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Latest Reports COVID-19
It is positive that Indonesia’s manufacturing activity not only kept momentum going in April 2021, but even managed to gain momentum with the IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showing a reading of 54.6 points in April 2021, up from 53.2 points in the preceding month (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction).
It was already known that –just like in 2020– the Indonesian government would ban the traditional mudik this year (mudik, which is a distinctive feature of Indonesian culture, refers to the exodus of millions of city-dwellers toward their places of origin where they spend a few days to celebrate the end of the Ramadan month).
Although the overall trade balance of Indonesia in March 2021 showed the smallest surplus for the country in nine months – with a USD $1.57 billion surplus in March 2021 – this is probably something that goes unnoticed considering both the export and import performance of Indonesia were quite impressive in March 2021.
Over the past couple of months Indonesia’s export performance improved markedly on the back of stronger commodity prices. Considering Indonesia is blessed with the presence of a wide variety of commodities (involving all three types of commodities, namely: agriculture, energy, and metals), the country’s exports obviously get a major boost in times of strengthening commodity prices.
On Tuesday (6.04.21) Indonesia Investments released the March 2021 edition of its monthly report. In the report we track important developments - from the perspective of politics, the economy and social matters - that were influential last month.
For the first time since early November 2020 – which is around five months ago – the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 14,500 per US dollar level. It is a threshold that makes Indonesians a bit concerned.
Last month we were still a bit pessimistic about Indonesia’s trade performance, with bleak imports into Indonesia being the main reason (while the country’s impressive export performance is nice, but essentially the result of Indonesia’s over-dependence on raw commodity prices, which is actually a structural weakness of Southeast Asia’s largest economy).
As we have mentioned on various occasions in our updates and reports before, the year 2020 was a very tough one for airlines. The social and business restrictions that governments imposed across the world in an effort to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus took a huge toll.
Weak demand across Indonesia, a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, persisted into the second month of 2021 with Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) showing a modest inflation rate of 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February 2021.
On 5 March 2021 Indonesia Investments released its latest monthly report in which key developments are discussed that impact on the country's business and investment environments, most notably the 'positive investment list' (a derivative regulation of the Omnibus Law on Job Creation) and the establishment of Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund (which will focus on infrastructure development).
Latest Columns COVID-19
At its latest monetary policy meeting, which ended on 18 February 2021, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate), again, by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50 percent, touching a historically low level.
In mid-February 2021, Statistics Indonesia (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released its latest poverty statistics. As expected, the data show a worrying rise in poverty across Indonesia, a development that is obviously related to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Governments’ self-imposed social and business restrictions (both at home and abroad), which aim at preventing the further spread of the virus, drag down economic activity in an unprecedented way.
Last month, we started to become a bit optimistic after reading reports that COVID-19 immunization programs were taking off, both in Indonesia (per 13 January 2021) and abroad. Moreover, it was reported that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have an efficacy rate of around 95 percent.
It was a rough first month of the year for Indonesia. Obviously, the COVID-19 crisis persists (and there are signs to assume this crisis will persist throughout 2021) with the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Indonesia now having passed the one million mark.
Another year has passed, and therefore we would like to wish all of our subscribers a happy, healthy, and successful 2021! The transition to a brand new year is also typically a great occasion to look back at the year that has passed and look forward to the one that has arrived (and some may even have made a couple of New Year’s resolutions in an attempt to achieve a certain goal or change a bad habit).
In recent times, almost each year can be called a ‘political year’ for Indonesia as a big number of elections – especially at the regional level – need to be organized in this vast archipelago. Considering there are 34 provinces in Indonesia, containing 514 regents (kabupaten) and cities (kota), we see elections almost every year.
It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.
It came as a big surprise to us to learn that direct investment realization in Indonesia expanded in the third quarter of 2020, both compared to the same quarter one year earlier (Q3-2019) and compared to the preceding quarter (Q2-2020).
Through Manpower Minister Circular Letter No. M/11/HK.04/X/2020, the central government of Indonesia requests all provincial governors not to raise the minimum wages for 2021 as the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on entrepreneurs and business has been severe. The financial pressure (due to missed income) makes it tough for many entrepreneurs to survive. By not raising the minimum wages in 2021, these business-owners would get some air, which means jobs can be saved.
The month October in the year 2020 was another volatile month. At the beginning of the month (which we covered in our preceding report) the passing of the Omnibus Job Creation Law triggered a series of demonstrations that have been continuing up to the time of writing this introduction.
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