Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 365,240 confirmed infections, 12,617 deaths (19 October 2020)
19 October 2020 (closed)
USD/IDR (14,729) -12.00 -0.08%
EUR/IDR (17,333) +66.96 +0.39%
Jakarta Composite Index (5,126.33) +22.92 +0.45%
Last month we basically came to the conclusion that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a direct (short-term) positive effect on Indonesia’s trade performance (although the longer term consequences are clearly negative) as Indonesia managed to boost exports (possibly because it filled the gap left by China’s lockdown), while imports into Indonesia fell markedly (partly because of the lower need for inputs for export-oriented output), thus leading to a comfortable trade surplus.
This more-or-less continued into March 2020 although China started to come back online. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (or BPS), Indonesia booked a USD $743.4 million trade surplus in March 2020. As the table below shows, Indonesia’s oil & gas deficit deteriorated sharply, while the non-oil & gas surplus improved significantly. However, considering the contribution of oil & gas trade to the total is much smaller compared to non-oil & gas, Indonesia managed to post an overall surplus in March.
Indonesia’s oil & gas deficit deteriorated because of the collapse of global oil prices after demand for crude oil fell amid the COVID-19 crisis, while a price war emerged between two of the world's major oil producers: Saudi Arabia and Russia. Crude oil even went below zero as producers ran out of places to store their excess barrels of crude.
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