision that will take effect on 1 October 2016. Other currencies in the SDR are the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen. This move implies that the currency of the world's second-largest economy is increasingly regarded as a global financial instrument and will be increasingly used in transactions across the globe and widely traded on foreign exchange markets.

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The terrorist attacks in Paris last week are not expected to jeopardize Indonesia's trade with France or the European Union. France is expected to tighten the flow of people, but not the flow of goods after the terrorist attacks on Friday (13/11) that led to the deaths of at least 129 people as well as hundreds of injured people. In 2014 trade between Indonesia and France totaled USD $2.35 billion, down 11 percent from the preceding year. Indonesian exports to France stood at USD $1.02 billion (exports only involved non-oil & gas products), while Indonesia's imports from France stood at USD $1.33 billion in 2014.

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For the eleventh consecutive month Indonesia posted a trade surplus. With exports reaching a total of USD $12.08 billion, while imports were USD $11.07 billion, the country posted a USD $1.01 billion trade surplus in October, the country's statistics agency (BPS) stated on Monday (16/11). The surplus was larger than expected due to a sharp drop in imports. Although the trade surplus is good news as it supports the value of the rupiah and helps to curtail the country's current account balance, there remain concerns about rapidly plunging exports and imports.

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US-based bond credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said it would be credit-positive for Indonesia's sovereign credit rating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal as participation would mitigate the negative effects of sluggish commodity prices on Indonesia's export performance. Through the TPP, which is one of the world's most ambitious trade deals covering an area that accounts for about 40 percent of world trade, Indonesia will expand its export base, Moody's wrote in a recent report.

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Presiden Joko Widodo, dikenal dengan panggilan Jokowi, akan mengumumkan paket kebijakan ekonomi kedua pada hari Selasa (29/09) di Istana Negara di Jakarta sesuai dengan pernyataan Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution. Menurut laporan, paket kedua akan berfokus terutama pada mendongkrak daya saing ekspor Indonesia dan daya tarik Indonesia sebagai tempat tujuan investasi.

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Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan sebesar 1,02 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan September 2015, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan para analis dan naik dari surplus perdagangan direvisi yang dicatat pada 328 juta dollar AS pada bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh secara beruntun terjadi surplus perdagangan di Indonesia. Kendati begitu, surplus perdagangan bulan September terutama disebabkan karena impor yang menurun cepat dan merefleksikan lemahnya pertumbuhan investasi dan lemahnya konsumsi di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini.

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Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year from five percent (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy in combination with sluggish conditions in Japan and the Eurozone. Weak demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Indonesia, is expected to continue to plague Indonesian exports and earnings.

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For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.

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For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.

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Sejak akhir 2011 Indonesia telah dibebani oleh defisit transaksi berjalan struktural yang menguatirkan baik para pembuat kebijakan maupun para investor (asing). Meskipun pihak berwenang di Indonesia telah mengimplementasikan reformasi kebijakan dan penyesuaian perekonomian di beberapa tahun terakhir, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia hanya sedikit berubah di 2015. Baik Bank Dunia maupun Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan akan tetap berada sedikit di bawah 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 2015, sangat dekat dengan batasan yang memisahkan defisit yang sustainable dan yang unsustainable.

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Kalau kita memperhatikan aktivitas jangka panjang rupiah, kita telah melihat kekuatan yang mengejutkan dalam aktivitas beberapa bulan terakhir. Hal ini mengejutkan karena beberapa alasan yang berbeda dan tidak serupa dengan keadaan pasar negara berkembang lain di Asia. Secara esensial ini menyarankan bahwa aktivitas perekonomian di wilayah ini telah agak kurang berhubungan dan bahwa trend yang tampak di satu negara tidak bisa diprediksi sama di negara lain. Namun ketika kita melihat grafik aktivitas di rupiah sendiri, kita bisa melihat trend secara umum telah mulai berubah di dua bulan terakhir.

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Indonesia posted a higher-than-expected USD $454.4 million trade surplus in April 2015. Previously, analysts predicted to see an April trade surplus of around USD $120 million. However, the USD $454.4 million trade surplus was smaller than the (revised) USD $1 billion trade surplus recorded in March. Moreover, the April surplus (the country’s fifth consecutive trade surplus) is primarily caused by a large drop in imports, signalling that Indonesia’s economic performance remains sluggish at the start of Q2-2015.

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Selama setahun terakhir, rupiah telah menguat terhadap berbagai jenis mata uang asing. Namun penguatan ini tidak berlaku terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Pada periode waktu yang sama, rupiah menguat terhadap mata uang asing lainnya dan sebaliknya rupiah melemah terhadap dollar AS. Untuk banyak investor yang berfokus pada pasar mata uang, mungkin tampaknya seakan dua mata uang ini hanya sedikit berhubungan. Namun, kalau kita melihat trend yang berkembang selama setahun terakhir, menjadi jelas bahwa keadaannya tidak seperti itu.

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Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.

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Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.

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