Eight commodity prices have been rising steadily so far this year on higher global demand. This rebound is expected to continue into 2017 although it will require a long time to touch the levels that we saw in 2011. The World Bank noted in a report released on 4 October 2016 that the prices of eight commodities - coal, crude oil, crude palm oil, copper, iron ore, tin, nickel and gold - have been rebounding so far this year. Rising commodity prices will support economic growth of Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy is one of the world's largest commodity exporters.

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Copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara, the local unit of US-based mining giant Newmont Mining Corp, requested for a new recommendation letter from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This recommendation letter is required to extend Newmont's six-month copper concentrate export permit at the nation's Trade Ministry. This would be the fourth time Newmont's export permit is extended. Whether Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry issues the export recommendation letter depends on progress made with the construction of smelting facilities.

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Indonesian oil & gas exploration and production firm Medco Energi Internasional is reportedly eager to acquire a majority stake in copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), subsidiary of the US-based mining giant Newmont Mining Corp, which operates the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine on Sumbawa (West Nusa Tenggara). On Wednesday (25/11), the Medco Group informed Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Rizal Ramli that a MoU has already been signed between Medco and NNT to purchase a 76 percent stake, valued at USD $2.2 billion.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued an export recommendation letter for copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), meaning that the company can resume copper concentrate exports for another six-month period after the previous permit expired on 22 September. Bambang Gatot, Director General for Coal and Minerals at the Energy Ministry, said NNT has met all requirements - including those related to NNT's commitment to establish domestic smelting facilities - in order to obtain the export recommendation letter.

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Saham-saham Asia menghadapi tekanan pada hari Jumat (13/11) karena rendahnya harga minyak dan meningkatnya perkiraan bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin di bulan Desember. Saham-saham sumberdaya alam menarik turun indeks-indeks saham di Australia, Hong Kong dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) lebih dari 1%. Kendati begitu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), melawan tren di Asia, telah naik 0,51% menjadi 4.485,12 poin pada pukul 10:20 WIB kendati indeks-indeks Asia yang ada di zona merah. Sementara itu, dollar AS menguat terhadap mata uang Asia namun tidak setajam perkiraan sebelumnya.

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As Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources declined to issue a recommendation for the extension of Newmont Nusa Tenggara’s export permit, operations at the Batu Hijau mine (an open-pit gold and copper mine located on the island of Sumbawa in the eastern part of Indonesia) have become uncertain. The six-month permit for copper concentrate exports of copper miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara, a unit of US-based Newmont Mining Corp, expired on Friday (18/09) and was not extended as the company failed to fulfill the government’s requirements regarding smelter development.

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Shares of Indonesian mining company Merdeka Copper Gold rose about 15 percent on its trading debut on Friday (19/06). The company, a subsidiary of Saratoga Capital, was the sixth company to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2015. Head of Finance and Corporate Secretary Ellie Turjandi said that Merdeka’s shares had been oversubscribed nearly 40 times during the public offering (11-15 June 2015), reflecting investors’ confidence even though the company has not yet begun production.

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Indonesian miners may be allowed to resume bauxite exports after a government official signalled that the Indonesian government is looking at relaxing its (raw) mineral export ban. This ban, implemented in January 2014, was introduced in an effort to boost domestic processing capacity, generate more revenue (by adding value to its mineral products) and enhance employment opportunities in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. However, amid the lack of domestic smelting capacity, the export ban has led to a plunge of exports.

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After the World Bank released a rather gloomy forecast for global economic growth on Tuesday (13/01) while crude oil prices continue to fall, global commodity prices have become under pressure on Wednesday’s trading day. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said that the global economy will grow 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was also revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent.

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Due to a strike at Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg mine in Papua, the company’s copper production has fallen by about a third thus leading to speculation that global copper prices may increase after having fallen almost ten percent in 2014. About one thousand workers of Freeport Indonesia have been on strike since the second week of October after a fatal accident at the end of last month. The workers request the sacking of around 50 managers at the subsidiary of US-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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Production is still not back on track at Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg mine in Papua as around 1,000 workers have not showed up for work since the second week of October. These workers refuse to work after a series of (fatal) incidents that led to concern about safety policies. In May 2013, 28 Freeport Indonesia workers died after a tunnel collapsed. More recently, in late September 2014, four workers died after a giant haulage truck collided with another vehicle (carrying nine passengers) at the Grasberg mine.

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Global copper prices can come under pressure as Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) has started to export copper concentrate again this week after a nine-month hiatus caused by the dispute between the Indonesian government and NNT about Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (the “New Mining Law” of Indonesia), which sets high export taxes on unprocessed mineral exports (and stipulates a complete ban by 2017), in an effort to force Indonesian miners to build local processing facilities.

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Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp, has received a permit from the Indonesian government to export 350,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in the next three years. Three weeks ago it became known that both parties agreed on the content of a renegotiation package after an eight-month dispute over Indonesia’s mineral ore export ban, implemented on 12 January 2014 (part of the New Mining Law). In the remainder of 2014, the company is expected to export 160,000 tons.

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Reportedly, Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) will not seek international arbitration at the Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in Washington (USA). Previously, the miner threatened to file for arbitration in an attempt to force the Indonesian government to cancel the recently introduced ban on exports of unprocessed minerals as well as to abort higher export duties. NNT is a subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corporation that operates the Batu Hijau mine, an open pit copper and gold mine in Sumbawa.

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Subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, Freeport Indonesia, decided to build its copper smelter in Gresik (East Java) as infrastructure around this regency makes it easier to transport its mining products for export purposes. The other location that Freeport was considering was in Papua, near its mining site the Grasberg mine, the world’s largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. However, infrastructure in Papua (one of the poorest regions in Indonesia) is still underdeveloped.

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Freeport Indonesia, subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, is optimistic that the Indonesian government will extend the company’s contract to operate the Grasberg mine in Papua (eastern Indonesia). This mine is the world’s largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. The current contract between the Indonesian government and Freeport Indonesia expires in 2021. However, Freeport is currently in need of some certainty before investing a large amount on mining operations and smelting facilities.

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The dispute between the Indonesian government and mining giant Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) over the recently implemented ban on the export of unprocessed copper, gold, nickel, bauxite and iron is heading for a climax. In Indonesian media, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was quoted saying “NNT has undermined the sense of justice of the Indonesian people” and pronounced his disappointment of NNT’s reluctance to respect the sovereignty of the state. Previously, the government said it may revoke mining permits of NNT.

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Whether Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) will file for international arbitration over a six-month old export dispute with the Indonesian government remains unclear. Although many analysts would like to see international arbitration over this case, such a step would imply several risks for the copper miner (which is for 56 percent owned by US-based Newmont Mining Corporation and Japan’s Nusa Tenggara Mining Corporation). The source of the dispute is Indonesia’s recently-introduced ban on exports of ore concentrates.

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In the last 12 months, the international copper price showed a neutral movement (moving more or less sideways). This is particularly due to a number of issues in China, the world’s second largest economy, which impact negatively on the copper price movement. China has become such an important market for a variety of commodities, including copper (used in construction and electronics), that other countries can be considered almost irrelevant. Why do analysts have low expectations of the copper market for the remainder of 2014?

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