Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Latest Reports GDP
On Wednesday (05/08/2020) Indonesia Investments released the July 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'A Modest Rebound', we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Indonesian economy, Indonesia's automotive industry, and a range of other topics.
On Wednesday (03/06/2020) Indonesia Investments released the May 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'in the Eye of the Storm', we focus specifically on the social implications of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on Indonesian society. Hence, unemployment and poverty are two topics that deserve specific attention.
On Tuesday (05/05/2020) Indonesia Investments released the April 2020 edition of its monthly update. In this edition, titled 'Bracing for Impact', we focus on the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis - and subsequent restrictions on social behavior and business - on the Indonesian economy and Indonesian society.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released its Q1-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia on Tuesday (5 May 2020). According to the agency, the Indonesian economy expanded by 2.97 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2020. The result is well below forecasts, and considering the real impact of the coronavirus crisis (COVID-19) on the Indonesian economy is to occur in the second quarter, we expect to see a deep red number in Q2-2020 (possibly extending into the following quarter).
On Thursday (08/04/2020) Indonesia Investments released the March 2020 edition of its monthly update. In this edition, titled 'Coronavirus Panic Peaks Worldwide', we obviously focus on the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on the Indonesian economy and Indonesian society.
For the sixth straight month manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in the red zone. It therefore was a very disappointing second half of 2019. Moreover, it raises room for concern about Indonesia’s overall economic growth in 2019.
For the fifth straight month manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in the red zone, implying that the fourth – and last – quarter of 2019 is bound to be a disappointing quarter in terms of manufacturing activity (possibly becoming the weakest quarter in four years). And this is certainly not a good omen for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q4-2019.
On Thursday (5/12) Indonesia Investments released the November 2019 edition of its monthly update. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of November 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that made an impact on the Indonesian economy.
The economy of Indonesia expanded by 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2019. Although the pace was in line with expectations, it does lead to a more gloomy outlook than we had before.
In early September 2019 the World Bank released a report titled Global Economic Risks and Implications for Indonesia that paints a somewhat negative picture of Indonesia’s economic growth in the foreseeable future. The Washington-based institution noted that it expects Indonesia’s economic expansion to continue slowing up to (at least) 2022; from a realized growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018 to 4.6 percent (y/y) in 2022.
Latest Columns GDP
Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.
In 2015 Unilever Indonesia's net profit declined 1.2 percent (y/y) to IDR 5.85 trillion (approx. USD $443 million) due to weakened purchasing power of Indonesian consumers amid the economic slowdown. Last year Indonesia's GDP growth touched the six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y). This year, however, economic growth is estimated to accelerate beyond the 5.0 percent (y/y) mark. Unilever Indonesia is a leading consumer goods producer in Indonesia that is mainly focused on home & personal care products as well as foods & refreshment products. How about its performance in 2016?
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Indonesia's economic growth to rebound in 2016 on the back of improving government spending realization (specifically on infrastructure development) and the series of economic policy packages that have been unveiled by the government since September 2015. Consumers and private investors are expected to respond positively to these government efforts hence contributing to macroeconomic growth.
In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent on Thursday (17/03) at its two-day policy meeting. It is the third straight month of monetary easing in Southeast Asia's largest economy. In the preceding two months the lender of last resort had also cut borrowing costs by 0.25 percent, each month. Furthermore, the deposit and lending facility rates were also cut by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent and 7.25 percent, respectively (effective per 18 March 2016).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.
When we look at all of the activity in financial markets this year, some interesting trends have started to emerge for those looking to invest in Asia. Stock markets in Indonesia have shown strong rallies, and have started to reverse many of the multi-year declines that have been characterizing the region. This inspired a great deal of attention for Indonesia’s stock benchmarks, as it is looking increasingly likely that improvements in the underlying economic data will continue bringing in buyers for these markets.
The Indonesian economy expanded 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly beating analyst expectations and constituting the highest quarterly growth pace since Q1-2014 thus providing optimism that Indonesia's economic growth will finally be able to accelerate in 2016 after six years of economic slowdown (therefore Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged a staggering 2.85 percent on Friday). In full-year 2015 the economy of Indonesia expanded 4.79 percent (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009.
Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).
While Indonesia is currently in the middle of expanding its 4G network, the nation remains placed among the countries that have the poorest Internet penetration rate in the world. A recent World Bank report, titled 'World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends', zooms in on the economic and social impact that occurs when a relative large part of the population cannot be connected to the Internet or when the government fails to keep pace with the growth of technology.
Consumer goods producer Unilever Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading consumer goods firms, is expected to show better corporate earnings in 2016 compared to the preceding years on improving purchasing power of Indonesia's population. The company's net profit is estimated to grow by 15 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the coming two years, while its EBIT margin is expected to remain above 23 percent as higher costs of raw materials are compensated by higher selling prices.
