Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to expand in June 2018 albeit at a lower level compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from a reading of 51.7 in May to 50.3 in June (slightly above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector). Slower rises in both output and new orders were key reasons that explain the month-on-month decline.

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Indonesia's manufacturing sector has seen its contribution to overall Indonesian macroeconomic growth sliding over the past two decades. The cause is the lack of new and innovative products in this sector. This is the conclusion of Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development and a Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

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Over the past decades, Indonesia's manufacturing industry has developed from a significant growth engine (for the whole economy) into a less significant one. Prior to the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998, non-oil & gas manufacturing accounted for 30 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Today, however, the figure is around 18 percent. If we add the oil & gas industry, then the figure rises only slightly to 19.9 percent.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to expand in September 2017, albeit at a slower pace compared to the preceding month. Based on the new Nikkei survey, released on Monday (02/10), Indonesia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was recorded at 50.4 points, down from 50.7 in August (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the country's manufacturing activity).

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Rising output and stronger export orders caused a modest recovery in Indonesia's manufacturing sector in August 2017. Indonesia's Nikkei-Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to a reading of 50.7 in August, from 48.6 in July (50.0 separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing industry).

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Growth of manufacturing activity in Indonesia eased in May 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.6 in May from a reading of 51.2 in the preceding month. Last month manufacturing activity in Indonesia had hit a 10-month high, hence the lower reading indicates a loss of growth momentum for Indonesia's manufacturing sector. However, it remained comfortably above the boom-or-bust line of 50.0 that separates expansion from contraction.

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Good news for Indonesian manufacturers. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded a second consecutive month of growth, touching a 10-month high of 51.2 in April 2017 (from a reading of 50.5 in the preceding month), as further expansion in order books encouraged local companies to boost production, while the relatively weaker rupiah rate (versus the US dollar) exerted upward pressure on input prices, with cost inflation reaching an 18-month peak. Subsequently, output prices rose at an accelerated pace.

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Amid falling output and declining new orders as well as sharply rising input costs, Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted again in February 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a reading of 49.3 in February, sliding from 50.4 in the preceding month (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 points at expansion of the manufacturing sector). Meanwhile, buying levels remained unchanged.

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Indonesia's manufacturing sector is targeted to provide employment to a total of 16.3 million workers in 2017, up 5 percent from 15.5 million workers in the preceding year. As such, development of the manufacturing industry is a good strategy to reduce Indonesia's unemployment rate. Industries within the manufacturing sector of Indonesia that absorb the highest number of workers are the textile, footwear, food & beverage, and automotive industries.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved in the first month of 2017. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to a reading of 50.4 in January 2017, from a reading of 49.0 in the preceding month supported by a slight increase in order books (a reading above 50 signals expansion of the nation's manufacturing industry, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction). The latest data end a three-month contraction streak in Indonesia's manufacturing sector.

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Overall, market participants are satisfied with Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2017. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) released the nation's official first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday (05/05). It showed a 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace in Q1-2017, in line with - and even above some institutions' - expectations. Moreover, the figure confirms that Indonesia's economic growth continues to accelerate. In the first quarters of 2015 and 2016 GDP growth was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y) and 4.92 percent (y/y), respectively.

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In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan hari ini (01/09) bahwa inflasi Indonesia telah sedikit menurun menjadi 7,18% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Agustus 2015, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Pada basis month-on-month, inflasi naik 0,39% di bulan Agustus, di bawah perkiraan para analis. Sementara itu, sektor manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi di bulan Agustus, meskipun kondisinya membaik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.

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One of the key strategies to improve the economic fundamentals of Indonesia is to restructure and strengthen the country’s exports. This restructuring involves the transformation of Indonesian exports from being dominated by (raw) commodities to manufactured exports by developing downstream industries in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, including import substitution industrialization in order to curb the country’s demand for imported products amid Indonesians’ rising purchasing power.

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Walaupun pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bergerak lebih lambat pada tahun 2014, terlihat optimisme bahwa pertumbuhan tersebut akan rebound pada tahun 2015 meskipun kondisi ekonomi global belum kondusif (dan membatasi kinerja ekspor Indonesia) serta lingkungan suku bunga Indonesia yang masih tinggi. Bank Indonesia menaikkan BI rate beberapa kali selama satu setengah tahun terakhir dalam upaya untuk mencegah inflasi tinggi (yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM subsidi), menghambat aliran keluar modal menjelang pengetatan moneter AS, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan dan mendukung nilai rupiah.

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At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.

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Indonesia’s inflation reached 2.46 percent month-to-month (m/m) in December 2014 due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented on 18 November 2014. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia’s inflation was recorded at 8.36 percent, slightly lower than the result in 2013 (8.38 percent). Inflation has been high in 2013 and 2014 as the Indonesian government raised prices of subsidized fuels in both years in an attempt to relieve fiscal pressures brought about by costly oil imports.

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Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate appreciated slightly on Tuesday (02/12). By 12:50 pm local Jakarta time, the currency had appreciated 0.03 percent to 12,277 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Yesterday, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated to the lowest level since January 2014 after official government data showed that inflation had accelerated sharply, while exports contracted more than expected, implying that the country’s wide current account deficit remains troublesome.

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