On 21 December 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the rupiah exchange rate performance, a palm oil update, Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, an update on the tender for the Soekarno-Hatta Railway Project, and more.

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The Standard Chartered Bank expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate slightly in 2015 compared to this year’s estimated performance. The bank forecasts a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) next year, up from 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014. Standard Chartered Bank economist Eric Sugandi recently said that the Indonesian economy will be affected by two factors: the great rotation (capital outflows from emerging markets ahead of US interest rate hikes) and growth disparity (slowing growth or recession in China and Japan).

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Although many currencies weakened against the US dollar after the US Federal Reserve stated that it is on track to raise its key Fed Fund Rate "somewhere next year" amid structural improvement of the US economy (after having kept the rate near zero for a "considerable time"), Indonesia's rupiah opened strong on Thursday (18/12). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had appreciated 0.91 percent to IDR 12,553 per US dollar at 9:15 local Jakarta time.

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Troubles continued on Tuesday (16/12) for emerging markets. Currencies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific were mostly down amid a significant interest rate hike by Russia’s central bank, falling oil prices, and expected weakening of China’s manufacturing activity. Indonesian stocks were down 1.81 percent to 5,014.53 points by 11:20 am local Jakarta time, while the rupiah had depreciated 0.88 percent to 12,825 per US dollar by the same time according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated to its lowest level since August 1998 (when Indonesia was in the early recovery stage from the Asian Financial Crisis). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 1.78 percent to IDR 12,689 per US dollar by 12:50 pm local Jakarta time on Monday (15/12). This weak performance is caused by bullish momentum of the US dollar (amid the improving US economy) in combination with local year-end US dollar demand for debt repayments.

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The central bank of Indonesia projects non-performing loans (NPL) to rise to 2.4 percent of the country’s total outstanding loans by the end of the year, significantly up from 1.8 percent at the end of last year. Despite the acceleration of bad loans in Indonesia, the institution stated that it is still manageable. Meanwhile, loan growth in Indonesia is estimated to slow to 11 or 12 percent (y/y) by the end of 2014 (the slowest pace since 2010), down from 21.4 percent (y/y) in 2013 primarily due to the central bank’s monetary tightening policy.

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The central bank of Indonesia announced that the country’s foreign exchange reserves declined USD $900 million to USD $111.1 billion at the end of November 2014. The decline was primarily due to government debt repayments and the central bank’s use of foreign exchange to engage in monetary management. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate - which had touched six year lows in recent days - appreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 12,299 per US dollar on Friday (05/12) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.24 percent to IDR 12,301 per US dollar on Wednesday (03/12), the weakest level of Indonesia’s currency in almost six years, as the US dollar rallied, pushing Japan’s yen to a seven-year low, Malaysia’s ringgit to a five-year low, while the Russian ruble experienced record falls. Meanwhile, the euro touched a two-year low amid the sluggish economic growth forecast in the Eurozone. Policies of central banks across the globe have led to significant currency volatility.

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The Indonesian government has mandated Citigroup, HSBC and the Standard Chartered Bank to arrange the issuance of US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds in January 2015. The government also considers to issue euro-denominated bonds next year. Previously it had been reported that the Indonesian government plans to issue samurai bonds and global sukuk (Islamic bonds) in the first quarter of 2015 (as this is considered a relatively stable period) before the US Federal Reserve hikes its key interest rate.

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The balance of payments (BoP) of Indonesia, the widest measure of Indonesia’s financial balance with the rest of the world (encompassing all transactions between the country’s residents and non-residents involving goods, services and income), hit a surplus of USD $6.5 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up from the USD $4.3 billion surplus in the previous quarter. The surplus of USD $13.7 billion in the Q3-2014 financial and capital account offset the USD $6.84 billion current account deficit.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.

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Amid political uncertainty and a looming increase in US interest rates, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate weakened considerably in the past week. Market participants are increasingly concerned about the situation in Indonesia’s parliament where a majority of political parties - named the Merah-Putih coalition (led by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto) - is expected to undermine president-elect Joko Widodo’s reform programs as well as the democratic foundations of the country.

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US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reminded global investors to prepare for a sooner-than-expected US interest rate hike (Fed Funds Rate, FFR) provided that the economy of the USA - the world’s largest economy - continues its improving trend. In fact, speculation has emerged that the FFR will be raised before the end of 2014 although Yellen stated more than once that the ‘close-to-zero’ interest rate environment would be maintained for a considerable period after the US bond-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended.

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In line with the trend on other Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell on Monday (22/09) amid profit taking after three days of gains. Not even the appreciating rupiah exchange rate and net buying of foreign investors (IDR 26.6 billion) were able to push Indonesia’s index into the green zone. The IHSG declined 0.15 percent to 5,219.80 points. All sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) fell except for the consumer goods and finance sectors.

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Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy is estimated to have a large influence on investors’ confidence in the financial or fiscal fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy and thus on the performance of the local stock index and currency. New president elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is expected to raise prices of subsidized fuels after taking office in late October 2014 in an attempt to combat the country’s wide current account deficit (mainly caused by expensive oil imports to meet domestic fuel demand).

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) closed 1.12 percent higher on Wednesday (17/09) supported by Tuesday’s positive stock indices on Wall Street as well as speculation that the US Federal Reserve will not raise its key interest rate yet. Today (17/09), the Federal Reserve will conclude its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Lastly, after weak economic data, it was reported that China’s central bank (PBOC) injected USD $82 billion into the country's five largest banks.

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Stock markets in the Asia Pacific were down on Tuesday (16/09) as investors are awaiting the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today (Wednesday 17/09) and are focused on the condition of the Chinese economy. Moreover, investors were disappointed to hear that next Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will appoint 16 party politicians to lead ministries in his cabinet (which is in contrast with his initial plan to appoint technocrats). Lastly, the Indonesian rupiah exchange continued to depreciate.

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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) wrote in its most recent report that emerging economies, which includes Indonesia, are highly vulnerable to severe capital outflows as investments from the West have been highly speculative and can be quickly pulled out from emerging markets. Even when only a light shock occurs, capital outflows will be significant as international investors have been showing ‘herd behaviour’. This behavior can rock the financial fundamentals of emerging markets and leave these countries shattered.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 11,714 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (25/08) as the positive market sentiments that were caused by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court that rejected Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the 2014 presidential election was invalid due to massive fraud, eased. Market participants were again looking at the domestic economic condition as well as international developments that are considered to impact on the performance of Indonesia’s currency.

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