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Again, we were surprised by the low level of inflation in Indonesia. While usually we see rising inflationary pressures in the month of November (ahead of the peak in the December-January period), this time it was a different story.
On 17 January 2022 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the latest trade data of Indonesia. The data show that Indonesian exports remained high (near record-high territory) in December 2021, while imports into Indonesia even managed to set a new all-time record (with a huge jump in imports of raw materials and consumer goods suggesting that economic activity is strong, although this could be a temporary phenomenon in the context of Christmas and New Year festivities).
Before we delve into Indonesia’s June 2021 trade statistics, we first take a quick look at Indonesia’s full-year 2020 trade performance as Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released its annual ‘Indonesian Foreign Trade Statistics – 2020’ report in the first week of July 2021.
Last month we were still a bit pessimistic about Indonesia’s trade performance, with bleak imports into Indonesia being the main reason (while the country’s impressive export performance is nice, but essentially the result of Indonesia’s over-dependence on raw commodity prices, which is actually a structural weakness of Southeast Asia’s largest economy).
Weak demand across Indonesia, a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, persisted into the second month of 2021 with Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) showing a modest inflation rate of 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February 2021.
On 21 January 2021, Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released its long-awaited ‘Population Census 2020’. This study gives us various crucial data on the Indonesian population, including population size, age structure, and birth rate.
As we predicted last month, August 2020 brought mild deflation to Indonesia. Based on the latest data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), the consumer price index posted deflation of 0.05 percent month-on-month (m/m).
Last month we basically came to the conclusion that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a direct (short-term) positive effect on Indonesia’s trade performance (although the longer term consequences are clearly negative) as Indonesia managed to boost exports (possibly because it filled the gap left by China’s lockdown), while imports into Indonesia fell markedly (partly because of the lower need for inputs for export-oriented output), thus leading to a comfortable trade surplus.
As expected, Indonesia’s inflation rate was quite low in April 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.08 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April.
Indonesia’s February 2020 inflation accelerated slightly more than analysts had expected. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 2.98 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from 2.68 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
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According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), Indonesia posted a USD $4.37 billion trade surplus in September 2021. It is a slightly lower surplus compared to the previous month (when Indonesia posted its highest ever monthly trade surplus), but remains one of the highest surpluses in the history of Indonesia.
On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $227.1 million trade surplus in September 2018. Although it is a very small surplus, it did lead to some optimism. After all, Indonesia had recorded big monthly trade deficits of USD $2.0 billion and USD $944.2 million in July 2018 and August 2018, respectively.
Based on the latest data of Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade deficit was recorded at USD $1.02 billion in August 2018. Although improving from the USD $2.03 billion trade deficit one month earlier (which constituted Indonesia’s biggest monthly trade deficit in five years), the deficit remains robust and therefore causes persistent concerns about the country’s current account deficit and the rupiah exchange rate.
Although overshadowed by the news of the devastating earthquake in Lombok, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the official Q2-2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of Indonesia earlier today. The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2018. This growth pace exceeds our expectations although it is not enough to necessitate a revision to our full-year 2018 GDP growth forecast of 5.2 percent (y/y).
In full-year 2017 the Indonesian economy expanded 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y). Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday morning (05/02) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.19 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017. These figures show a mixed picture.
The trade surplus of Indonesia widened in September 2017 as export growth outpaced import growth. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (16/10) that the nation's trade balance showed a USD $1.76 billion surplus in September, higher than analysts' forecasts and slightly higher than the USD $1.72 billion surplus in the preceding month.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation in April 2016 on the back of controlled food prices as the harvest season has arrived. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a central bank survey shows deflation of 0.33 percent month-to-month (m/m) during the first three weeks of April. Besides lower food prices, Martowardojo also attributes April deflation to the government's decision to cut fuel prices (premium gasoline and diesel) by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter per 1 April. This move led to a 4 percent drop in public transportation tariffs.
On Monday (04/01) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the number of Indonesian people living below the poverty line stood at 28.51 million people in September 2015, or 11.13 percent of the total Indonesian population. Compared to March 2015 the number of Indonesians living below the poverty line fell by 80,000 people. However, compared to September 2014 the number rose by 78,000 people. BPS releases poverty figures twice per year covering the months March and September.
Indonesia posted a USD $1.02 billion trade surplus in September 2015, higher than analysts' estimates and up from a revised USD $328 million trade surplus recorded in the preceding month. It was the tenth consecutive monthly trade surplus for Indonesia. However, the country's September trade surplus is primarily the result of rapidly declining imports, reflecting weak investment growth and weak consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
