The Indonesian rupiah has been rallying impressively over the past couple of days in the "post-Brexit" era. Amid severe uncertainty ahead of the Brexit referendum result, Indonesia's currency depreciated markedly on Thursday 23 June 2016. However, in the following days the rupiah started to strengthen, touching a two-month high against the US dollar (even though the US dollar has been strong as well due to the Brexit issue). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the rupiah is now trading at IDR 13,175 per US dollar. What explains this recent rupiah strength?

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Indonesian assets are under pressure on Friday (24/06) due to the exiting of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU). After votes of yesterday's referendum were counted the so-called "Brexit"is a reality. Nearly 52 percent of the 16.1 million voters chose to depart from the EU. Shortly after the news UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced he is to step down in October. Meanwhile, global financial markets are in deep red territory as investors are in search of safe haven assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and gold.

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As voting results are being collected chances are growing that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union (the so-called "Brexit"). After results from 314 of a total of 382 UK voting districts have been collected, the leave camp leads by 3.8 percent. As a result the pound sterling is on track for its largest-ever one-day fall. Meanwhile, stock markets in Asia show deep losses, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (both tumbling more than three percent).

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Indonesian credit rating agency Pefindo (Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia) says the value of issued debt paper in Indonesia may reach IDR 90 trillion (approx. USD $6.8 billion), up 34 percent from the IDR 67 trillion worth of debt paper that was issued in Indonesia last year. Debt paper involves bonds, sukuk (Islamic bonds), and medium term notes. So far this year, Pefindo has been tasked to rate up to IDR 44.1 trillion worth of debt paper, while debt paper that has been issued up to May totaled IDR 25 trillion (approx. USD $1.9 billion).

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In line with other Asian assets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah strengthened on Monday (20/06) as falling odds of a "Brexit" boosts risk appetite. Voters in the United Kingdom will decide in a referendum on Thursday (23/06) whether or not to remain part of the European Union (EU). An exit of the UK from the EU (the so-called "Brexit") is expected to cause a major global shock and flight to safety. The latest opinion polls, however, indicate a growing chance that the UK will remain part of the UK, hence causing a sigh of relief on global markets. Meanwhile, oil prices were up on the weakening US dollar.

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It was a bad start of the new trading week. Stocks in Asia were deep in the red due to risk aversion, falling the most in four weeks amid concern about the "Brexit" referendum, uncertainty before this week's central bank meetings in the USA and Japan, falling crude oil prices, and the worst mass shooting in modern US history. Indonesia was among the affected markets; the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.84 percent to 4,807.23 on Monday (13/06), while the rupiah only depreciated slightly to IDR 13,298 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia fell USD $4.1 billion to USD $103.6 billion in May 2016 because part of the assets were used for foreign debt repayments while Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) used part to support the rupiah that had come under severe pressure in the last two weeks of May due to growing speculation about a sooner-than-expected US interest rate hike and sliding oil prices (these sentiments would reverse in the first week of June, giving rise to a strengthening rupiah).

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In line with other markets in Asia, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to rally on Tuesday (07/06) supported by the cautious words of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in a speech on Monday. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices boost the outlook for those commodity-exporting economies (including Indonesia). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.78 percent to 4,933.99 points, while the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.80 percent to IDR 13,263 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Changing perceptions about US monetary policy have a big impact on Indonesian stocks and - especially - the rupiah, today. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 1.30 percent to IDR 13,418 per US dollar by 12:55 pm local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Composite index rose 0.52 percent to 4,879.06 after the first trading session on Monday (06/06). What caused this performance? Well, the release of the weakest US jobs data since 2010.

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The Indonesian rupiah experienced a volatile day on Thursday (02/06), touching a four-month low in the morning after Indonesia failed to get investment grade status (yet) from global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P). However, at the end of the trading day the rupiah had appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 13,643 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar today amid uncertainty about an imminent Fed Funds Rate hike.

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After finishing last week with three consecutive days of gains, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) reached up to 4,633.11. However, its movement is still rather volatile. Property, finance and consumption stocks were sold by investors after seeing the benchmark interest rate raised by Bank Indonesia (by 50 bps to 6.50 percent) on Thursday (11/07), while metal stocks formed the main supporter of the index at the end of the week. Trading volume in the regular market hit 5.2 trillion and foreigners recorded net purchases of IDR 288 billion.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was able to continue its rise on Thursday (11/07) despite mixed markets in the United States and Europe, that were waiting for the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, on the previous day. The minutes and Ben Bernanke's speech indicate that the bond-buying program will be continued for a while and this made investors decide to buy Indonesian assets, particularly large cap stocks such as Unilever Indonesia, Bank Mandiri and Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa.

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Today, Bank Indonesia surprised many analysts and investors by raising its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent. Indonesia's central bank assessed that this measure is the correct one with regard to supporting the IDR rupiah (which is one of the worst Asian currencies against the US dollar this year) and to fight higher inflation after the government decided to cut fuel subsidies in June. It expects inflation to peak in July at about 2.3 percent (month to month) but to moderate soon afterwards.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.

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Higher American indices after the release of ADP employment change and lower initial jobless claims made an indirect impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) on Thursday (04/07). Investors used the positive outcomes of these data to start purchasing stocks, although in limited quantities. Foreign investors, however, are still selling more Indonesian shares than they buy, which subsequently results in limited growth of the IHSG on Thursday (04/07). The index grew 0.10 percent to 4,581.93.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) took another large blow on Wednesday (03/07). The index fell 3.20 percent to 4,577.15 points as investors were worried after reading the revised outlook of the World Bank. The institution downgraded its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 from 6.2 percent to 5.9 percent. Higher inflation, because of the recent subsidized fuel price hike, is expected to result in lower domestic consumption. The IDR rupiah posted a slight weakening to IDR 9,941.

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Weakening American and European stock indices on Tuesday (02/07), as investors mostly refrained from trading ahead of Wednesday when a number of important US economic data are released, caused negative market sentiments in Asia today (03/07). Moreover, the market responded negative towards the World Bank's July report in which the outlook for economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 was cut to 5.9 percent (from 6.2 percent). Lastly, a gap at 4,620 - 4,644 still needed to be closed.

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The World Bank has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to 5.9 percent from its original estimate of 6.2 percent. Similarly, the institution has altered its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. The revised figures were published in July's edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled 'Adjusting to Pressures'. The World Bank's forecast is also in sharp contrast with the GDP assumption of the Indonesian government, which puts economic growth in 2013 at 6.3 percent.

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Asian stock indices were up on Thursday (27/06) after economic growth of the United States in Q1-2013 was lower than expected. Paradoxically, this had a positive effect on global stock indices as speculation arose that the disappointing growth rate would convince the Federal Reserve to continue its quantitative easing program. It also had a good affect on Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG), which gained 1.92 percent and ended at 4,675.75. The index was well on its way to close a gap (at 4,743-4,801) but was blocked by mixed European openings.

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It has been a long time since we have reported a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). But finally on Wednesday (26/06) Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) made a great jump upwards, supported by American and European stock indices that were up on Tuesday (25/06) due to positive economic data from the United States. Investors used this positive context to engage in stock trading. Moreover, Indonesia's stocks are currently - technically speaking - cheap and thus attractive.

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