On 23 November 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the country’s higher subsidized fuel prices, the central bank’s key interest rate, a revised inflation outlook, geothermal power development, external debt, and more.

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According to the central bank of Indonesia, inflation may reach around 8 percent (year-on-year) by the end of 2014 as a result of the higher subsidized fuel prices. In the early hours of Tuesday (18/11), subsidized fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) were raised by more than 30 percent in an attempt to reallocate government funds to more productive sectors as well as to curb the country’s wide current account deficit. Peaks in Indonesia’s inflation usually correlate with administered price adjustments.

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A total of 29 Indonesian provinces have already confirmed their new provincial minimum wages for the year 2015. Overall (excluding the four remaining provinces), the average Indonesian minimum wage rises 12.77 percent (y/y) in 2015. Although this growth is considerable, it is smaller than Indonesia’s minimum wage growth in 2014 (19.10 percent y/y). The highest minimum wage growth occurred in the province of Bangka Belitung (28 percent), while the lowest wage increase was in Riau (0.58 percent).

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International credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service is positive about the subsidized fuel price hike that was conducted by the government of Indonesia on Monday (17/11) as it shows commitment of the government to implement reforms that support the strengthening of the economy, such as curbing Indonesia’s fiscal and current account deficits. Moody’s estimates that these developments are positive for the country’s sovereign rating (now at Baa3/stable) as well as for state-owned energy firm Pertamina (Baa3/stable).

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Main news headlines in Indonesia still cover the higher subsidized fuel prices implemented starting from the early hours of Tuesday (18/11). The previous evening, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had announced that prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel were to be raised by over 30 percent, immediately leading to long queues at local gas stations as well as public outcry as people’s purchasing power will diminish. Analysts and economists, however, agree that this move is correct and can lead to structurally higher GDP growth.

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The central bank of Indonesia decided to raise its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points from 7.50 percent to 7.75 percent on Tuesday (18/11) in a response to the subsidized fuel price hike. One day earlier, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had announced that prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel were to be raised by more than 30 percent starting from midnight in an effort to create more fiscal space for economic and social development. This move is expected to result in accelerated inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced yesterday evening (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels will be raised by over 30 percent starting from midnight in an effort to reduce state expenses on non-productive matters. Low-octane gasoline (premium) will now cost IDR 8,500 (USD $0.70) per liter, while diesel now costs IDR 7,500 (USD $0.62) per liter. This sudden announcement immediately led to long queues at local gas stations as people still had three hours to enjoy cheaper fuel rates.

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After weeks of uncertainty, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced on Monday (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) are to be raised by IDR 2,000 (USD $0.16) per liter starting from midnight. Gasoline (premium) is to be raised from IDR 6,500 to IDR 8,500 per liter, while diesel will be raised from IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500 per liter. Earlier it was speculated that an IDR 3,000 per liter price hike would be announced. However, as global oil prices have declined sharply, this was considered an unnecessary burden for the people.

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After speculation started to rise that Indonesia would perhaps not raise prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) in November as recent declining global oil prices have managed to somewhat relieve the government’s budget deficit, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said over the weekend that the Indonesian government is still eager to raise these prices within a couple of weeks. However, he added that the price hike will be less than IDR 3,000 (USD $0.25) per liter.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced today (after the Board of Governors’ meeting) that it keeps the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. The lending facility rate and the deposit rate are maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, said that interest rates were maintained as the country’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.07 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014.

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Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will not lower its key interest rate (BI rate) until accelerated inflation (brought on by the looming subsidized fuel price hike at the end of the year) has eased and US interest rates are stable (the US Federal Reserve may raise its key interest rate in the second or third quarter of 2015). This implies that the relatively high interest rate environment in Indonesia (the key BI rate has been at 7.50 percent for almost a year) will continue (to safeguard financial stability) at the expense of higher economic growth.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for the tenth consecutive month as inflation is under control and well within the year-end target of the central bank (3.5-5.5 percent). The lending facility and deposit facility were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively, at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s Meeting (11/09). The central bank also expects that the current interest rate environment is capable of curbing the country’s wide current account deficit.

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The government of Indonesia agreed with the House Budget Committee to adjust the economic growth target of Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2015 to 5.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point up from the initial growth target proposed by the government in the Financial Memorandum as well as the 2015 State Budget Draft (APBN). Still, the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target constitutes the lowest growth target set in Indonesia’s state budget (excluding revised state budgets) since the year 2010.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) ended at a record high on Wednesday (03/09) as market sentiments were positive after the Indonesian government raised USD $1.5 billion from 10-year dollar-denominated Islamic bonds (known as sukuk) on Tuesday (02/09). Foreign investors submitted USD $10 billion worth of bids, six times the amount offered, showing that they are confident about the country’s current and future economic prospects.

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Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.

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Contrary to the positive performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia on Monday’s trading day (01/09) and despite positive domestic economic data released by Statistics Indonesia, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 11,716 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (01/09). The main reason for the currency’s depreciation is the strengthening US dollar as US economic data are improving and inflation is slowing in the Eurozone.

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In the past days, Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy has been in the spotlight of Indonesian media continuously. When it was reported that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and newly elected president Joko Widodo would meet on the island of Bali this week to discuss various transitional matters, speculation emerged that the country’s generous fuel subsidies, which seriously burden the government’s budget as well as current account, might be wound down before the new government is inaugurated in October 2014.

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