It took a while – in fact a couple of months – but the Indonesian government has now finally become realistic about its forecast for economic growth in (the remainder of) 2020. Obviously, it had no other option after the country’s Q2-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data had been released in August. These data showed a 5.32 percent year-on-year (y/y) contraction for Southeast Asia’s largest economy in Q2-2020.
In September 2020 there were two key Indonesian policymakers (the Coordinating Minister for Economic affairs and the Finance Minister) who came with revised (and realistic) forecasts for Indonesia’s Q3-2020 economic expansion. As a consequence, their outlooks for Indonesia’s full-year 2020 growth are now much more realistic too.
Their conclusions are (1) that Indonesia is expected to enter a recession in Q3-2020 (after experiencing two straight quarters of negative growth), and (2) that full-year 2020 economic growth is (highly) likely to be negative.
Read the full article in our September 2020 report. You can order the report by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org or message to +62(0)8.788.410.6944 (incl. WhatsApp).
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