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19 June 2025 (closed)
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Concern about Indonesia's Q4-2018 current account deficit as well as the value of the rupiah exchange rate should increase now the country posted a big USD $2.05 billion monthly trade deficit in November 2018. It is the highest monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy since July 2013.
On Sunday 16 December 2018 Indonesia and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which consists of non-EU member countries Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, signed the Indonesia-EFTA Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The signing ceremony, which was held in Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta, effectively ends nearly eight years of negotiations between both sides.
While most of the focus, rightfully, remains centered on the disaster in Central Sulawesi where presumably thousands of people have lost their lives due to a big earthquake and devastating tsunami, it is worth keeping an eye on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate which is again facing heavy pressures and has now slipped beyond the psychological boundary of IDR 15,000 per US dollar.
While daily newspaper Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison will visit Jakarta on 31 August 2018 to announce the completion of the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA), Indonesian newspaper Kompas reports that Morrison will come to Jakarta for further IA-CEPA negotiations (only).
Adding more pressures onto the rupiah, Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/08) that the country's trade balance deteriorated significantly. In July 2018 Indonesia had a USD $2.03 billion trade deficit, much bigger than had been expected by analysts (and constituting the widest monthly trade deficit in the past five years). The latest deficit was particularly attributed to rapidly rising imports into Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Negotiations related to the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) have entered the final phase. Iman Pambagyo, the Trade Ministry's International Trade Negotiations Director General, said both sides are currently finalizing the agreement. He added that around 85 percent of the agreement has been completed now and the deal is expected to be fully completed before the end of 2018.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's trade balance showed a USD $1.74 billion surplus in June 2018. It was a much bigger surplus than had been estimated by analysts, primarily caused by weaker import growth than had been predicted by analysts.
After a (revised) USD $1.63 billion trade deficit in April 2018, Indonesia posted another big trade deficit in the following month. In May 2018 Indonesia's trade deficit reached USD $1.52 billion, slightly lower from the deficit in the preceding month but still constituting a wider deficit than had been expected by analysts. Despite rising exports in May, a soaring crude oil price managed to put big pressures on Indonesia's trade balance.
Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance showed a USD $1.63 billion deficit in April 2018. The deficit, which surprised most analysts' expectations, is the nation's biggest monthly trade deficit in four years (April 2014). While exports grew 9.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $14.47 billion, imports grew much more impressive - at a pace of 34.7 percent (y/y) - to USD $16.09 billion last month.
In early April 2018 the United States confirmed steep anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on Indonesian biodiesel imports. Published through the Federal Register the US imposed additional duties that range between 126.97 percent and 341.38 percent. For sure, this seriously harms the competitiveness of Indonesian biodiesel shipments to the world's top economy. If the policy is not altered, then it basically means the end of Indonesian biodiesel exports to the US market.
Latest Columns Trade
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.
Although widespread concerns about Indonesia's prolonged trade deficit (and current account deficit) are far from unfounded, the country's October 2013 trade data show a positive result. On Monday (02/12), Statistics Indonesia announced that Southeast Asia's largest economy posted a small trade surplus of USD $42.4 million in October after having recorded a trade deficit of USD $810 million in the previous month. This calender year (January to October 2013), the trade deficit has accumulated to USD $6.36 billion.
Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.
This week, a group of Dutch politicians and businessmen, led by prime minister Mark Rutte, will pay a four day visit to Indonesia. The aim of the visit is to smoothen bilateral relations and search for business opportunities between both countries. This Dutch group, which includes more than one hundred Dutch company delegates, forms the largest Dutch trade delegation that has visited Southeast Asia's biggest economy in the modern history. However, relations between the Netherlands and Indonesia are still complex today.
The economic stabilisation policies launched by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and the Indonesian government in recent months have brought a steady improvement in the country's current account balance. The current account deficit moderated from the previous quarter’s record USD $9.9 billion (equivalent to 4.4 percent of the country's GDP) to USD $8.4 billion (3.8 percent of GDP) in the third quarter of 2013. A shrinking current account deficit is highly awaited by investors. The text below is the official press release of Bank Indonesia.
Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).
Indonesia's October inflation rate was well-received by investors. On Friday (01/11), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the country's inflation in October 2013 grew 0.09 percent. Easing inflation was mainly due to falling prices of raw foods and clothes. Year-on-year (yoy), however, Indonesia's inflation is still high at 8.32 percent, although showing a moderating trend from 8.40 percent (yoy) in September 2013 and 8.79 percent (yoy) in August 2013. Inflation had skyrocketed after subsidized fuel prices were raised by an average 33 percent in June.
On 12 October 2013 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors from Korea and Indonesia agreed to establish a bilateral KRW/IDR swap arrangement in the near future. The size of the swap arrangement is up to KRW 10.7 trillion/IDR 115 trillion (equivalent to USD $10 billion). The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by agreement by both sides. This Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) aims to promote bilateral trade and further strengthen financial cooperation, an objective of mutual interest to both countries.
The World Bank has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to 5.9 percent from its original estimate of 6.2 percent. Similarly, the institution has altered its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. The revised figures were published in July's edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled 'Adjusting to Pressures'. The World Bank's forecast is also in sharp contrast with the GDP assumption of the Indonesian government, which puts economic growth in 2013 at 6.3 percent.
Indonesia and Sweden intend to increase business relations between both countries. Last month, Indonesia's president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono made a state visit to Sweden, while in 2012 Sweden prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt visited Indonesia. A number of topics were discussed during these visits, including trade and investment. After the discussions, both countries agreed that trade and investment between the countries should be expanded. Up to early 2013, 77 Swedish companies are in operation in Indonesia.
