The data show that Indonesia’s economy expanded 3.51 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2021.

Most analysts and policymakers had put their growth outlooks in the range of 4.0 – 4.5 percent (y/y), and so we can certainly argue that this official figure is somewhat disappointing. On the other hand, we have repeatedly warned that the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis goes slower than (initially) assumed.

Meanwhile, having the fresh Q3-2021 GDP data in hand, we can now also set a more accurate forecast for Indonesia’s full-year 2021 economic growth. Expecting a GDP growth figure of 4.0 – 4.5 percent (y/y) in Q4-2021, our full-year outlook is now set at 3.5 percent (y/y). Previously, we had this outlook in the range of 2.5 – 3.5 percent.

Global Picture

When we take a quick look at the global circumstances, then we detect a couple of trends in Q3-2021. First of all, international trade has been strong, surpassing pre-COVID-19 crisis levels. Moreover, commodity prices have been strong on the back of robust demand, with palm oil, coal, coffee, cocoa, tin, nickel, and aluminum (both on a quarter-on-quarter level and year-on-year level). As we shall see below, Indonesia posted a great export performance (being a key commodity exporter).

However, in Q3-2021 we also saw the normalization of economic growth (after most countries had recorded very sharp economic growth in the preceding quarter thanks to the low base effect; having experienced their rock bottoms in the COVID-19 crisis in Q2-2020). So, countries’ Q3-2021 growth fell sharply from their Q2-2021 growth.


Order this article (or the November 2021 report in which it is included) - by sending an email to or a message to +62.882.9875.1125 (including WhatsApp) - to read the full text. This article about Indonesia's Q3-2021 GDP discusses:

- Economic growth in Indonesia's key trading partners
- Indonesia's lackluster household consumption
- Private and public investment in Indonesia
- Impressive export performance of Indonesia
- Government consumption in Indonesia
- The sectors of the Indonesian economy that grew sharpest
- Economic growth per region across Indonesia
- Forecast for Indonesia's Q4-2021 and FY-2021 economic growth

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