Bappenas Expects Indonesia to Record a Trade Surplus in 2014
Indonesian exports are expected to rise 6.7 percent to IDR 1,399.7 trillion (USD $123.9 billion) in 2014 as a number of advanced markets (including the United States) have been showing signs of improving economies (the calculation of the figures was done by the Ministry of National Development Planning also known as Bappenas). Increased demand from these advanced markets will result in more exports of Indonesian manufactured products. Indonesian exports of natural resources, on the contrary, are expected to slow.
An improving US economy is of especial importance for Indonesia because the world's largest economy is - together with China and Japan - among the most important trading partners of Indonesia. The economy of China, on the other hand, has been slowing and therefore it is important for Indonesia to focus on new markets, preferably with a focus on new export products as well, such as bags, shoes and textiles.
In 2013, Indonesia's total exports reached IDR 1,311.8 trillion (USD $116.1 billion), a 5.3 percentage growth (year-on-year).
Imports in Indonesia in 2014 are projected to grow 5.7 percent to IDR 1,075.2 trillion (USD $95.2 billion) from IDR 1,017.2 trillion (USD $90.0 billion). The growth of imports is attributed to the high number of Indonesia- based entrepreneurs who intend to import capital goods in order to boost production rates as Indonesia's household consumption continues to rise.
Based on the ministry's calculation, Indonesia should record a trade surplus of between USD $28 and $29 billion in 2014. This result would also be able to further reduce the country's wide current account deficit to below 3 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP), although the country needs more structural reforms in order to push the current account back into a surplus.