Rice is a crucial commodity, particularly for Asia where most of the population is dependent on rice as the basic staple food that is consumed on a daily basis (and usually multiple times per day). It is estimated that more than 90 percent of rice is produced and consumed in Asia. Hence, rice consumption and production in the West is rather insignificant (although rice does have a centuries-long history in the West and thus there also developed specific European rice culinary specialties such as the risotto in Italy or the paella in Spain). Thus, rice-producing Asia is a net exporter of rice to the rest of the world.

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Andi Amran Sulaiman, Indonesia's Agriculture Minister, says Indonesia is ready to become a rice exporter after Indonesia managed to become self-sufficient in rice in 2016. Last year Indonesia produced a total of 79.17 million of unmilled tons of rice, significantly above the government target that was set at 72 million tons. Although Indonesia is the world's third-largest rice producer the country usually needs to import rice from Vietnam or Thailand to maintain stable prices and meet huge rice demand at home. Rice is the staple food of basically all Indonesian people.

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Rice reserves in Indonesia need to be pushed to higher minimum levels. Currently the nation's rice stocks are estimated to range between 300,000 - 400,000 tons (per year). Given that Indonesia's agricultural output is being plagued by weather phenomenons, the existing low level of rice reserves can cause major problems. Rice, the favorite staple food crop of the Indonesian people, can cause accelerated inflation in times of shortages and push the millions of people living just above the poverty line into full poverty.

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Indonesian Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman has a strong suspicion that the "rice mafia" is behind the recent fluctuations in rice supply and prices in Indonesia. Suspicion emerged after new rice supplies suddenly 'flooded' Indonesian markets in February when prices of rice had already risen due to the scarcity of supplies. Sulaiman believes there is a cartel consisting of six big Indonesian rice distributors that deliberately hid rice output after last year's harvest and waited for prices to rise significantly before supplying rice to the markets in order to see higher profits.

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Indonesian rice producer Buyung Poetra Sembada will offer 710 million new shares, or 30.08 percent of the company's expanded capital, to the market through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The new shares will be offered at between IDR 420-500 per share, hence aiming to raise up to IDR 355 billion (approx. USD $26 million), in December 2015. Buyung Poetra Sembada is a rice producer known for its Topi Koki brand. Underwriter for the offering is Bahana Securities.

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Seperti yang disetujui pada bulan lalu, pada November ini Indonesia akan mulai mengimpor sekitar 1,5 juta ton beras dari Vietnam. Sebelumnya di tahun ini, Indonesia telah mengimpor 60.000 ton beras untuk menstabilkan harga beras karena ada kenaikan harga beras yang menguatirkan, yang Pemerintah tuduhkan terjadi karena mark-up harga oleh para pedagang pasar. Beras adalah makanan pokok untuk penduduk Indonesia, mengimplikasikan bahwa segmen masyarakat miskin menghabiskan porsi yang relatif besar dari pendapatan yang dapat dibelanjakan mereka untuk membeli beras. Ini berarti bahwa inflasi beras dapat menyebabkan kenaikan angka kemiskinan.

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Indonesian state news agency Antara reported that the El Nino weather phenomenon has begun to affect several parts of the country. El Nino, which occurs once every five years on average, causes climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean leading to droughts in Southeast Asia and therefore has a major impact on harvests of agricultural commodities. Moreover, due to the shortage of rain, it is easier for fires to damage the environment. Antara reported that in Banten (West Java) as well as in Riau and Jambi (Sumatra) these effects are felt.

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In order to avert a spike in inflation and social unrest, Indonesian President Joko Widodo may feel forced to allow around 1.5 million metric tons of rice imports in 2015 as domestic prices of rice have been rising on sluggish local harvests. Moreover, an intensifying El Nino is expected to cause dry weather in the months ahead hence further jeopardizing rice productivity. These already tough conditions will be exacerbated by seasonal Islamic celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) that always trigger increased consumption of food products.

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Tingkat inflasi di Indonesia diperkirakan makin menurun pada Februari 2015 karena harga bahan-bahan makanan menurun. Pengecualian ada pada harga beras. Harga beras telah meningkat 30% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya menjadi Rp 12 ribu per kilogram di bulan Februari. Harga beras yang lebih tinggi disebabkan karena banyaknya halangan dalam operasi-operasi untuk distribusi raskin dikombinasikan dengan musim panen yang terlambat di tahun ini (antara Maret dan Juni). Fluktuasi harga beras, makanan pokok untuk 250 juta penduduk Indonesia, memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia.

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The price of rice in several Indonesian regions has risen by between 17 to 23 percent to IDR 8,500-9,000 per kilogram as rice production at the start of the year has not been able to meet rice demand. In January 2015, Indonesian rice production stood at 2 million tons, whereas demand reached 2.5 million tons. Inflation of rice is a sensitive issue in Indonesia because it jeopardizes declining poverty rates as poorer segments of Indonesian society spend over half of their total disposable income on food items, primarily rice.

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There are many important commodities. But if we talk about food commodities, then rice certainly ranks high. This particularly applies to Asia where the populations are dependent on rice as the basic staple food that is consumed every day (and usually up to three times per day).

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Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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