Although the peak of repatriated fund flows and tax declarations - in the context of Indonesia's tax amnesty program - are expected to occur in the months September and October 2016, there is room for concern whether the ambitious targets of the government can be achieved. Between the launch of the program on 18 July and 1 August 2016 the government only saw IDR 98.43 billion (approx. USD $7.6 million) of additional income from 464 tax payers, while it targets to collect a total of IDR 165 trillion (approx. USD $12.7 billion) within a nine-month period.

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Before the end of 2016 the Indonesian government plans to have imposed a controversial excise on plastic packaging. Earlier this year the government had already suggested a IDR 200 (approx. USD $0.02) excise duty for food and beverage products wrapped in plastic packages. However, with all spotlights focused on Indonesia's tax amnesty program this plastic wrapping excise tax has been off analysts' radar. Lets take a closer look at this excise: what is it and why does the government of Southeast Asia's largest economy want to implement it?

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Up to 9 June 2016 tax revenue realization in Indonesia reached IDR 364.1 trillion (approx. USD $27.4 billion), or 29 percent of the target that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This disappointing score is the result of (1) a too ambitious tax income realization target set by the government, (2) low commodity prices (particularly crude oil; curbing tax income from the nation's exports), (3) taxpayers' tax restitution (which rose 32.5 percent y/y in the January-June period), and (4) Indonesia's slower-than-expected economic growth.

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Contrary to expectations, Standard & Poor's (S&P), the most conservative among the world's top three credit rating agencies, maintained Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+ with a positive outlook. The BB+ rating is the highest junk level, one notch below investment grade. S&P left the door open for a future upgrade but the Indonesian government will need to enhance its fiscal performance. Issues that block an upgrade are rising budget deficits in the years ahead and the decline in Indonesia's corporate credit quality.

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Due to the lengthy talks needed among the Indonesian government and House of Representatives (DPR) about the Tax Amnesty Bill, there may be a further delay in implementing the bill that was originally planned to be implemented in early 2016. The government's proposed Tax Amnesty Bill offers low tax rates (and protection from prosecution) to those who declare untaxed wealth and repatriate their funds back to Indonesia. Through this bill the government aims to finance the widening budget deficit and obtain fresh tax revenue.

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Local media in Indonesia report that the Indonesian government has a list of 6,000 names of Indonesians that are ready to repatriate their funds in order to take advantage of the tax incentive provided by the Tax Amnesty Bill. This controversial bill, which is currently being discussed by Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), makes it attractive for tax evaders to repatriate their undeclared wealth into Indonesia as they are offered tax incentives and protection from prosecution.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to impose an excise tax of at least IDR 200 (approx. USD $0.02) on plastic bottles and packaging. This proposal is part of talks about revisions to the 2016 State Budget (APNB-P 2016). Later this week, the government will discuss the matter with Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR). Around the globe several countries (including Great Britain and India) have imposed such an excise tax on plastic bottles and packages, both for additional tax revenue and as a measure to protect the environment.

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Due to weaker-than-expected revenue in 2016, the government of Indonesia has to cut government spending by IDR 50.6 trillion (approx. USD $3.8 billion) this year. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro informed that the government is currently in the middle of discussing revisions of the 2016 State Budget (APBN 2016). Weaker-than-expected government revenue is primarily the cause of weaker-than-targeted tax revenue. The government will also revise its inflation, average rupiah rate, and average oil price targets. Despite the expected cut

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The government of Indonesia plans to raise non-taxable income by 50 percent from IDR 36 million (approx. USD $2,727) to IDR 54 million (approx. USD $4,090) in a bid to strengthen people's purchasing power and encourage household consumption. Although at first sight this move should lead to curtailed (income) tax collection, the Indonesian government expects that rising household consumption and investment will lead to higher value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax revenue. This should then add 0.16 percentage point to the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced on Tuesday (05/04) that Indonesia's tax revenue reached IDR 194 trillion (approx. USD $14.7 billion) in the first quarter of 2016, down 2.1 percent from tax revenue in the same period one year earlier. Brodjonegoro blamed this poor result on lower income from value-added taxes (VATs) due to tax restitution and people's low consumption amid sluggish economic growth. Meanwhile, he informed that Indonesia plans to cut the personal income tax, a move aimed at boosting tax compliance.

