Most Asian stocks are in the red zone on Wednesday (07/03) after it was reported that Gary Cohn is to resign as adviser to US President Donald Trump. Cohn, who is well-regarded in the business community and markets, opposes Trump's looming protectionist import tariffs (a 25 percent import tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum). Seeing Cohn lose the battle in the White House, markets have become more concerned about the possible outbreak of a global trade war.

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The Indonesian rupiah has been under heavy pressure over the past month amid US dollar strength ahead of the March Federal Reserve policy meeting where market participants expect to see another interest rate hike. The rupiah weakened 2.92 percent from IDR 13,402 per US dollar on 1 February 2018 to IDR 13,793 on 1 March 2018. Not only the rupiah but basically currencies have been sliding against the US dollar that touched a six-week high earlier in the week.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.53 percent to IDR 13,751 per US dollar on Wednesday (28/02), the weakest level against the greenback in slightly over two years. The weakening of the rupiah is in line with the performance of most other currencies as the US dollar is at a three-week high after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a hawkish tone in his first congressional testimony.

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Indonesia's benchmark Composite Index touched a new record high on Monday (19/02) after surging 1.48 percent to finish at 6,689.29 points, particularly on the back of surging basic industry & chemicals and property shares. The performance of Indonesian stocks was in line with the overall performance of Asian stocks today. Japan's Nikkei 225 almost surged 2 percent. Benchmark indexes in Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam also rose more than 1 percent today.

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Over the past two weeks the Indonesian rupiah depreciated significantly, passing beyond the IDR 13,600 per US dollar level. Also on Monday (12/02) rupiah weakening continued albeit very limited. By 15:25 pm local Jakarta time the currency of Indonesia had weakened 0.05 percent to IDR 13,635 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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There is major concern that Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index will continue to move deeper in red territory on Tuesday (06/02). Yesterday, on the first trading day of the week, the index had already fallen 0.59 percent to 6,589.68 points tracking Wall Street and European markets on Friday that went down amid concerns over sharply rising interest rates (with US 10-year bond yields reaching a four-year high).

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The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index of Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index - rebounded 0.46 percent to 6,605.63 points on Wednesday (31/01) after the heavy 1.57 percent drop on the preceding day when Asian stock markets were dragged down by Wall Street and rising global bond yields.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.002 percent to 6,615.33 points on Thursday (25/01), almost unchanged from Wednesday's close. The performance of stocks was quite volatile across the Asian region. While benchmark indexes in the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea rose sharply, those in Singapore, Thailand, Japan and South Korea saw steep declines. Indonesia's performance was in between the two extremes.

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Indonesia's state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) plans to issue rupiah-denominated global bonds (known as 'komodo bonds', 'nasi goreng' bonds or 'rendang' bonds) in the second quarter of 2018. PLN targets to raise up to USD $2 billion through the bond issuance. Proceeds will be used for financing its part in Indonesia's 35,000 MW power development program as well as for debt payments.

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Despite rising Asian stocks on Thursday morning (04/01), supported by higher crude oil prices, surging Japanese shares, and US Federal Reserve minutes that show policy makers agree to a "gradual approach" in terms of further monetary tightening, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is expected to remain under pressure today.

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Investors' appetite for mining and plantation stocks managed to support the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Thursday's trading day (22/05). After the recent decline of the IHSG, market participants continued to accumulate stocks that are considered cheap. Furthermore, indices on Wall Street on Wednesday were up and impacted positively on Asian indices on Thursday, thereby providing positive market sentiments for the IHSG.

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Although most Asian emerging currencies strengthened on Thursday (22/05) against the US dollar due to the preliminary HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recovering to 49.7 in May 2014 (from 48.1 one month earlier) and the Federal Reserve Minutes indicating that there will be no US interest rate hike soon, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to decline. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 11,531 per US dollar by 5pm local Jakarta time.

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Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) declined shortly after the opening on Wednesday (21/05), during the remainder of the day it went up. This is a trend which we often detect: after a sharp fall we see a rebound on the following day as investors want to take advantage of 'cheap' stocks. However, the rebound was only limited as investors prefer to wait and see for further market sentiments first. The main positive factor today were rising Asian stock indices.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.

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Similar to when the market expects the release of positive companies' corporate earnings reports, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) gained significantly at the start of today's trading day (19/05) as the market waited for the official declarations of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates that will participate in the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. The two pairs that will compete are the Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla pair and the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair.

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After a promising start of the day, the rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks lost all of their earlier gains ahead of closing on Monday day (19/05). Around 10:00 local Jakarta time, the rupiah rate appreciated more than 0.60 percent to IDR 11,346 per US dollar on speculation that Jusuf Kalla would be nominated as Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's running mate in the presidential election (9 July 2014), backed by a coalition consisting of the PDI-P, NasDem, PKB and Hanura. After the official declaration, however, the currency lost all of its earlier gains.

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The week ended well for both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 11,413 per US dollar at the end of Friday's trading day (16/05). Meanwhile, the IHSG surged 0.80 percent to finish just above the psychological level of 5,000 points. The good performance was supported by investors' positive response towards the latest political developments in Indonesia.

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The government of Indonesia will submit a new draft proposal for the 2014 Revised State Budget (APBN-P 2014) on 20 May 2014. Of the seven basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), three assumptions are proposed to be revised. These involve general economic growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, and crude oil lifting. The government felt that the assumptions need a revision as results in the first quarter of 2014 have not been up to expectation.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG - rose 0.17 percent to 4,921.39 points on Tuesday (13/05), impacted by investors' reaction to positive earnings reports of Indonesian coal miners in the first quarter of 2014. Today, foreign investors recorded net buying of IDR 64 billion (USD $5.6 million) and accounted for 31 percent of trading activity. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014 and wait for more clarity about the (vice) presidential candidates that will compete.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the April 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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