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Today's Headlines Idul Fitri

  • Manufacturing Activity Indonesia to Tap the Ramadan Momentum?

    Manufacturing Activity Indonesia to Tap the Ramadan Momentum?

    Indonesia's Industry Ministry is optimistic that the nation's manufacturing activity will improve in the second quarter of 2017, primarily supported by rising production in Indonesia's automotive and food & beverage sectors amid the Ramadan month and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations. This period always triggers a peak in consumption due to the many food parties (especially in the evening). Moreover, car and motorcycle sales tend to rise ahead of the Idul Fitri period when millions of Indonesians travel back to their places of origin to spend a few days with their families.

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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: $598 Million Surplus in July 2016

    Trade Balance Indonesia: $598 Million Surplus in July 2016

    Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (15/08) that the trade balance of Indonesia showed a surplus of USD $598 million in July 2016, down from a USD $879.2 million surplus in the preceding month and considerably below analyst forecasts. Although Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, booked a USD $4.2 billion trade surplus in the first seven months of 2016, concern about Indonesia's weakening exports and imports persist. Faster falling imports (compared to exports) explains the trade surplus.

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  • Indonesia's Purchasing Power Weaker? See Cash Outflow & Inflation

    Indonesia's Purchasing Power Weaker? See Cash Outflow & Inflation

    Whereas Indonesia's inflation pace usually accelerates markedly ahead of the Idul Fitri due to rising consumer spending,  the relatively moderate inflation in June (0.66 percent m/m) can be taken as a sign that Indonesia's purchasing power is still rather weak. Another sign that indicates weak purchasing power is that the amount of cash in circulation in Indonesia during the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations fell short of the central bank's initial estimates. Consumption of unsubsidized fuels, however, has nearly doubled.

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  • Indonesia's Idul Fitri Holiday Exodus Reached Peak in the Weekend

    Indonesia's Idul Fitri Holiday Exodus Reached Peak in the Weekend

    At the first day of Indonesia's Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July 2016), the capital city of Jakarta has become relatively quiet as some 6.7 million Jakartans are estimated to have left the city to spend a couple of days with their families in the suburban or rural areas (a tradition called mudik). The peak of the exodus occurred on Saturday-Sunday and choked toll gates in the Greater Jakarta area. Meanwhile, the number of air passengers during this year's Idul Fitri is expected to be the highest ever, supported by higher purchasing power and better airport and flight services.

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  • Consumer Price Index Indonesia Update: 3.45% y/y Inflation in June

    Consumer Price Index Indonesia Update: 3.45% y/y Inflation in June

    Inflation in Indonesia accelerated slightly more than expected last month. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), inflation reached 3.45 percent (y/y) in June 2016, up from 3.33 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Initially, Indonesia's monthly inflation pace in June was forecast above 1 percent. However, over the past week estimates were cut to around 0.55 percent (m/m) as food prices were largely under control (even though prices of some staple foods - such as chicken meat and eggs - were still rising).

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  • Indonesia's Food & Beverage Industry Threatened by Sugar Shortage

    Indonesia's Food & Beverage Industry Threatened by Sugar Shortage

    Several companies in Indonesia's food and beverage industry may need to cease production altogether as there is a shortage of sugar ahead of the Idul Fitri celebrations (which mark the end of the Ramadan month). Adhi Lukman, Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (Gapmmi), said there are at least ten companies that are in direct need of new sugar supplies for their production process. Without new sugar supplies, the factories will simply need to be shut down temporarily.

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  • Consumer Price Index Update Indonesia: June Inflation to Exceed 1% m/m

    Consumer Price Index Update Indonesia: June Inflation May Exceed 1% m/m

    A survey, conducted by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia, BI), indicates that Indonesian inflation has risen 0.59 percent in the first week of June 2016, implying that there is a big chance that inflation will reach beyond the 1 percent (m/m) level in the full-month, perhaps even touching 2 percent (m/m). The main cause of inflationary pressures in Indonesia in this month is food prices. Amid Ramadan festivities - which boost demand for food items - prices of beef, chicken meat, cooking oil, eggs, onions, and chilies have risen.

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  • Indonesia's May Cement Sales Up 6.2%, Next Month's Sales Could Fall

    Indonesia's May Cement Sales Up 6.2%, Next Month's Sales Could Fall

    Indonesia's cement sales rose 6.2 percent (y/y) to 5.1 million tons in May 2016, the highest monthly figure so far in 2016. As the property sector of Indonesia remains subdued amid sluggish demand and development, growth in cement sales is regarded to be the result of infrastructure development. Data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) show that Indonesia's cement sales total 24.1 million tons in the first five months of 2016, up 3.9 percent (y/y) from sales in the same period one year earlier.

