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Indonesia posted a USD $21.74 billion trade surplus in full-year 2020. This is a great recovery from the USD $3.59 billion trade deficit the country saw one year earlier.
Ever since the very start of the global COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, Indonesia has been recording a series of big trade surpluses each month. On the one hand, it is a welcome surprise as big monthly trade surpluses relieve pressures on Indonesia’s current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
On 4 December 2020 Indonesia Investments released its November 2020 report. This report zooms in the US presidential election, and specifically the impact it may have on Indonesia-US relations. Other important topics that are analyzed in the report include the extension of Indonesia's status as a beneficiary country in the US GSP facility, the signing of the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Indonesia's Q3-2020 economic growth.
On Sunday 15 November 2020, a total of 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in a digital meeting, thereby effectively establishing the world’s biggest trading bloc.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), which were released on 16 November 2020, Indonesia recorded an impressive USD $3.61 billion trade surplus in October 2020. The surplus is at a level we had not seen since the final stages of the 2000s commodities boom (late-2011 to be exact).
Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus in May 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a trade surplus worth USD $2.09 billion in May 2020, one of the highest monthly surpluses in recent years. But is it reason to become excited?
After two months of trade surpluses in February and March 2020, Indonesia’s trade balance swung back to a deficit in the following month. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia experienced a USD $344.7 million trade deficit in April 2020.
Last month we basically came to the conclusion that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a direct (short-term) positive effect on Indonesia’s trade performance (although the longer term consequences are clearly negative) as Indonesia managed to boost exports (possibly because it filled the gap left by China’s lockdown), while imports into Indonesia fell markedly (partly because of the lower need for inputs for export-oriented output), thus leading to a comfortable trade surplus.
Amid the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, Indonesia managed to post a strong trade surplus in February 2020. Based on the latest data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $2.33 trade surplus. It was the largest monthly trade surplus for Southeast Asia’s largest economy since September 2011.
The trade balance of Indonesia showed a relatively small deficit in the last month of 2019. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $28.2 million trade deficit was recorded in December 2019, much smaller than analysts had predicted.
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Since his return into the White House, US President Donald Trump has made a series of decisions and expressed a number of threats that have the potential for disrupting Indonesia’s trade performance, and thus undermining Indonesia’s economic growth.
There is a major difference between US President Donald Trump’s first term in office (in 2017-2021) and his second term in office (that started in January 2025). And, it is a difference that is felt (quite heavily) across the globe.
US President Donald Trump's recent tariffs have affected markets beyond the Americas. The ripple effects of the US tariffs have brought fresh trading opportunities and new challenges to mixed economies like Indonesia and the Southeast Asian market. As Southeast Asia's largest economy, Indonesia is at the forefront of foreign policies that impact international trade.
This month, our report is completed at a time when Indonesian society is celebrating Idul Fitri, the festivities that mark the end of the holy Ramadan month (the fasting month for Muslims). In fact, the holiday period started on 21 March 2025 for school-children, while society as a whole has an official national holiday from 28 March to 7 April 2025.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade balance showed a surplus of USD $4.42 billion in November 2024. It was the second-biggest trade surplus so far in 2024 (after March), with one more month to go.
Last month we warned that Indonesia’s trade performance could easily continue to contract in February 2023, thereby continuing the trend we have seen since August 2022. Moreover, February is a short month, and therefore it typically has trouble to compete with other months in terms of trade activity.
On 06 February 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released the latest official gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia. The data were in line with expectations.
In the second half of September 2022 the Indonesian rupiah experienced some steep depreciating pressures, nearly touching IDR 15,300 per US dollar. It prompted Bank Indonesia to step and intervene in markets to limit the currency’s decline; a step that typically leads to a drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.
In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.
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