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Today's Headlines Budget Deficit

  • Fiscal Update Indonesia: Budget Deficit at 2.57% of GDP (Unaudited)

    Fiscal Update Indonesia: Budget Deficit at 2.57% of GDP (Unaudited)

    At a news conference on Tuesday (02/01), Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Indonesia's unaudited budget deficit reached 2.57 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017, slightly below expectations at 2.60 percent of GDP, and well below the government's 2.92 percent (revised) target. In 2016 the government budget deficit was recorded at 2.49 percent of GDP.

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  • Government Proposes to Revise Indonesia's 2017 Budget Deficit

    Government Proposes to Revise Indonesia's 2017 Budget Deficit

    The Indonesian government proposes to revise the budget deficit in the 2017 State Budget as it eyes an increase in spending but a cut in revenue (less-than-expected tax income) in the remainder of the year. On Thursday (06/07) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati handed the proposal to Commission XI of Indonesian parliament. The Finance Ministry now sees the shortfall rising to IDR 36.16 trillion (approx. USD $2.7 billion) in the 2017 budget.

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  • Macroeconomic Update Indonesia: Rupiah, GDP & Budget Deficit

    Macroeconomic Update Indonesia: Rupiah, GDP & Budget Deficit

    Agus Martowardojo, the governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), provided some new forecasts with regard to Indonesia's economic growth and rupiah. On Tuesday (06/06) Martowardojo told at a parliamentary hearing that he expects the rupiah to depreciate modestly in 2018, while economic growth should accelerate. Meanwhile, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Indonesia's state budget deficit is estimated to widen slightly more-than-expected in 2017.

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  • Indonesia's 2017 Budget Deficit & Debt-to-GDP Ratio Considered Safe

    Indonesia's 2017 Budget Deficit & Debt-to-GDP Ratio Considered Safe

    The government of Indonesia says the budget deficit (set in the state budget) and debt ratio are safe. In Indonesia's 2017 State Budget the government targets a 2.41 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) budget deficit (below the legal limit of 3 percent of GDP as stipulated by Law No. 17/2003). Meanwhile, Indonesia debt-to-GDP ratio was 28 percent at end-2016, a very comfortable ratio (for comparison, Japan's debt ratio exceeds 200 percent of GDP).

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  • Budget Deficit Indonesia Expected to Widen to 2.7% of GDP in 2016

    Budget Deficit Indonesia Expected to Widen to 2.7% of GDP in 2016

    The government of Indonesia may again revise the budget deficit target in the Revised 2016 State Budget (APBN-P 2016). Due to the widening shortfall (primarily caused by weaker than estimated tax revenue collection), the Indonesian government now expects the budget deficit to reach 2.7 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), up 0.2 percentage points from the target that was set previously. The new figure is close to the legal cap of 3.0 percent of GDP stipulated by Indonesian law (a law that was implemented to safeguard the nation's fiscal fundamentals).

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  • Fiscal Update Indonesia: Can the 3% of GDP Budget Deficit Cap Be Widened?

    Fiscal Update Indonesia: Can the 3% of GDP Budget Deficit Cap Be Widened?

    A commission in Indonesia's House of Representatives advises the government to replace a law that sets a maximum budget deficit limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product. This law was implemented in 2003 after Indonesia experienced the devastating effects of the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. Traumatic experiences made the government decide to prioritize prudent fiscal policies. Although it is unclear what the exact consequences are if the government would breach this cap (perhaps an impeachment bid could be launched), governments always respected the cap.

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  • Fiscal Credibility Indonesia Supported by Tax Amnesty Program

    Fiscal Credibility Indonesia Supported by Tax Amnesty Program

    Foreign investors have increased holdings of government bonds by IDR 96.45 trillion (approx. USD $7.4 billion) between the start of 2016 and Wednesday 20 July 2016. In total, foreigners now hold IDR 654.97 trillion (approx. USD $50 billion) worth of Indonesia's government bonds. This reflects strong investor appetite for (relatively) safer state assets amid economic uncertainties related to looming monetary tightening in the USA, the Brexit issue and sluggish global economic growth, but it also shows that foreign investors have confidence in Indonesia's fiscal fundamentals.

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  • Volatile Day at the Office for the Indonesian Rupiah

    Volatile Day at the Office for the Indonesian Rupiah

    The Indonesian rupiah experienced a volatile day on Thursday (02/06), touching a four-month low in the morning after Indonesia failed to get investment grade status (yet) from global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P). However, at the end of the trading day the rupiah had appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 13,643 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar today amid uncertainty about an imminent Fed Funds Rate hike.

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  • S&P Keeps Indonesia's Sovereign Rating One Notch Below Investment Grade

    S&P Keeps Indonesia's Sovereign Rating One Notch Below Investment Grade

    Contrary to expectations, Standard & Poor's (S&P), the most conservative among the world's top three credit rating agencies, maintained Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+ with a positive outlook. The BB+ rating is the highest junk level, one notch below investment grade. S&P left the door open for a future upgrade but the Indonesian government will need to enhance its fiscal performance. Issues that block an upgrade are rising budget deficits in the years ahead and the decline in Indonesia's corporate credit quality.

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  • Taking a Look into Indonesia's Public Debt to GDP Ratio

    Taking a Look into Indonesia's Public Debt to GDP Ratio

    Indonesia's public debt - as a percentage of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) - currently stands at 27 percent, or roughly IDR 3,200 trillion (approx. USD $241 billion). This debt is manageable and actually quite low compared to other key emerging economies or advanced economies. For example, Malaysia's and Brazil's public debt-to-GDP ratios reached 56 percent and 70 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the ratios of the USA and Japan stand at 105 percent and 246 percent, respectively. However, the level of debt is not that important. The important question is how is this debt used?

