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Since the mid-1990s, Indonesia's crude oil production has been experiencing a significant decline, forcing the country to leave the OPEC. Problematically, regulatory and legal uncertainty have been undermining the attractiveness of the investment environment, meaning that Indonesia has become - to a significant extent - dependent on the aging oil fields that are unable to meet all domestic oil demand.
While the Philippines declared an energy crisis two weeks ago, it seems that matters in Indonesia remain under control. So far, there haven't been long queues at gas stations (to hoard fuels), while government officials repeatedly ensure that there is enough fuel available for society, although people are encouraged to cut back on fuel consumption (for example, by working-from-home once a week).
On Sunday (5 April 2026) Indonesia Investments released the March 2026 edition of its monthly report. In this report the central theme is how the Iran War impacts Indonesia's economy. An escalation in the Middle East (and specifically the high oil price) implies some major challenges for Indonesia.
On 07 November 2022 Indonesia Investments released the October 2022 edition of its monthly report. Our report presents in-depth and independent analyses of a range of economic, political and social subjects that have been in the news in the month of October 2022.
Indonesia's national crude oil output remains dominated by a select group of companies. The five biggest oil producers in Indonesia - who together account for 73.34 percent of the nation's total oil production - are Chevron Pacific Indonesia, ExxonMobil, Pertamina EP, Pertamina Hulu Mahakam, and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).
SKK Migas, the government's special taskforce for upstream oil and gas business activities in Indonesia, said direct investment in the country's upstream oil and gas sector reached USD $1.8 billion by the end of February 2018 (equivalent to around 13.84 percent of SKK Migas' full-year 2018 investment target in the country's oil and gas sector).
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise Energy Regulation No. 8/2017 on the gross split scheme. It was decided to revise this relatively new regulation after an evaluation was conducted that included input from oil and gas contractors. Deputy Energy Minister Arcandra Tahar announced the revision earlier this week.
Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignatius Jonan hopes to see oil production at the Banyu Urip Field, part of the Cepu Block in East Java, rise to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), a development that would also trigger the multiplier effect for the region, he added. The Banyu Urip Field is the key oil field in Indonesia as it accounts for about 25 percent of Indonesia's total crude oil output.
The price of coal rose at the end of trading on Wednesday (26/07) in line with strengthening crude oil prices. Coal futures (January 2018 contracts, the most-active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange), finished 0.03 percent higher at USD $73.15 per metric ton. Hence, coal extended its rise after a 1.04 percent increase on the previous trading day (25/07).
Rubber prices rose on Wednesday morning (26/07) as the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar. The price of rubber (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, or Tocom), had gained 1.04 percent, or 2.2 points, to 213.70 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:26 am local Jakarta time, after opening sideways at the level of 211.50 yen per kg. Yesterday, rubber prices climbed 1.05 percent.
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Fuel demand in Indonesia already reached 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). However, oil refining capacity only stands around 1.1 million bpd, implying that 43 percent of fuel consumption in Indonesia needs to be imported from abroad. Oil refining capacity today is roughly the same as it was 15 years ago, meaning that there has been limited progress in development of Indonesia's downstream oil industry. Without adding refining capacity, Indonesia is on track to become the world's largest fuel importer within the next decade.
Because we have received quite some questions about Indonesia's cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry, we decided to devote an article to this topic. Simply put, the oil recovery scheme that the Indonesian government applies in the upstream oil and gas industry concerns the reimbursement of exploration and production costs to oil and gas contractors. This should make oil and gas exploration in Indonesia more attractive and thus stop the two-decade long decline in the nation's oil output.
The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.
There is few interest from the private sector to participate in Indonesia's oil & gas block tenders. Besides Indonesia's unconducive investment climate (that includes weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty), low global petroleum prices have also managed to curb investors' enthusiasm. In a bid to entice private investors the Indonesian government has decided to change the concept for oil & gas tenders in 2016 from a fixed revenue split to an open bid split scheme.
Elnusa is an Indonesian company that provides services in the upstream oil & gas sector. Although the oil & gas sector has been plagued by low prices, thus curtailing corporate earnings, there is something that makes Elnusa's position strong. Recently, Elnusa purchased a seismic vessel that can be used for marine seismic surveys for oil & gas exploration. In Indonesia only a few companies have the skills and equipment for marine seismic activities (and only a few companies have a seismic vessel). Moreover, Elnusa's new vessel is a modern one that is equipped to conduct high quality surveys in deep sea.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi) emphasized that the government of Indonesia needs to boost development of renewable energy. Although Indonesia contains huge potential for renewable energy (particularly geothermal energy), the share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s total energy use currently stands at around 5 percent only, the remainder being fossil energy. By providing incentives, attractive tariffs and an easier licensing and registration process, the government can generate more investment in this sector.
Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).
Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.
The government of Indonesia plans to add new fuel refineries soon after such development has been postponed for many years. Today, Indonesia's total of oil refineries have roughly the same combined production capacity as a decade ago, indicating that limited progress has been made. In fact, domestic oil output has experienced a steady downward trend for almost two decades due to a lack of exploration and investments amid weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty.
Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.
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