Pemerintah Indonesia meneruskan perjuangan mereka untuk meringankan kekuatiran masyarakat tentang dampak dari rupiah yang lemah pada perekonomian Indonesia. Bahkan, Pemerintah menekankan bahwa rupiah yang lemah akan berdampak positif pada neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan karena produk-produk ekspor Indonesia menjadi lebih kompetitif. Selama satu minggu ini, rupiah melemah 1% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sejak awal 2015, rupiah telah jatuh 4,4% terhadap dollar AS, karenanya menjadi salah satu mata uang di negara-negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk di tahun ini.

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Ketika nilai tukar rupiah jatuh di bawah batasan yang menguatirkan yaitu Rp 13,000 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Rabu (05/03), baik Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro dan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) mengatakan bahwa tidak perlu panik karena performa rupiah terhadap dollar AS masih sejalan dengan performa mata uang-mata uang lain terhadap dollar AS. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, nilai rupiah telah melemah 0,28% menjadi Rp 13,028 pada pukul 13:35 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB).

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Nilai tukar rupiah melemah 0,79% menjadi Rp 12.932 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index pada hari Jumat (27/02), level terendah sejak akhir 2008, setelah bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) menyatakan tidak berencana melakukan terlalu banyak intervensi untuk mendukung rupiah. Bank Indonesia (BI) menyatakan tidak memiliki level target untuk rupiah dan tidak akan melawan pasar. Statemen ini merupakan sinyal-sinyal bahwa BI nyaman dengan rupiah yang lemah demi memperbaiki neraca transaksi berjalan.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated JCI or IHSG) posted a series of consecutive record high closes during the past week, primarily on the central bank’s (Bank Indonesia) decision to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent, investors’ positive outlook on Indonesian companies’ corporate earnings in 2015 and expectation that the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program will offset the negative impact of monetary tightening in the USA.

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One day after the surprise interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank, Indonesian stocks surge to a new record level led by interest rate sensitive stocks (such as financial institutions, construction firms and property firms) while the rupiah and government bonds are weakening. Yesterday (17/02), Bank Indonesia shocked markets by lowering its key interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points, each, to 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Easing monetary policy is back in fashion among the region’s central banks.

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Indonesia posted a USD $709.4 million trade surplus in January 2015 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Monday (16/02). Although the surplus is higher than expected and thus has a positive impact on the country’s trade and current account balances, the data also indicated that exports fell 8.09 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $13.30 billion signalling continued weakening global demand for Indonesian exports. Meanwhile, Indonesian imports shrank by 15.6 percent (y/y) to USD $12.59 billion.

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On 15 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the latest current account figures, foreign exchange risks, foreign ownership in the banking sector, biodiesel prices, investments in the cement industry, the Cilamaya port tender, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (13/02) that Indonesia’s current account deficit - the broadest measure of trade in goods and services - improved to 2.81 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), or USD $6.2 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2014 (from a revised 2.99 percent of GDP in the preceding quarter). The full-year 2014 deficit amounted to USD $26.2 billion, equivalent to 2.95 percent of GDP from a (revised) deficit of USD $29.1 billion (3.18 percent of GDP) in 2013.

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Nilai tukar rupiah Indonesia turun tajam pada hari Kamis (12/02). Pada pukul 12:10 siang waktu setempat wilayah Jakarta, rupiah melemah 1.11 persen menjadi Rp 12,865 per dolar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para pelaku pasar semakin khawatir dengan masalah utang Yunani dan skenario keluarnya negara itu dari Eurozone terus bereaksi dengan menjual aset pasar-pasar berkembang untuk mendapatkan safe haven seperti dolar AS. Kemarin, (11/02), para menteri keuangan Eurozone tidak mencapai kesepakatan tentang masalah utang Yunani.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative untuk Indonesia di International Monetary Fund (IMF), memperkirakan bahwa bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan terus berkomitmen pada kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat dalam upaya untuk menjaga fundamental fiskal nasional di tengah tekanan eksternal. Terlepas dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lamban, kenaikan suku bunga di AS (tahun ini) diperkirakan mempengaruhi Indonesia karena akan mendorong aliran keluar modal dari pasar-pasar berkembang.

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In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the November 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri stated that the government of Indonesia is busy preparing three new policies that aim to restore financial stability as well as attract foreign direct investments. These three new policies involve the higher sales tax on imported luxury cars, a revision of Indonesia's negative investment list, and the higher income tax on imported consumption goods. These three new policies are in addition to the policy package that was introduced by the Indonesian government in August 2013.

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Although widespread concerns about Indonesia's prolonged trade deficit (and current account deficit) are far from unfounded, the country's October 2013 trade data show a positive result. On Monday (02/12), Statistics Indonesia announced that Southeast Asia's largest economy posted a small trade surplus of USD $42.4 million in October after having recorded a trade deficit of USD $810 million in the previous month. This calender year (January to October 2013), the trade deficit has accumulated to USD $6.36 billion.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index which is also known as the IHSG) gained 0.53 percent on Friday (29/11) and ended on 4,256.43 points. Today's trading day was relatively quiet with a transaction value of only IDR 3.30 trillion (USD $276.50 million). Foreign net buying of Indonesian shares supported the IHSG index to end this month's last trading day on a positive note. Sectors that performed well were agriculture (+2.18 percent), construction (+1.27 percent), and mining (+0.99 percent).

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On Friday (29/11), the last trading day of November 2013, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate¹ fell 0.39 percent to IDR 11,970 per US dollar amid concern about the winding down of the quantitative easing program, Indonesia's wide current account deficit, a disappointing US dollar-denominated bond auction and surging US dollar demand for earnings repatriation as well as foreign debt payment. Considering the full month of November, the rupiah depreciated 6.61 percent.

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Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.

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The government of Indonesia will release two additional fiscal policy packages at the end of November or start of December that both aim to heal Indonesia's current account deficit. The two packages constitute follow ups of the policy package that was released in August 2013. Previously, deputy minister of Finance, Bambang Brodjonegoro, announced that an additional package would be released in October. However, it turned out that the government needed some more time to prepare the two additional packages.

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On Thursday 14 November 2013, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), delivered his end-of-the-year speech at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner. The meeting was attended by leaders from Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), economic ministers, leaders of the country's banking industry and business community, non-ministerial government agencies as well as a number of international institutions, thus representing a strategic forum in terms of the national economy.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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