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Although Indonesia's cigarette industry is considered to be a sunset industry (which refers to an industry that has passed its peak or boom periods) there are two factors that may somewhat pause the industry's decline on the short and middle-long term.
Across the world the use of the electronic cigarette (e-cigarette), a habit that is often called vaping, has risen significantly since the introduction of the modern e-cigarette in 2003 (in China). Also in Indonesia more and more people are seen using the e-cigarette, a device that tries to create the sensation of tobacco smoking.
At the start of 2018 the Indonesian government will again raise the excise tax on tobacco products (including cigarettes) in Indonesia. The tax will be raised by an average of 10.04 percent, effective per 1 January 2018. Traditionally, the government hikes the tobacco excise tax once per year in search of more tax revenue and to discourage consumption of tobacco products.
Indonesian cigarette manufacturer Gudang Garam will raise prices of its tobacco products if the central government goes ahead with its plans to introduce another cigarette excise tax hike at the start of 2018. This statement was made by Gudang Garam Director Istata Siddharta.
The Finance Ministry of Indonesia will study whether the price of a package of cigarettes can be raised to IDR 50,000 (approx. USD $3.8), almost twice as high as the current average price of a package of cigarettes in Indonesia. The price hike would help the government to reduce a looming tax shortfall and discourage people from consuming their death sticks. The Tobacco Atlas estimates that there are 53.7 million active adult smokers and 2.6 million active youth smokers in Indonesia. Hence, Indonesia is the third-largest cigarette consumer (after China and Russia).
Tahun 2015 adalah tahun yang sulit bagi industri rokok Indonesia karena terjadi kenaikan cukai sebesar 8,7% untuk produk-produk tembakau pada awal tahun 2015 dan melemahnya daya beli masyarakat akibat perlambatan ekonomi negara ini. Pada sembilan bulan pertama tahun 2015 penjualan rokok di Indonesia jatuh 1,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 232 miliar rokok. Tahun depan, tantangan-tantangan akan tetap ada karena Pemerintah Indonesia mempersiapkan kenaikan pajak tembakau yang baru (23%). Kendati begitu, daya beli masyarakat diprediksi membaik karena pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin berakselerasi.
In order to generate more tax revenue in 2016 the Indonesian government plans to raise tobacco taxes by 23 percent (as mentioned in the draft of the 2016 State Budget). This plan resulted in concern among Indonesia’s cigarette producers as the country’s purchasing power has already been curtailed amid the nation’s economic slowdown and high inflation. Contrary to the global trend, the Asian region recorded solid tobacco sales growth in recent years but now these countries seem to join in on anti-tobacco measures such as higher excise taxes and large pictorial warnings on packages.
According to the Indonesian Ministry of Health, approximately one-third of Indonesians aged over ten years smoke (36 percent), with 67 percent of men and 4.5 percent of women smoking some form of tobacco. While Indonesia is the fifth-largest tobacco market in the world, it is the only World Health Organization (WHO) member state in Southeast Asia that has not ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The FCTC was developed in response to the globalisation of the tobacco industry and tobacco use.
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Shares of Gudang Garam, Indonesia's leading kretek (clove cigarettes) producer, surged 1.92 percent to IDR 79,500 on Friday (24/11). So far this year the company's shares, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, have risen 24.4 percent. This is remarkable considering there are plenty of negative issues going on in Indonesia's cigarette industry.
Every year Indonesia's Tax Office adjusts the excise tax on tobacco products. The adjustment is always made in consideration of the central government's tax revenue targets as well as the input of specific stakeholders (including pro-health lobby groups, or groups that defend the interests of tobacco manufacturers or farmers).
The Indonesian government is advised to make a new roadmap for the cigarette (and tobacco-related products) industry that includes targets for the short, middle and long-term. Moreover, the roadmap should involve strategies that aim to find a middle way between reducing cigarette consumption (protecting citizens' health) in Indonesia while at the same time optimizing lucrative state revenue from this industry (as well as safeguarding the jobs of the nearly six million of Indonesians who are working in the cigarette supply chain).
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