In 2015 the crude oil supply glut stemming from OPEC countries and the US shale gas revolution put severe downward pressure on commodity prices, including crude palm oil (CPO). Thanks to the El Nino and La Nina weather phenomenons (and a moratorium on new palm oil concessions) CPO output was curtailed in 2015 and 2016, implying some upward pressure for CPO prices, hence rebounding from a multi-year low of USD $526 per ton in November 2015. In 2016 the CPO price is expected to average USD $670 per ton.

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Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

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The El Nino-inflicted dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, possibly the worst in nearly two decades, is expected to curtail crude palm oil (CPO) output in both countries, implying that palm oil prices can extend their rally into next year. Moreover, Indonesia will consume more CPO as the government will raise the mandatory amount of palm oil blended with diesel from 15 to 20 percent (part of its B20 biofuel program) in early 2016. Since August - when prices were at a six-year low - palm oil futures have surged 26 percent.

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Pajak ekspor Indonesia untuk pengapalan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) akan tetap pada 0% di Oktober 2015 karena harga referensi CPO Pemerintah jatuh 13% (month-on-month) menjadi 529,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton. Ketika harga referensi CPO ini berada di bawah batasan 750 dollar AS per ton, maka Pemerintah menghapuskan pajak ekspor dalam rangka untuk membuat pembelian minyak sawit Indonesia menjadi lebih menarik. Kendati begitu, para eksportir masih tetap dikenai beacukai ekspor minyak sawit yang baru-baru ini diberlakukan. Ketika pajak ekspor dipotong menjadi 0%, para eksportir diharuskan untuk membayar beacukai senilai 50 dollar AS per ton untuk pengapalan CPO dan 30 dollar AS per ton untuk pengapalan produk-produk minyak sawit olahan (sebagian dari pendapatan ini disalurkan kepada program subsidi biodiesel Indonesia).

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to reach 40 million tons in 2020, in line with the government’s national program and downstream CPO roadmap. At the 3rd Indonesia International Palm Oil Processing Machinery & Technology Exhibition, Pranata, Director of Forest and Plantation Industries at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, said that, based on the roadmap, targeted CPO production growth should average 6.8 percent per year up to 2020, so the country will produce 40 million tons by that year.

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Due to rising output amid the start of the seasonal increase in production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers, CPO prices may touch a six-year low in 2015. According to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International, there is one factor that may be able to block CPO prices from reaching this low and that is the successful implementation of Indonesia’s biodiesel program as this would absorb a significant portion of Indonesian CPO output hence reducing downward pressures on CPO prices.

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Pengapalan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) dari Malaysia naik 18% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) pada bulan Maret karena perusahaan-perusahaan segera mengekspor CPO sebelum penerapan (kembali) pajak ekspor 4,5% di bulan April. Pajak ekspor ini telah dihapus sejak September 2014 dalam usaha untuk mendongkrak permintaan dan harga CPO. Diprediksi bahwa produksi rata-rata CPO di Malaysia naik 18% (m/m) menjadi 1,32 juta ton di bulan Maret, yang juga berarti bahwa produksi minyak sawit di Malaysia meningkat untuk pertama kalinya di dalam 7 bulan.

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The world’s two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters, Indonesia and Malaysia, are expected to maintain their zero percent export tariffs for CPO in January 2015 according to Dorab Mistry, Executive at Godrej Industries Ltd (India's leading manufacturer of oleochemicals), in an interview to international news agency Reuters. Authorities in Malaysia (since September 2014) and Indonesia (since October 2014) have implemented duty-free CPO shipments in an effort to boost global CPO demand and prices.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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