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Latest Columns Budget Deficit

  • Despite Deviations Indonesia Won't Revise the 2018 State Budget

    Despite Deviations Indonesia Won't Revise the 2018 State Budget

    The Indonesian government decided not to revise its 2018 State Budget despite the fact that a couple of assumptions in the budget - such as the rupiah exchange rate or the oil price - differ markedly from the actual (real) level in the first half of 2018. After a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told reporters that President Joko Widodo will not adjust these assumptions due to a number of considerations.

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  • Weak Tax Revenue Indonesia in 1H-2016, Spotlight on Tax Amnesty

    Weak Tax Revenue Indonesia in 1H-2016, Spotlight on Tax Amnesty

    Indonesia's tax revenue realization in the first half of 2016 was disappointing. According to the latest data, Southeast Asia's largest economy collected a total of IDR 518.4 trillion (approx. USD $39.6 billion) worth of tax revenue (including customs and excise) in the first six months of 2016, down 3.3 percent (y/y) from tax revenue realization in the same period one year earlier, and only 33.7 percent of total targeted tax revenue (IDR 1,539.2 trillion) set in the revised 2016 State Budget. The disappointing performance is mainly due to weak tax income from the oil and gas sector.

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  • Indonesia's House Passes Tax Amnesty Bill & Revised State Budget

    In a plenary session on Tuesday (28/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) passed the controversial Tax Amnesty Bill into law as well as the revised 2016 state budget. The Indonesian government will be relieved to see the Tax Amnesty Bill come into effect on 1 July 2016 (ending in May 2017) as it expects the bill to boost tax revenue this year by IDR 165 trillion (approx. USD $12.4 billion). Through tax incentives and the pardoning of tax crimes, the tax amnesty program makes it attractive for tax evaders to declare their offshore assets and repatriate these into Indonesia.

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  • Bond Market Indonesia: Euro Bonds Sales a Success, Samurai Bonds Next

    Bond Market Indonesia: Euro Bonds Sales a Success, Samurai Bonds Next

    The Indonesian government sold €3 billion worth of euro-denominated bonds (Surat Utang Negara, or SUN) on Tuesday (07/06) consisting of €1.5 billion of 7-year tenure bonds with a yield of 2.772 percent and €1.5 billion of 12-year tenure bonds with a yield of 3.906 percent. Combined, the issuance was oversubscribed 1.79 times with a total book order for the dual-trance bonds at €8.36 billion. Robert Pakpahan, Director General of Financing and Risk Management at Indonesia's Finance Ministry, said funds will be used to finance the 2016 budget deficit, which is expected to widen to 2.48 percent of GDP.

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  • Reforming Indonesia's Tax System is Key to Unlock S&P's Investment Grade

    Reforming Indonesia's Tax System is Key to Unlock S&P's Investment Grade

    In the past two weeks, two of the big international credit rating agencies released new reports about Indonesia's fiscal situation. Both agencies affirmed Indonesia's sovereign debt rating: Fitch Ratings kept Indonesia at BBB-/stable (investment grade class) and Standard & Poor's (S&P) maintained Indonesia at BB+/positive (highest junk level, one notch below investment grade). S&P's decision to keep Indonesia within the junk level category was met with disappointment among investors and Indonesian government officials but perhaps not that surprisingly.

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  • Government Revenue Collection Indonesia at 23% of 2016 Target in Early May

    Government Revenue Collection Indonesia at 23% of 2016 Target in Early May

    So far this year, realization of government revenue in Indonesia (up to 8 May 2016) has reached IDR 419.2 trillion (approx. USD $32 billion), roughly 23 percent of the full-year revenue target in 2016 (IDR 1,822.5 trillion). This result is weaker compared to last year when the government collected IDR 476.3 trillion in the period 1 January - 15 May 2015, or 27 percent of the full-year target. Meanwhile, government spending reached IDR 586.8 trillion between 1 January and 8 May 2016, or 28 percent of the full-year target (IDR 2,095.7 trillion), roughly the same as government spending during the same period last year.

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  • Indonesian Stocks & Rupiah End Week on a Positive Note

    Indonesian Stocks & Rupiah End Week on a Positive Note

    The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks gained on the last trading day of the week in line with the performance of other emerging markets. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHGS) rose 0.09 percent to 5,216.67 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,647 according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The positive performance was mainly caused by speculation that the unexpected fall in US wages will keep the US central bank from raising its key interest rate soon.

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  • Indonesia’s House Approves 2015 State Budget; Budget Deficit 2.21% of GDP

    Indonesia’s House Approves 2015 State Budget; Budget Deficit 2.21% of GDP

    Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) approved the 2015 State Budget on Monday (29/09) that was proposed by the outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono administration. The budget deficit is now set at IDR 245.9 trillion (USD $20.5 billion), equivalent to 2.21 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and lower than the 2.32 percent of GDP proposed by the government in both the Financial Memorandum and the Revised 2015 State Budget. However, the accepted budget deficit is still high compared to previous years.

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  • Indonesia Rupiah Exchange Rate Update: Continued Depreciation

    Indonesia Rupiah Exchange Rate Update: Continued Depreciation

    The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,992 per US dollar on Monday (23/06) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, thus extending the currency’s recent depreciating trend. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (known as the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, or, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 11,971 against the greenback. What were the factors that influenced the rupiah’s performance today?

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  • Government and Parliament Agree on Indonesian Revised 2014 State Budget

    Government and Parliament Agree on Indonesian Revised 2014 State Budget

    In a plenary session of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) on Wednesday evening (18/06), the parliament approved the government’s proposed revised state budget of 2014 (RAPBN-P 2014). Prior to this approval, the revision had already been discussed for a month between the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) and the government. Almost all components of the 2014 State Budget have been revised from the government’s earlier assumptions.

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