Seperti yang disetujui pada bulan lalu, pada November ini Indonesia akan mulai mengimpor sekitar 1,5 juta ton beras dari Vietnam. Sebelumnya di tahun ini, Indonesia telah mengimpor 60.000 ton beras untuk menstabilkan harga beras karena ada kenaikan harga beras yang menguatirkan, yang Pemerintah tuduhkan terjadi karena mark-up harga oleh para pedagang pasar. Beras adalah makanan pokok untuk penduduk Indonesia, mengimplikasikan bahwa segmen masyarakat miskin menghabiskan porsi yang relatif besar dari pendapatan yang dapat dibelanjakan mereka untuk membeli beras. Ini berarti bahwa inflasi beras dapat menyebabkan kenaikan angka kemiskinan.

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Tingkat inflasi di Indonesia diperkirakan makin menurun pada Februari 2015 karena harga bahan-bahan makanan menurun. Pengecualian ada pada harga beras. Harga beras telah meningkat 30% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya menjadi Rp 12 ribu per kilogram di bulan Februari. Harga beras yang lebih tinggi disebabkan karena banyaknya halangan dalam operasi-operasi untuk distribusi raskin dikombinasikan dengan musim panen yang terlambat di tahun ini (antara Maret dan Juni). Fluktuasi harga beras, makanan pokok untuk 250 juta penduduk Indonesia, memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia.

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The price of rice in several Indonesian regions has risen by between 17 to 23 percent to IDR 8,500-9,000 per kilogram as rice production at the start of the year has not been able to meet rice demand. In January 2015, Indonesian rice production stood at 2 million tons, whereas demand reached 2.5 million tons. Inflation of rice is a sensitive issue in Indonesia because it jeopardizes declining poverty rates as poorer segments of Indonesian society spend over half of their total disposable income on food items, primarily rice.

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Prices of certain food products in Indonesia have risen steeply during the first week of Ramadan, the Islamic fasting month. Higher prices are a sensitive issue at the moment as the country is fighting higher inflation after subsidized fuel prices were increased in June. Therefore, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent last week. If inflation exceeds 2.3 percent in July (month to month) then it might result in another upward revision of the interest rate, thus slowing down Indonesia's economic growth.

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Corn is among the four strategic commodities that receive special attention in the blueprint of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The AEC’s food blueprint aims to enhance food security & sovereignty of corn, rice, soybeans and cassava in the ASEAN region. Indonesia is currently the region’s largest corn producer. However, Indonesian corn consumption continues to outpace domestic corn production, resulting in a deficit. This column provides an overview of Indonesia’s corn sector in the context of the AEC.

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Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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