Inflasi Indonesia berakselerasi menjadi 7,26% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Juni 2015 karena harga bahan pangan yang lebih tinggi yang dipicu oleh awal bulan Ramadan (bulan puasa yang suci bagi umat Islam). Perayaan musiman Ramadan dan dilanjutkan oleh Idul Fitri selalu menyebabkan tekanan inflasi di Indonesia karena konsumen meningkatkan belanja mereka. Meskipun daya beli masyarakat Indonesia telah menurun di beberapa bulan terakhir, direfleksikan dengan melambatnya penjualan mobil dan sepeda motor, barang-barang konsumen yang lebih murah seperti makanan, pakaian, sepatu dan tas saat ini sedang banyak terjual.

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Satu bulan menjelang bulan suci Ramadan, harga bahan makanan telah mulai naik. Sudah menjadi fenomena tradisional bahwa menjelang Ramadan (dan selama bulan ini dan dilanjutkan dengan perayaan Idul Fitri) inflasi memuncak karena orang-orang Indonesia menghabiskan lebih banyak uang untuk produk makanan (untuk berbuka puasa di malam hari setelah puasa berakhir setiap harinya) dan produk konsumen lainnya seperti pakaian dan sepatu. Meskipun begitu, beberapa kekuatiran telah muncul karena Peraturan Presiden tentang kontrol harga belum diterbitkan.

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Setelah mengalami dua bulan deflasi berturut-turut, Indonesia kembali mengalami kenaikan Indeks Harga Konsumen pada bulan Maret 2015. Menurut data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia mencatat kenaikan inflasi 0,17% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) pada bulan Maret. Hasil ini sejalan dengan proyeksi para analis. Pada basis year-on-year (y/y), inflasi Indonesia naik 6,38% dari bulan yang sama di tahun kemarin, sedikit lebih tinggi dari 6,29% (y/y) yang tercatat di bulan Februari. Inflasi inti negara meningkat menjadi 5,04% (y/y) di bulan Maret.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia’s inflation rate in March will be around 0.3 to 0.4 percent month-to-month (m/m), slightly higher than its earlier forecast of around 0.28 percent (m/m). Later this week, Statistics Indonesia will release the country’s March inflation figure. In February inflation eased to 6.29 percent year-on-year (y/y) - from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month - amid declining fuel and food prices despite some inflationary pressures caused by higher rice prices.

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Pada 2 Maret 2015, Badan Pusat Statistik mengumumkan bahwa tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia menurun pada bulan Februari. Di bulan Februari, tingkat inflasi tahunan di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara menurun menjadi 6,29% dari 6,96% pada bulan sebelumnya. Hal ini disebabkan karena turunnya harga bahan bakar dan harga bahan makanan (terutama cabai) kendati adanya tekanan inflasi yang dipicu oleh tingginya harga beras. Pada periode antar bulan (month-to-month), Indonesia mencatat deflasi sebesar 0,36% pada bulan Februari, setelah Januari 2015 juga mencatat deflasi bulanan.

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The pace of inflation in Indonesia may reach 0.36 percent month-to-month (m/m) in October 2014, slightly higher than inflation in the preceding month (0.27 percent m/m). This forecast for October inflation is higher than this month’s historic average. Usually October tends to show low inflation or deflation as the harvest season commences and other inflationary pressures have also eased after the inflation peak in the June-August period (brought about by seasonal matters such as Islamic celebrations and the start of the new school year).

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As expected, the pace of inflation in Indonesia eased in August 2014. On Monday (01/09), Statistics Indonesia announced that August inflation reached 0.47 percent, implying that on a year-on-year basis inflation eased to 3.99 percent from 4.53 percent in the previous month. Meanwhile, Indonesia posted a USD $124 million trade surplus in July 2014 mainly due to declining imports of machinery and mechanical instruments. The country’s manufacturing activity, however, contracted in August for the first time in a year.

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The latest Bank Indonesia survey on the topic of inflation suggests that Indonesia’s inflation pace in August 2014 is still relatively safe. Based on the survey, which monitored inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy up to the third week of the month and which usually forms a good indicator for the inflation figure at the month-end, Indonesian inflation in August will be lower than the 0.93 percentage point (month-to-month) of inflation recorded in the previous month. Inflation in Indonesia always shows a peak around in the period June to August.

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On Monday (04/08), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the July 2014 inflation figure was 0.93 percent (month-on-month), considerably higher than the 0.43 percent of inflation in the previous month but significantly lower than the 3.29 percent inflation recorded in July last year (when inflation accelerated sharply due to higher subsidized fuel prices implemented by the government in June 2013). Head of BPS Suryamin stated that food prices contributed most to the July inflation pace, followed by instant food, drinks, cigarettes and tobacco.

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On Tuesday morning (01/07), Chief Statistician at Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Dr. Suryamin announced that inflation rose 0.43 percent (month-on-month) in June 2014. The foodstuff component provided highest inflationary pressures in the past month. On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation eased to 6.70 percent from 7.32 percent in May 2014. Calender year inflation (up to June 2014) rose to 1.99 percent. Later today, Indonesia Investments will publish an analysis of June inflation.

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While we saw the highest monthly inflation rate (of the year) in December 2023, it was lower than we had projected. The latest data published by Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) show that headline inflation reached 0.41 percent month-on-month (m/m) in December 2023.

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On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.

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Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.

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In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation at 0.15 percent month-to-month (m/m) in February 2016. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said lower (government) administered prices in combination with low core inflation will be the recipe for deflation in the second month of the year. The lower administered prices that are primarily the cause of deflation consist of fuel prices, air fares and 12-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) canisters. In the first month of the year Indonesian inflation accelerated to 4.14 percent (y/y).

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After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan hari ini (01/09) bahwa inflasi Indonesia telah sedikit menurun menjadi 7,18% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Agustus 2015, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Pada basis month-on-month, inflasi naik 0,39% di bulan Agustus, di bawah perkiraan para analis. Sementara itu, sektor manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi di bulan Agustus, meskipun kondisinya membaik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi kenaikan inflasi di bulan Juni dan Juli karena perayaan Ramadan dan Idul Fitri, kemungkinan dampak fenomena cuaca El Nino, dan tahun ajaran baru. Bank Indonesia memprediksi akan ada inflasi 0,66% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) di bulan Juni 2015, yang terutama didorong oleh harga bahan pangan yang tidak stabil (fenomena normal menjelang Idul Fitri). Pada basis year-on-year (y/y), inflasi Indonesia diprediksi untuk meningkat menjadi 7,40%, dari 7,15% di bulan Mei.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday morning (04/05) that Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 6.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015. On a month-to-month basis, Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.36 percent in April. Although this result is in line with analysts’ previous projections, April inflation realization is in sharp contrast with the ‘usual’ inflation pace in the fourth month of the year. Usually, Indonesia records slight deflation in April as prices ease amid the peak of the harvest season.

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