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Today's Headlines Ramadan
Last month we started our inflation update stating that “the global threat of inflation has not reached Indonesia yet”. One month later, it now seems that a high inflation cycle has arrived in Indonesia; one that may continue in the next couple of months.
On Wednesday 6 April 2022 Indonesia Investments released the March 2022 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses key economic, political and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of March 2022.
It was already known that –just like in 2020– the Indonesian government would ban the traditional mudik this year (mudik, which is a distinctive feature of Indonesian culture, refers to the exodus of millions of city-dwellers toward their places of origin where they typically spend a few days to celebrate the end of the Ramadan month).
On Wednesday (05.05.2021) Indonesia Investments released the April 2021 edition of its monthly report. In the report we track important developments - from the perspective of politics, the economy and social matters - that were influential (and impacted on the Indonesian economy) last month.
In line with expectations, Indonesia’s inflation rate remained low despite the start of the Ramadan in the second week of April 2021. While the Ramadan typically gives rise to a big spike in food prices, the COVID-19 crisis has curbed demand in society.
It was already known that –just like in 2020– the Indonesian government would ban the traditional mudik this year (mudik, which is a distinctive feature of Indonesian culture, refers to the exodus of millions of city-dwellers toward their places of origin where they spend a few days to celebrate the end of the Ramadan month).
Indonesia’s inflation rate was unusually mild in May 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.07 percent month-on-month (m/m) only.
Although Indonesia’s May consumer prices rose at their quickest pace in more than a year (which exceeded our expectations), Indonesian inflation remains at a comfortable level (for Indonesian standards).
Stakeholders in Indonesia's food and beverage industry expect to see a 15 percent increase in sales during the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri celebrations (compared to normal conditions). Although the Ramadan is Muslims' fasting month, it is also a period when household consumption tends to rise sharply in Indonesia, specifically spending on food and drinks as well as clothes, bags and shoes grows significantly.
Indonesia's retail sales declined in July 2017 in line with the return to normal consumption patterns after the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations ended. This is reflected in Bank Indonesia's retail sales index that showed a 3.3 percent decline year-on-year (y/y), after a 6.3 percent (y/y) increase in the preceding month. The decline in Indonesia's retail sales occurred in both food and non-food groups.
Latest Columns Ramadan
With the Ramadan month just having started, it is important to take a look at food prices in Indonesia. The Ramadan-Idul Fitri period is typically a period when prices rise amid a significant increase in demand.
For Indonesia, the month of April 2021 was particularly dominated by the arrival of Ramadan, the holy fasting month for the Muslim community. From the evening of 12 April 2021 Muslims fast (typically from sunrise to sunset) up to 12 May 2021. It is also known as a period of intensified praying and reading the Qur’an for the Muslim community as well as higher focus on generosity.
It is highly unlikely to see the continuation of deflation in April. Last month (March 2017) Indonesia recorded 0.02 percent of deflation, primarily on the back of easing food prices amid the big harvest season. This harvest season will continue into April and therefore we expect few (to none) inflationary pressures stemming from food products. However, administered price adjustments (specifically another round of higher electricity tariffs in March) will impact of April's inflation figure, while consumer prices may also start to feel the impact of the approaching Ramadan month.
Next week Indonesia's financial and stock markets are closed for Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran or Eid al-Fitr), the celebrations that mark the end of the holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan). As usual, during the Ramadan month (that started in early June) business activities in Indonesia start to slow and this slowdown will reach its "peak" during the Idul Fitri holiday, a national holiday (from Monday 4 July to Friday 8 July) when some 17.6 million Indonesians who live and work in the bigger cities will return to their places of origin for a couple of days (a tradition called mudik).
The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.
Turnover in Indonesia's processed food and beverage industry is expected to rise 10 percent (m/m) to IDR 440 trillion (approx. USD $32.4 billion) in the second quarter of 2016 from IDR 400 trillion in the preceding quarter. This growth is expected to come on the back of Islamic celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) that always trigger rising consumption. Although the Ramadan is the holy fasting month for Muslims - implying a focus on self-control - dinner and early breakfast 'parties' boost turnover in the nation's food and beverage industry.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) predicts mounting inflationary pressures in the months June and July due to the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities, the possible impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, and the new school year. Bank Indonesia expects to see inflation at 0.66 percent month-to-month (m/m) in June 2015, particularly driven by volatile food prices (a normal phenomenon ahead of Idul Fitri). On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to accelerate to 7.40 percent, from 7.15 percent in May.
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.
Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.
