Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects the Indonesian economy to grow between 6.3 and 6.8 percent in 2013, supported by strong domestic consumption and foreign investment, with inflation rising by about 4.5 percent. Indonesian exports are expected to increase due to better global demand for Indonesia's commodities such as coal and palm oil, with commodity prices rising accordingly. But some problems in Indonesia's financial system remain to be solved.

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Although Indonesia's January cement sales showed robust growth of 15 percent to 4.65 million metric tons (year-on-year), the country's cement sales in February slowed to 8.2 percent (4.39 million metric tons) compared to a year earlier; The slowest pace of growth in six months. Strong annual GDP growth has caused a rise in property and infrastructure projects but a delay in some government projects might be behind the slower cement sales growth in February.

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Global financial services company UBS has revised up Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) number as it expects the country to benefit from increased exports to the United States. The Switzerland-based company predicts that Indonesia's economy will grow by 6.3 percent, instead of the previous estimate of 6.0 percent. Recently improved economic growth in the USA is cited as the engine of growth for Indonesian exports later this year.

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In line with expectations, the economic growth rate of Indonesia was recorded at the level of 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2025. This is a good result as it slightly exceeded analyst expectations (in our case, we had projected a 5 percent y/y growth rate), and was also a faster growth pace than the one recorded by Indonesia in the same quarter one year earlier (4.95 percent y/y).

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In another article in this report we discuss the remarkable discrepancy between the strong (official) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.12 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q2-2025 and Indonesia’s somewhat lackluster macroeconomic data in that same quarter. This discrepancy not only surprised many, but it also made many a bit suspicious about the accuracy of the Q2-2025 GDP data that were released by the Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS).

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Those who follow our reports might be aware that we’ve been unable to obtain data regarding the foreign visitor arrivals into Indonesia since the start of 2025. The main problem seems to be that the publication of foreign tourism-related data has moved from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) to the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. But, unfortunately, this ministry hasn’t released any data (related to foreign visitors in 2025) on its website (yet).

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The economic growth rate of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1-2025) came in slightly below our projection of 4.9 – 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y). But, indeed, we had already detected a (general) weakening in internal and external conditions, which was reflected in the macroeconomic data of Indonesia that we discussed in our April 2025 report. And so, it was certainly not a shock.

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Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was slightly better than we had anticipated. Just prior to the release of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data on 5 February 2025 (by Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), we revised our outlook for Indonesia’s Q4-2024 economic growth from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to the range of 4.9–5.0 percent (y/y) due to a number of weaker-than-estimated macroeconomic data.

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We are gradually approaching the first 100 days in office of the new administration in Indonesia (under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto). Does that show in the latest economic indicators?

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As usual, we devote one article to the latest available (key) macroeconomic data in an effort to assess the state of the Indonesian economy. In the previous article in this month’s report, we discussed the 4.95 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate of Indonesia in Q3-2024. In the article you are reading right now, we’re going to take a closer look whether the country’s economic growth can accelerate (or decelerate) in the last quarter of the year.

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On Friday (06 December 2024), Indonesia Investments released the November 2024 edition of its monthly report. It zooms in on the most relevant economic, social and political developments that occured in Indonesia in the month of November 2024.

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Before we zoom in on Indonesia, it is worth taking a closer look at the latest reports released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook (released in October 2024), the IMF stated that global economic growth is expected to remain stable, yet underwhelming, at 3.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024.

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As usual, we look at the latest available macroeconomic data of Indonesia to assess the strength of the national economy. Those who follow this monthly article should know that we are quite optimistic about the Indonesian economy as the majority of data are showing positive trends.

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