Indonesian Stocks Thrive on Positive Q4-2015 GDP Growth Figure
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are having a great day on Friday (05/02). During the first trading session Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged 2.33 percent to 4,774.68 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.46 percent to IDR 13,577 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:35 pm local Jakarta time. These positive developments are caused by the country's better-than-expected Q4-2015 GDP growth result. This morning it was announced that the Indonesian economy expanded 5.04 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Although full-year economic growth of Indonesia in 2015 slowed to a six-year low of 4.79 percent year-on-year (y/y), market participants turned optimistic after seeing the data released by Statistics Indonesia this morning as GDP growth accelerated markedly in Q4-2015. The table below shows that economic growth from Q3-2015 to Q4-2015 in Indonesia (annual basis) tends to accelerate only slightly (with the notable exception of 2010 when the Indonesian economy picked up again after the global financial crisis in the late 2000s). The jump in Q4-2015 economic growth - supported by government spending and gross domestic fixed capital formation growth - can be taken as a sign that the process of economic slowdown in Indonesian has been completed and we can expect to see acceleration of Indonesia's economic growth in 2016. Given that government spending was key to boost economic growth, government fiscal spending should be more uniform throughout the year. In 2015 the government failed to achieve its spending targets in the first half of the year due to organizational matters and budget reforms.
Indonesia's Quarterly GDP Growth 2009–2015 (annual % change):
| Year | Quarter I |
Quarter II | Quarter III | Quarter IV | Full-Year |
| 2015 | 4.72 | 4.67 | 4.74 | 5.04 | 4.8 |
| 2014 | 5.14 | 5.03 | 4.92 | 5.01 | 5.0 |
| 2013 | 6.03 | 5.81 | 5.62 | 5.72 | 5.6 |
| 2012 | 6.29 | 6.36 | 6.17 | 6.11 | 6.0 |
| 2011 | 6.45 | 6.52 | 6.49 | 6.50 | 6.2 |
| 2010 | 5.99 | 6.29 | 5.81 | 6.81 | 6.4 |
| 2009 | 4.60 | 4.37 | 4.31 | 4.58 | 4.6 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated only 0.07 percent to IDR 13,653 per US dollar on Friday (05/02).
Indonesian Rupiah versus US Dollar (JISDOR):
| Source: Bank Indonesia