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19 June 2025 (closed)
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Coal imports into China are expected to recover in the last two months of the year and therefore various analysts say the coal price is able to touch beyond USD $97 per ton before the year-end. In October coal imports into China - the world's largest coal importer - had fallen by a whopping 24 percent (m/m) to 21.3 million tons due to the availability of plenty domestic coal supplies.
The rising coal price is a great boost for the corporate earnings of coal mining companies as well as the share prices of those companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Newcastle Coal Futures (January 2018 delivery) touched USD $97.10 per metric ton at the end of last week, up 26 percent so far this year. Meanwhile, prices of energy commodities are expected to rise further in the remainder of the year.
The value of Indonesia's coal exports to China during January-August 2017 reached USD $1.68 billion, up 63 percent compared to the export value of the commodity in the same period (to China) one year earlier (USD $1.03 billion) according to the Trade Attaché of the Indonesian Embassy in Beijing.
Despite the recovering coal price, actual coal production in Indonesia remained relatively low up to the third quarter in 2017. Based on data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, national coal output reached 294.5 million tons up to 31 August 2017, roughly 62 percent of the full-year target (477 million tons) that was set by the Energy Ministry.
While we have entered the last quarter of 2017, the coal price continues to climb. Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) rose 2.13 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $93.99 per metric ton in October 2017. The average HBA price so far in 2017 stands at USD $84.22 per ton, up significantly from an average of USD $61.84 per ton in full-year 2016.
Several big coal mining companies, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, saw their shares slide drastically on Wednesday (13/09) after Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan announced to be considering formulating new rules to determine the price of coal for domestic supplies. However, no time-frame was given as Jonan will first listen to input from the mining sector.
Indonesia's reference coal price surged in September 2017. Southeast Asia's largest economy's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) soared 9.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $92.03 per metric ton, from USD $83.97 in August. Indonesia's HBA is now at its highest position since December 2016.
Coal supplies in China are estimated to show a 5.8 million ton surplus in the September-October 2017 period in line with sliding coal demand in the world's second-largest economy. Therefore, coal prices should come under pressure starting from mid-August up to late October 2017. Coal demand in China will ease as local weather conditions turn normal. Meanwhile, local coal supplies are seen growing as miners want to take advantage of the higher coal price.
The coal price has gained some further momentum over the past month. Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) rose 6.36 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $83.97 per metric ton in August 2017. The average HBA price so far in 2017 stands at USD $82.02 per ton, up significantly from an average of USD $61.8 per ton in full-year 2016.
The price of coal rose at the end of trading on Wednesday (26/07) in line with strengthening crude oil prices. Coal futures (January 2018 contracts, the most-active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange), finished 0.03 percent higher at USD $73.15 per metric ton. Hence, coal extended its rise after a 1.04 percent increase on the previous trading day (25/07).
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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:
Concerns have arisen over the government's plan to increase royalties and export duties for coal. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects that this policy will lead to the closure of various coal miners while increasing acts of illegal mining. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the APBI, 60 million tons of coal per year is not listed by any authority and thus can be labeled 'illegal'. Illegal coal mining also implies that the Indonesian government misses out on about IDR 5.6 trillion (USD $495.6 million) per year.
After its one-week holiday, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) started in negative territory. The index fell 0.93 percent to 4,597.78 on Monday (12/08) with the country's miscellaneous industry sector and the consumer goods sector leading the fall. It is interesting to note that most Indonesian mining companies showed significantly rising share prices as prices of mining commodities are expected to increase. According to Morgan Stanley, coal imports to India will grow while the global coal price has already reached its lowest point.
State-owned electricity provider Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) stated that consumption of electricity in Indonesia grew 7.2 percent to 90,48 terawatt hour (twh) in the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period last year. Head of PLN's Commercial Division, Benny Marbun, explained that Indonesia's industrial sector particularly consumed more electricity. Although industrial customers of PLN only grew by 4.5 percent in Semester 1-2013 (YoY), industrial electricity consumption grew 8.3 percent (YoY).
Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.
Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.
The chairman of the Indonesia Coal Mining Association said that Indonesia's coal exports are expected to increase from 310 million tons in 2012 to 330 million tons in 2013, a 6.5 percent increase. Coal producers have been facing a tough period since July 2008 when global coal demand weakened and triggered volatile - but mostly declining - coal prices ever since. Coal demand from China and India, however, is expected to increase this year.
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