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The World Bank released the December 2017 edition of its flagship publication "Indonesia Economic Quarterly" on Thursday (14/12). This latest edition, which is titled "Decentralization that delivers", paints a positive picture about Indonesia's economic growth and financial system stability for the year 2018 and beyond.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released several preliminary statements related to the latest visit of a IMF team, led by Luis E. Breuer, to Indonesia (the visit took place between 1 - 14 November 2017). Overall, the team sees the continuation of good economic growth in Indonesia, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies, improved global GDP growth and rising commodity prices, as well as sustained efforts to strengthen the nation's competitiveness.
Although, overall, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2017 was slightly disappointing at a pace of 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y), investment, export and government consumption all strengthened. Hence, the main reason why Indonesia's Q3-2017 GDP growth was below expectations is sliding growth of household consumption.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today (06/11) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2017. Like in the preceding two quarters, this latest figure is (slightly) below analysts' estimates. On average, analysts had expected growth in the range of 5.10 - 5.20 percent (y/y) in Q3-2017.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth in 2018 can exceed the government target of 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) as set in the 2018 State Budget, which was approved by Indonesian parliament last week. Her optimism is based on an expected pickup in investment and exports next year.
Lana Soelistianingsih, economist at Samuel Aset Manajemen, said it will be very difficult for Indonesian authorities to achieve its 11.5 percent tax-to-GDP ratio target in 2017 despite the positive impact of the government's recently completed tax amnesty program.
Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to accelerate modestly in the remainder of the year after having recorded slightly disappointing 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth in both the first and second quarter of 2017.
Assurance, tax and consulting services company PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) mentioned Indonesia among the 21 nations that have the fastest-growing economies and will be among the world's biggest economies by 2030. On this list Indonesia is ranked fifth with an expected gross domestic product (GDP) of USD $5.42 trillion in 2030.
In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati informed that it will be tough to achieve the 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) economic growth target as set in the government's Revised 2017 State Budget. In the first two quarters of the year Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) only expanded 5.01 percent (y/y) in each quarter.
After macroeconomic growth was rather disappointing at 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2017, the Indonesian government will soon release a new economic policy package, specifically aimed at boosting investment in Indonesia. However, Indonesia's business world urge the government to first evaluate the effectiveness of preceding policy packages before implementing a new deregulation package. Moreover, some say it would be better to focus on improving confidence among consumers.
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The key story in March 2026 is obviously the Iran War that broke out after a United States (US)-Israeli coalition attacked various strategic assets in Iran starting on 28 February 2026, thus causing another (possibly long-term) geopolitical conflict after the Russo-Ukrainian War (2022-present) and Israel-Hamas War (2023-present).
In line with expectations, the economic growth rate of Indonesia was recorded at the level of 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2025. This is a good result as it slightly exceeded analyst expectations (in our case, we had projected a 5 percent y/y growth rate), and was also a faster growth pace than the one recorded by Indonesia in the same quarter one year earlier (4.95 percent y/y).
In another article in this report we discuss the remarkable discrepancy between the strong (official) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.12 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q2-2025 and Indonesia’s somewhat lackluster macroeconomic data in that same quarter. This discrepancy not only surprised many, but it also made many a bit suspicious about the accuracy of the Q2-2025 GDP data that were released by the Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS).
Those who follow our reports might be aware that we’ve been unable to obtain data regarding the foreign visitor arrivals into Indonesia since the start of 2025. The main problem seems to be that the publication of foreign tourism-related data has moved from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) to the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. But, unfortunately, this ministry hasn’t released any data (related to foreign visitors in 2025) on its website (yet).
The economic growth rate of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1-2025) came in slightly below our projection of 4.9 – 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y). But, indeed, we had already detected a (general) weakening in internal and external conditions, which was reflected in the macroeconomic data of Indonesia that we discussed in our April 2025 report. And so, it was certainly not a shock.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was slightly better than we had anticipated. Just prior to the release of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data on 5 February 2025 (by Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), we revised our outlook for Indonesia’s Q4-2024 economic growth from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to the range of 4.9–5.0 percent (y/y) due to a number of weaker-than-estimated macroeconomic data.
We are gradually approaching the first 100 days in office of the new administration in Indonesia (under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto). Does that show in the latest economic indicators?
As usual, we devote one article to the latest available (key) macroeconomic data in an effort to assess the state of the Indonesian economy. In the previous article in this month’s report, we discussed the 4.95 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate of Indonesia in Q3-2024. In the article you are reading right now, we’re going to take a closer look whether the country’s economic growth can accelerate (or decelerate) in the last quarter of the year.
On Friday (06 December 2024), Indonesia Investments released the November 2024 edition of its monthly report. It zooms in on the most relevant economic, social and political developments that occured in Indonesia in the month of November 2024.
Before we zoom in on Indonesia, it is worth taking a closer look at the latest reports released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook (released in October 2024), the IMF stated that global economic growth is expected to remain stable, yet underwhelming, at 3.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024.