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On 25 September 2019, only a few days before Indonesia’s House of Representatives (in Indonesian: Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, or DPR) finished its 2014-2019 term, it approved the 2020 State Budget bill (UU APBN 2020).

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The Indonesian government expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to have expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2018. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati detects a strengthening domestic economy, supported by improved tax income and improved government spending in Q1-2018.

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Indonesia's Directorate General of Taxes claims that tax revenue realization in Indonesia will grow by a double-digit figure (on a year-on-year basis) in January 2018. This result comes on the back of strengthening commodity prices that bring in more tax money for the government.

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Indonesia may see a IDR 120 trillion (approx. USD $8.8 billion) tax shortfall in 2017. The Indonesian government set a IDR 1,472.7 trillion (approx. USD $109 billion) tax revenue target (including customs and duties) in full-year 2017. However, up to 15 December only IDR 1,211.5 trillion has been collected. Traditionally Indonesia delivers a tax shortfall at the end of the year. This is expected to continue in 2018.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 March 2017, so now it is time to take a look at the results. Although Indonesia's amnesty program has been labelled as one of the most - if not the most - successful amnesty programs ever around the globe (in terms of asset declarations), there is plenty of room for disappointment. Based on data from Indonesia's Tax Office, less than one million Indonesians joined the program. For many nations this would be a great number. For Indonesia this number means tax evasion remains rampant, implying the government misses out on much-needed tax revenue.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program will end soon. The nine-month program was designed to finish on 31 March 2017. Although the program has become the world's most successful tax amnesty program, it will fail to solve Indonesia's tax revenue collection problems. And with tax revenue being the largest source for public spending capacity, low tax compliance in Southeast Asia's largest economy obstructs more rapid development of the Indonesian economy.

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Indonesia's budget deficit in 2016 is estimated to have reached 2.46 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), below the government's forecast of 2.7 percent of GDP and at a safe distance from the legal cap of 3.0 percent of GDP that is stipulated by Indonesian law. This is a positive matter that is supported by modestly growing tax revenue. In full-year 2016 tax revenue realization reached IDR 1,105.2 trillion (approx. USD $83 billion), only 81.6 percent of the target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (APBN-P 2016) but slightly higher than tax revenue realization in the preceding year.

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Indonesia's tax revenue realization in the first half of 2016 was disappointing. According to the latest data, Southeast Asia's largest economy collected a total of IDR 518.4 trillion (approx. USD $39.6 billion) worth of tax revenue (including customs and excise) in the first six months of 2016, down 3.3 percent (y/y) from tax revenue realization in the same period one year earlier, and only 33.7 percent of total targeted tax revenue (IDR 1,539.2 trillion) set in the revised 2016 State Budget. The disappointing performance is mainly due to weak tax income from the oil and gas sector.

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Without giving too much insight into the details and regulations, Indonesian President Joko Widodo launched the tax amnesty program on Friday (01/07) during a speech in front of hundreds of businessmen and officials at Indonesia's tax office headquarters in Jakarta. The tax amnesty program - approved by the House of Representatives in late June - is a strategy to boost state tax income by (temporarily) granting amnesty as well as offering attractive incentives to (former) tax evaders. In return, the tax dodgers have to declare and (if wanted) repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia.

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In the past two weeks, two of the big international credit rating agencies released new reports about Indonesia's fiscal situation. Both agencies affirmed Indonesia's sovereign debt rating: Fitch Ratings kept Indonesia at BBB-/stable (investment grade class) and Standard & Poor's (S&P) maintained Indonesia at BB+/positive (highest junk level, one notch below investment grade). S&P's decision to keep Indonesia within the junk level category was met with disappointment among investors and Indonesian government officials but perhaps not that surprisingly.

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