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  • Indonesia's Mudik Travelers Estimated to Rise in 2016

    Indonesia's Mudik Travelers Estimated to Rise in 2016

    The Transportation Ministry of Indonesia predicts that there will be around 18 million people traveling back to their places of origin ahead of this year's Idul Fitri celebrations (the days that mark the end of the Ramadan fasting month). This prediction is 3.3 percent higher than the flow of people during last year's Idul Fitri (17.4 million). The annual exodus of Indonesian workers and professionals from the cities back to their hometowns - to spend some days with their parents - ahead of Idul Fitri (Lebaran) is called mudik in Indonesian.

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  • Inflation Indonesia: Heightened Money Circulation due to Ramadan & Idul Fitri

    Inflation Indonesia: Heightened Money Circulation due to Ramadan & Idul Fitri

    The holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) is set to start in early June. One month later Indonesia will celebrate Idul Fitri (Lebaran), the celebration that marks the end of the Ramadan month. During Idul Fitri millions of Indonesians will travel back to their places of origin to spend some time with their families, a tradition called mudik. Although the Ramadan is a month characterized by self-control, this month and the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always cause rising consumption of food products as well as rising consumer spending on clothes, shoes, bags, and other articles.

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Latest Columns Idul Fitri

  • Islam & Indonesian Culture: Impact of Idul Fitri on the Economy

    Islam & Indonesian Culture: Impact of Idul Fitri on the Economy

    Next week Indonesia's financial and stock markets are closed for Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran or Eid al-Fitr), the celebrations that mark the end of the holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan). As usual, during the Ramadan month (that started in early June) business activities in Indonesia start to slow and this slowdown will reach its "peak" during the Idul Fitri holiday, a national holiday (from Monday 4 July to Friday 8 July) when some 17.6 million Indonesians who live and work in the bigger cities will return to their places of origin for a couple of days (a tradition called mudik).

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  • Food & Beverage Industry Indonesia: Rising Consumption on Ramadan & Idul Fitri

    Food & Beverage Industry Indonesia: Rising Consumption on Ramadan & Idul Fitri

    Turnover in Indonesia's processed food and beverage industry is expected to rise 10 percent (m/m) to IDR 440 trillion (approx. USD $32.4 billion) in the second quarter of 2016 from IDR 400 trillion in the preceding quarter. This growth is expected to come on the back of Islamic celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) that always trigger rising consumption. Although the Ramadan is the holy fasting month for Muslims - implying a focus on self-control - dinner and early breakfast 'parties' boost turnover in the nation's food and beverage industry.

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  • Inflation Update Indonesia: Mounting Seasonal Pressures in June

    Inflation Update Indonesia: Mounting Seasonal Pressures in June

    The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) predicts mounting inflationary pressures in the months June and July due to the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities, the possible impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, and the new school year. Bank Indonesia expects to see inflation at 0.66 percent month-to-month (m/m) in June 2015, particularly driven by volatile food prices (a normal phenomenon ahead of Idul Fitri). On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to accelerate to 7.40 percent, from 7.15 percent in May.

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  • Indonesia Market Update: June Trade Balance and July Inflation

    Indonesia Market Update: June Trade Balance and July Inflation

    According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).

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  • Agus Martowardojo: Indonesia's July 2014 Inflation Outpaces July Average

    Agus Martowardojo: Indonesian Inflation Higher than Average in July 2014

    Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.

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  • Indonesia Financial Update: Analysis June Inflation and May Trade Balance

    Indonesia Financial Update: Analysis June Inflation and May Trade Balance

    Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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  • Jakarta Composite Index Climbs 0.57%; Indonesian Rupiah Down 0.51%

    Jakarta Composite Index Climbs 0.57%; Indonesian Rupiah Down 0.51%

    Completely opposite to our expectations, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) managed to climb 0.57 percent to 4,862.02 points on Wednesday (07/05). The gain was unexpected as there were no clear factors that could provide positive market sentiments. Moreover, today's Asian stock indices were mostly down. Coincidence or not, tomorrow Bank Indonesia will announce whether its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) - currently set at 7.50 percent - will be changed or maintained.

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  • Indonesia's Inflation Eases to 8.40% as September Shows Deflation of 0.35%

    After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.

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  • Official Press Release of Bank Indonesia: BI Rate up 25 bps to 7.25%

    It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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  • Despite Higher Idul Fitri Consumption, Indonesia May Not Reach GDP Target

    Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.

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